U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

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The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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475. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
LOL whatta dork


Their mets must think the wave will not fracture and/or stay buried in the Caribbean.

Both are possible solutions.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Dora sounds delicous!.Is she a glazed donut with chocolate icing?


Nah, she's more of the raspberry kind.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32801
Quoting weaverwxman:
well I see the hurricane hunters are going to fix Dora thats good I think she needs repairs or will when they get there
It is a specific intensity change data collection experiment, "East Pacific Decay Experiment"

See page 32 of this (LARGE!) document: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/HFP2011/HFP_2011.pdf

A snippet:
"Primary IFEX Goal: 3 - Improve understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for
a TC at all stages of its lifecycle
Experiment Objectives:
The observational objective is to obtain SST and flight-level, surface, and profile wind observations in
tropical cyclones over several days during the decay process over cold water. Observations must be
sufficient to obtain a reliable estimate of the cyclone%u2019s maximum sustained surface wind."
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 212038
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 42.3N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 47.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 51.6N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 55.0N 22.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nah, its more like a doughnut to me.

Dora sounds delicous!.Is she a glazed donut with chocolate icing?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17793
Satellite estimates on Cindy show that she is gradually dropping pressure:
10 AM: 995.8
12 PM: 995.3
1 PM: 994.7
2 PM: 994.4
3 PM: 994.1
Say it will be 65 mph or 70 mph at the update
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Tropical Storm Bret is STILL at 40 mph, Cindy holding at 60 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32801
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know the National Hurricane Center will take the conservative route and keep this at 60 mph, or increase it 5 mph or so, but this has the appearance of a hurricane.

It looks like Noel from 07.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17793
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Quoting Levi32:


Actually I have heard little about that. All I know is that HAARP deals with auroral research. How could that lead to conspiracy theories lol. I'll have to read up on it.

Gotta get back to work now. Back later.


Thanks. What I've read, among all the junk around, is that some CT claim that project Haarp is a project for weather manipulation, to be used as a weapon and that it's been made portable in aircraft carriers to create an atmospheric high pressure and manipulate weather...

Anyhow, there are some replicas around the world...

"In America, there are two related ionospheric heating facilities: the HIPAS, near Fairbanks, Alaska, which was dismantled in 2009, and (currently offline for reconstruction) one at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico. The European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association (EISCAT) operates an ionospheric heating facility, capable of transmitting over 1 GW effective radiated power (ERP), near Troms, Norway.[13] Russia has the Sura Ionospheric Heating Facility, in Vasilsursk near Nizhniy Novgorod, capable of transmitting 190 MW ERP."
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meanwhile:

Southern Chile emergency after heavy snowstorms
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Does Dora have a pinwheel eye?


Nah, its more like a doughnut to me.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32801
Quoting wxgeek723:
Does Dora have a pinwheel eye?

No, it's way too big to be a pinwheel eye.
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The July ENSO models update have Neutral thru the end of 2011.

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Does Dora have a pinwheel eye?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3713
Quoting P451:

Soccorro Island.
It's inhabited only by birds. Perhaps Angry Birds.

Hurricane Linda peaked at 190mph and went right over it in the late 90s.


Google Maps shows an airstrip with two military helicopters and a twin-engine plane on an apron that looks like it's missing its right stabilizer. There's a cluster of buildings, a dock with small boats and another military helicopter on the far southwest corner. Wikipedia says "In 1957 the Mexican Navy established a naval base on Socorro and has had a permanent presence on the island since then."
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Quoting AllStar17:
What kind of a forecast is this?
Inaccuweather

Seriously? He really didn't make an actual forecast, unless "See ya you'll be dead in the next 24hrs" is a serious forecast for Bret and Cindy. And his bit on Dora... oh my.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wow...

Afternoon all.
my thoughts exactly lol

Guy doesn't even know what he's talking about...if we see anything from the wave it will be out of the Caribbean around the Bahamas. He talks about the outflow of Dora, but you can't even really see it on the infrared there...I think he was referring to the CDO. And then the comment about Dora looking like it might be pulling in convection from the NW...gee, ya think?

and my favorite quote,

"look at the infrared...how it just like AWW MAN, it just plows EVERYTHING IN ITS PATH!"


sorry to be such a critic, but seeing how many people pay on that site, I would expect some better info.
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Quoting AllStar17:
What kind of a forecast is this?
Inaccuweather

That guy is a nut job
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Here in W. Palm Beach its 93 with a heat index of 102 and honestly with 56% humidity its not bad...I actually did some yard work and it was fine. Its not common for us to have such low humidity levels...especially at the end of july.
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Quoting P451:


She's got spokes. Nice looking car rim.

I forget...aren't those individual vorticies?

Yes, "mesovorticies".

I *think* Dora's peak has come and gone.


She'll only be a cat5 if post-storm analysis warrants it.

NOAA SSD ADT nums down from a peak of 7.1 to 6.3, too: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/tex t/04E-list.txt
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I know the National Hurricane Center will take the conservative route and keep this at 60 mph, or increase it 5 mph or so, but this has the appearance of a hurricane.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32801
Apollo 11 TV and How it happened: pdf



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Quoting jonelu:
I wonder what Cindy and Bret will do to our friends in Europe..
Dooms Day for Europe.What a catastrophe.
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well I see the hurricane hunters are going to fix Dora thats good I think she needs repairs or will when they get there
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Quoting AllStar17:
What kind of a forecast is this?
Inaccuweather


Wow...

Afternoon all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32801
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:


they've taken the comedic route in trying to get people to watch lol


Well their forecast for the tropical wave is comical, too.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Levi, usually in many places in the internet they comment about project Haarp that is located there in Alaska. There are a lot of junk ideas, disinformation, conspiracy theories about it.
What is really behind the project or what is the serious, local state position about it?


Actually I have heard little about that. All I know is that HAARP deals with auroral research. How could that lead to conspiracy theories lol. I'll have to read up on it.

Gotta get back to work now. Back later.
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Quoting AllStar17:
What kind of a forecast is this?
Inaccuweather


Jim forgot to take his meds..he was too excited about Dora at the end..LOL
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Quoting AllStar17:
What kind of a forecast is this?
Inaccuweather
LOL whatta dork
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Quoting AllStar17:
What kind of a forecast is this?
Inaccuweather


they've taken the comedic route in trying to get people to watch lol
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is the combined avg temperature in the country near any records? seems to be smoking hot everywhere
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What kind of a forecast is this?
Inaccuweather
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Quoting P451:

Soccorro Island.
It's inhabited only by birds. Perhaps Angry Birds.

Hurricane Linda peaked at 190mph and went right over it in the late 90s.



Here it goes... Maybe miss it N

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Quoting P451:


It's just an active year is all. Weather isn't static....which is something a lot of people fail to remember. Always seeking some answer for why "today" wasn't exactly the listed "average" temperature or weather for the date.

An active year, yes. Extraordinarily active. Record-breakingly active. And there've been a lot of such active years lately.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13789
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, and in fact, I have seen it hotter here in Fairbanks, Alaska at 65N latitude than Puerto Rico on a few days this summer.


Levi, usually in many places in the internet they comment about project Haarp that is located there in Alaska. There are a lot of junk ideas, disinformation, conspiracy theories about it.
What is really behind the project or what is the serious, local state position about it?
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42 Yrs Ago this afternoon, Neil and Buzz Blasted Off from Tranquility Base to start the

Orbital rendezvous with Mike Collins and the trip back home...

The Return to Orbit
Corrected Transcript and Commentary Copyright 1995 by Eric M. Jones.


124:21:54 Aldrin: 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, Abort Stage, Engine Arm, Ascent, Proceed.

[They launch at 124:22:00. Note that, now that they have launched, the LM call sign is once again "Eagle"]

[Buzz gets the 16-mm camera started about 6 seconds after liftoff.]

124:22:07 Aldrin: (Static) (Garbled) shadow. Beautiful.

124:22:09 Aldrin: 26, 36 feet per second up. Standby for the pitchover.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like more dry air for the wave.
The wave have to moisten it's environment.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Some years ago, one of the lesser football teams here in Scotland beat the biggest team in the land 2-0 in a cup match. Inverness Caledonias Thistle vs Celtic. ICT are known simply as 'Caley' to their fans.

The next day, the newspaper headline was -

Super Caley Go Ballistic, Celtic Are Atrocious

I thought that was brilliant.


+ 10

Does Dick Van Dyke know about this?
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W
.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DORA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 22/2000Z
B. NOAA3 0104E DORA
C. 22/1600Z
D. 19.8N 1110.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE DORA
NEAR 21.5N 113.0W AT 24/0000Z.
JWP
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One positive thing about the 100's in Texas the past 2 months we have No ground moisture so we have lower humidity and not much of a heat index if you can take the temps near 110 in the shade you are good to go. :)
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Quoting nigel20:
Looks like more dry air for the wave.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17793
Quoting jonelu:
I wonder what Cindy and Bret will do to our friends in Europe..


Won't be more than a balmy breeze by the time they reach here.
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Wow.. on sunlinepr (418) radar/sat., it looks as though the eye has a face that smiles then grimaces.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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