U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

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The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting aquak9:

uuhh...well what is "future 90L" ? Like , where's it at?


XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.13N/53.23W


1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW

LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
If Cindy can fire some more convection in the eyewall, we may get a stronger system at 11PM. That is, if it continues the way it is for five more hours.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting wxmobilejim:
What is everyone's thoughts on future 90L?


Well, still up in the air as to development or track. Models take it from TX undeveloped, to east coast more developed. Definitely worth a watch I'd say.
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Quoting ncstorm:
latest NAM run..who by the way has been doing well on the atlantic tropical systems so far this season..

Link

A Bonnie-like track?
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Quoting aquak9:

uuhh...well what is "future 90L" ? Like , where's it at?

I guess I should have said catl wave.
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it's ok keeper- I think I'd be screaming too if I was ya'll. For me it'd be ok...but it's like the inverse of winter for me, you know how bad I get when it's cold.

Good job on the tint- good deal that the boss approved it.

Keep fridges n freezers full- they work better when they're full.

When are ya'll gonna get a reprieve?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
Quoting emcf30:


That graph shows a narrow slot of at least 145 knot winds within the eye wall. I know it is GFDL but don't know the validity of the winds.
The winds in that narrow slot in the image in post 479 are above the surface level.

Hurricane categories are determined by surface, 10 meter above ground/water, winds.
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Quoting aquak9:

uuhh...well what is "future 90L" ? Like , where's it at?

That's that wave in the CATL approaching the northern Antilles that the models keep picking up on developing in the southern Bahamas. NOGAPS wants to sling that thing right into South Carolina...reminds me of Hugo (at least the track anyhow)
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sorry forgot caplock was on must be the heat
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting aquak9:
hi keeper

I hope ya'll have ac; hope you're keeping all the filters clean (I know you are, I know what kinda coffee you drink, heh heh heh)

no carbonated beverages
nothing with caffiene
white grape juice with crucshed ice is good and not too sweet
add some cranberry juice and it's almost like a party
WE ARE GOOD WATER PUPPY I CLEANED ALL THE AC'S LAST NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT TWO DAYS BEFORE THE WIFE WENT OUT AND GOT 100.00 DOLLARS WORTH OF LIMO BLACK WINDOW TINT AND ALL MY WINDOWS ARE NOW TINTED REFLECTING 90 PERCENT OF HEAT AND UV RAYS OUT AND THE TEMP INSIDE MY UNIT IS HOLDING AT A NICE 71 72 F READING

SO IAM COOL

JUST HOPE THE GRID HOLDS UP LAST TIME WE GOT THIS HOT 100 MILLION PEOPLE LOST POWER FOR 3 DAYS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting wxmobilejim:
What is everyone's thoughts on future 90L?

uuhh...well what is "future 90L" ? Like , where's it at?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Cat 5?


That graph shows a narrow slot of at least 145 knot winds within the eye wall. I know it is GFDL but don't know the validity of the winds.
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511. JRRP
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What is everyone's thoughts on future 90L?
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Quoting wpb:
noaa 43 to dora 22/2200

must be research flight?
Yes, see post 473
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hi keeper

I hope ya'll have ac; hope you're keeping all the filters clean (I know you are, I know what kinda coffee you drink, heh heh heh)

no carbonated beverages
nothing with caffiene
white grape juice with crucshed ice is good and not too sweet
add some cranberry juice and it's almost like a party
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
506. wpb
noaa 43 to dora 22/2200

must be research flight?
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Quoting P451:


That's what active periods are going to do - produce multiple years of activity.

I fully expect us to return to an inactive period of weather in the near future. When I am not sure.

How long do these active or inactive periods last? 20 years? Our current active tropical cycle is about 15 years old? This active tropical cycle should be coming to a close in the next 5-10 years.

What about weather in general? I don't know. Not sure anyone does.

If we don't return to an inactive period - and 15 years from now we're still active or even more than today - then those of you who continue to try to connect the activity to the theory of global warming - may have something.

The thing is we don't know as of today. As of today all we can do is continue to collect the data.

As to record breaking it's impossible to know for certain given the fact that active weather records only go back so far. Even worse is it has only been the past 20 years or so that we've had such a large number of active recording stations worldwide combined with satellite sensing. It just so happens that we've come to this advanced level of record keeping during an increasingly active period in time.

We unfortunately don't have anything substantial to compare it to.

We can only guess what today's active weather means for the future. We can't be certain.
AMO cycles last about 60-80 years.

So you can expect this warm period in the Atlantic for another 15-20 years.
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Cindy is running to the east now in response to the front that just slapped her...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Thursday 21 July 2011
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.65 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 100.1°F
Dewpoint: 73.2°F
Humidity: 43 %
Wind: W 24 mph
Humidex: 120
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting P451:


That's what active periods are going to do - produce multiple years of activity.

I fully expect us to return to an inactive period of weather in the near future. When I am not sure.

How long do these active or inactive periods last? 20 years? Our current active tropical cycle is about 15 years old? This active tropical cycle should be coming to a close in the next 5-10 years.

What about weather in general? I don't know. Not sure anyone does.

If we don't return to an inactive period - and 15 years from now we're still active or even more than today - then those of you who continue to try to connect the activity to the theory of global warming - may have something.

The thing is we don't know as of today. As of today all we can do is continue to collect the data.

As to record breaking it's impossible to know for certain given the fact that active weather records only go back so far. Even worse is it has only been the past 20 years or so that we've had such a large number of active recording stations worldwide combined with satellite sensing. It just so happens that we've come to this advanced level of record keeping during an increasingly active period in time.

We unfortunately don't have anything substantial to compare it to.

We can only guess what today's active weather means for the future. We can't be certain.
Quoting P451:


That's what active periods are going to do - produce multiple years of activity.

I fully expect us to return to an inactive period of weather in the near future. When I am not sure.

How long do these active or inactive periods last? 20 years? Our current active tropical cycle is about 15 years old? This active tropical cycle should be coming to a close in the next 5-10 years.

What about weather in general? I don't know. Not sure anyone does.

If we don't return to an inactive period - and 15 years from now we're still active or even more than today - then those of you who continue to try to connect the activity to the theory of global warming - may have something.

The thing is we don't know as of today. As of today all we can do is continue to collect the data.

As to record breaking it's impossible to know for certain given the fact that active weather records only go back so far. Even worse is it has only been the past 20 years or so that we've had such a large number of active recording stations worldwide combined with satellite sensing. It just so happens that we've come to this advanced level of record keeping during an increasingly active period in time.

We unfortunately don't have anything substantial to compare it to.

We can only guess what today's active weather means for the future. We can't be certain.
Well said. It is premature to blame something as GLOBAL as weather on man just so we can push our ecoagendas.
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latest NAM run..who by the way has been doing well on the atlantic tropical systems so far this season..

Link
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 212038
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE

I dont think Cindy will have a chance to make it even close to 65 to 75 mph, it appears on satellite that she is loosing more convection than she can refire, Weakening will begin soon...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting ShadyGroveFarm:
I will bet hundreds of people have invested months of time and thousands of dollars getting ready for the Ann Arbor Art Fair. They have to stand there in the heat hoping they get a good crowd and dreading the effect of weather. And you're going to skip it to avoid getting a little sweaty? I bet they'll be glad to read that! Get in your air-conditioned car, go, !!spend some bucks!!, get in your air-conditioned car, go home and hit the pool!


Dr Masters has a pool?? Hey everyone!! DocMasters has a pool!!

POOL PARTY AT DOC'S HOUSE!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
Quoting P451:


That's what active periods are going to do - produce multiple years of activity.

I fully expect us to return to an inactive period of weather in the near future. When I am not sure.

How long do these active or inactive periods last? 20 years? Our current active tropical cycle is about 15 years old? This active tropical cycle should be coming to a close in the next 5-10 years.

What about weather in general? I don't know. Not sure anyone does.

If we don't return to an inactive period - and 15 years from now we're still active or even more than today - then those of you who continue to try to connect the activity to the theory of global warming - may have something.

The thing is we don't know as of today. As of today all we can do is continue to collect the data.

As to record breaking it's impossible to know for certain given the fact that active weather records only go back so far. Even worse is it has only been the past 20 years or so that we've had such a large number of active recording stations worldwide combined with satellite sensing. It just so happens that we've come to this advanced level of record keeping during an increasingly active period in time.

We unfortunately don't have anything substantial to compare it to.

We can only guess what today's active weather means for the future. We can't be certain.


Well Said and I totaly "Agree"

Taco :o)
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Quoting beell:


Their mets must think the wave will not fracture and/or stay buried in the Caribbean.

Both are possible solutions.
yes it is, but it looks like this wave will have its best chance of development if part of it fractures to the north.

This would keep it out of the surface divergence region of the east/central Caribbean and may also allow to consolidate more.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Its funny how EPAC systems take(usually) a couple of days to become a major hurricane, but when it comes to weakening they(Usually) Die out in like a day and a half...
EX: Celia(2010), Darby(2010), Adrian(2011)...

I'm pretty sure Adrian died out because he found out he didn't get a Wikipedia page.
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levi what is your take on the tropical wave approaching the northern leeward islands
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Its funny how EPAC systems take(usually) a couple of days to become a major hurricane, but when it comes to weakening they(Usually) Die out in like a day and a half...
EX: Celia(2010), Darby(2010), Adrian(2011)...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Looking Good Cindy.
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Isn't it crazy how when it gets hot up north everybody goes to pieces. This is everyday summer weather in the south. Consider buying a window unit or 2. Isn't it also crazy how us in the south become totally paralyzed when we get an inch or 2 of snow. Speaking of snow, I would love to strip to my underwear and lay in a big cool pile of SNOW RIGHT NOW!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Yes, it appears so.Umm, not a "pinhole" eye, a "pinwheel" eye.


I have a pair of pinhead eyes....
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TAWX, of coarse its over 25 every single storm that has formed became a hurricane!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting emcf30:
Nice colors


Cat 5?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
ACE so far:
Arlene: 1.63
Bret: 2.95
Cindy: 1.18

Total: 5.76


Pacific ACE is over 25.0.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
I will bet hundreds of people have invested months of time and thousands of dollars getting ready for the Ann Arbor Art Fair. They have to stand there in the heat hoping they get a good crowd and dreading the effect of weather. And you're going to skip it to avoid getting a little sweaty? I bet they'll be glad to read that! Get in your air-conditioned car, go, !!spend some bucks!!, get in your air-conditioned car, go home and hit the pool!
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ACE so far:
Arlene: 1.63
Bret: 2.95
Cindy: 1.18

Total: 5.76
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Patrap:
Dora Viz

Nice
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Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nah, she's more of the raspberry kind.

Ah damn I don't eat raseberry.You can have her.That's two things I don't like about Dora....
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Dora Viz

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Nice colors

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Arlene: 65 mph
Bret: 65 mph
Cindy: 60 mph (May strengthen some more)

I bet the next will be a hurricane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting wxgeek723:
Does Dora have a pinwheel eye?
Yes, it appears so.
Quoting Darren23:

No, it's way too big to be a pinwheel eye.
Umm, not a "pinhole" eye, a "pinwheel" eye.
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If you go to the coast with a Microwave antenna,or a large industrial Microwave used in commercial applications,,and point it to the South, one will not create a invest.


But a reality show could be in da offing maybe.

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475. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
LOL whatta dork


Their mets must think the wave will not fracture and/or stay buried in the Caribbean.

Both are possible solutions.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16768

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.