U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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the 2am two may say 0% has it will be heading in too higher wind shear
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117347
I thought 800pm was now.

I wonder what time zone he's in? +5 hours is like what... GMT?

Ello Gov`na!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Still lots of Dry air NW of the Atl. tropical wave...

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looks like popcorn popping windwd system jason yes we are awake he is testing us
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Wow jason needs glasses cause it says 10% not upped to 20% lol talk about blind.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
800 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

up to 20%

Nope still 10%
Member Since: May 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
669. P451
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



According to the 18z GFS and pretty much every other model, July will finish off with little fanfare.


6z and 18z model runs lack input data. I forget exactly how they operate but they are not "complete" runs. I'm not sure what purpose they serve or how trustworthy they are but I tend to favor 0z and 12z model runs.

Also if you notice there will always be more continuity between 0z and 12z runs --- and between 6z and 18z runs --- but comparing 0z or 12z runs to 6z or 18z there will be differences.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that came out like 5 hours ago



nop thats new lol 8pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117347
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that came out like 5 hours ago


No...It's the 8PM one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
800 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

up to 20%
Member Since: July 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 995 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM
BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


that came out like 5 hours ago
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well jason i think that is thought out very well...i agree totally..
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep what ever becomes of wave ride right along the top of it get caught up in the flow of it
wind shear will kill the tropical wave
Member Since: July 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 995 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM
BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842





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I still see it briefly...
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Quoting P451:


She's got a pretty good eye going. She's attached to some frontal entities though - and I'm not sure she ever was isolated from them. I suspect that Cindy could have served her life classified as a sub-tropical status. Not that it _really_ matters it's just an observation.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Nice TUTT in the Caribbean.

yep what ever becomes of wave ride right along the top of it get caught up in the flow of it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61094
657. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If Cindy can fire some more convection in the eyewall, we may get a stronger system at 11PM. That is, if it continues the way it is for five more hours.





She's got a pretty good eye going. She's attached to some frontal entities though - and I'm not sure she ever was isolated from them. I suspect that Cindy could have served her life classified as a sub-tropical status. Not that it _really_ matters it's just an observation.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting sunlinepr:


Declining in intensity fairly rapid...Expect approximately 130-140 mph by 8PM PDT...T-Numbers should decrease significantly with the eye feature barely visible.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
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Quoting alfabob:



Where's this buoy at Bob?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting P451:


And the downward slide begins for Dora. Had a real nice 18-24 hour run there at borderline Cat 5 intensity.

SHIPS has her gone in 72 hours or less.

spin down just as fast as it spun up but most do it in epac basin
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61094
2 new systems 144 hours (trust the model??)

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651. P451
11:21 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
04E/MH/D/C4



And the downward slide begins for Dora. Had a real nice 18-24 hour run there at borderline Cat 5 intensity.

SHIPS has her gone in 72 hours or less.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
650. Stormchaser2007
11:21 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Nice TUTT in the Caribbean.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 16080
649. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:19 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Yeah, in all likelihood, Bret is now a tropical depression:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
648. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
11:19 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting wxmobilejim:

What are your thoughts on this KEEP?



watch wait see

as always
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61094
647. alfabob
11:19 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
646. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
11:18 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:


going to be a crazy season
strap yourself in gonna be a long bumpy ride ahead
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61094
645. wxmobilejim
11:13 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.13N/53.43W


so it begins

What are your thoughts on this KEEP?
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644. Patrap
11:12 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
643. Neapolitan
11:10 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Nevermind; I was a bit too quick on the trigger. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14846
642. Patrap
11:10 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
TCHP GOM




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
641. mcluvincane
11:08 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Thanks Levi, I was just about to ask if you posted today along with your tidbit
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640. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:08 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
I do think we have finally seen the last of Tropical Storm Bret...Should be downgraded to a TD at 11PM.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
639. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
11:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
04E/MH/D/C4

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638. mcluvincane
11:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:



holy we mother of gold this wait in tell a storm gets in the gulf with light wind shear


going to be a crazy season
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637. Patrap
11:06 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
636. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
11:06 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.13N/53.43W


so it begins
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61094
635. Hurrykane
11:05 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
The reality here is that our central Atlantic wave will have the dry air to deal with until it reaches the islands, at which point that issue will be handed off in exchange for a less favorable upper-level environment as the big ridge over the eastern U.S. shears it an promotes sinking air along ~25N. However, the GFS actually shows a pretty favorable environment off of the SE US next week as the nose of that 200mb high sticks out over the western Atlantic on the western side of the TUTT. This is a great pattern for ventilation of this area when the TUTT is off to the east. The high is not deep-layered off of the SE US either, as the GFS has a weak trailing trough at 500mb along the SE US coastline directly beneath the 200mb ridge at 144 hours, supported by some other models as well. The deep-layered high pressure structure doesn't show up until you get over towards Arkansas. The reason this matters is because a deep-layer high promotes a lot of subsidence and destroys thunderstorm activity. However, a 200mb high is just what we want (for development), because it promotes divergence aloft and supports convection.

The message here is that our tropical wave won't have a great chance to suddenly develop anytime soon, but gradual development may be possible as it passes nearby the Caribbean islands, and if it curves up towards the SE US coast, it may have a better chance closer to the coast. Notice that the models are no longer as excited about recurving it out to sea either, as the pattern I've been talking about is unveiling itself as one that promotes a more westward track.

GFS 144-hour 200mb:



GFS 144-hour 500mb:



Back after work.


Thanks Levi...have you been reading my mind again?
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634. Tazmanian
11:05 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ehhhh...






holy we mother of gold this wait in tell a storm gets in the gulf with light wind shear
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117347
633. Patrap
11:04 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
.."Instant Karma is gonna get ya"..

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632. AtHomeInTX
11:03 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:


I'm not sure but it looks to deepen once it hits the Bahamas..


That would go with what Levi just said. Be one to watch for sure.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
631. CybrTeddy
11:02 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Week 1:


Week 2:



MJO phase supports activity off Africa first next week and the first week of August.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 25342
630. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
11:02 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
todays weather history
toronto ontario canada
highest july overnight low temp RECORD
highest july daily max RECORD
highest daily max RECORD since all records began

TODAY MARKS DAY 20 OF NO RAIN WITH TOTAL FOR THE MONTH 4.4MM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61094
629. Stormchaser2007
11:01 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Week 1:


Week 2:

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628. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:00 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Ehhhh...



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
627. ncstorm
11:00 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ouch! How strong a storm is that showing?


I'm not sure but it looks to deepen once it hits the Bahamas..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17915
626. Barefootontherocks
10:58 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Quoting aquak9:


well right now he only has one screen name. And no, I ain't tellin'. But a few folks have already figured it out.


Wish ST would use the original handle. Contrary to gossip posted in this blog, STORMTOP is not banned. Maybe he lost his password.
...
..
.
NHC discussion at 2pm EDT...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 16N47W TO 6N50W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TPW. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS VERY CLEAR ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE AXIS N OF 11N

Just watching the WaterVaporLoop, I don't see this bunch clouds of doing much of anything. Looks like it may be heading more N already. I don't see much happening for it except dry air and shear. One thing, though, this wave did blaze a trail for those waves behind it and won't be long before the CV waves will not be fighting so much of that dry air that took the punch out of this one. (Complete amateur opinion. Pay me no mind. lol)

What's most interesting on the WVL is the huge upper level flow centered around the E tip of Cuba. Looks like bumper cars at the carnival.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 21265
625. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:57 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
We have to remember, even though there is only one model forecasting development, IIRC, every model has shown it at one point or another.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842

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Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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