U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

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The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


1. Dynamic IP address would mean he would be unblocked every time he restarts his computer

2. Proxy Servers would mean he would be able to access the site regardless of how many IPs they ban


Yep, IP bans are like alarm systems. They only keep out the casual. The determined can get around them easily enough.
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


and he was smart enough to know that?


likely
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


1. Dynamic IP address would mean he would be unblocked every time he restarts his computer

2. Proxy Servers would mean he would be able to access the site regardless of how many IPs they ban


and he was smart enough to know that?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Lo que dijo no fue discriminatorio. Cada idioma lo tiene es propio modo de decir cosas. Español cubano es muy diferente de puertorriqueño español sólo como Caymanian inglés es diferente de jamaiquino o inglés norteamericano


not to mention that you have your pre castro cuban spanish and your post castro sounds like they talk with marbles in their mouth cuban spanish
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


IP address bans which for some reason has not been done to him yet


1. Dynamic IP address would mean he would be unblocked every time he restarts his computer

2. Proxy Servers would mean he would be able to access the site regardless of how many IPs they ban
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
Just finished watching CNN talk about the growing famine in Africa. As the commentator said, America remains the only country that can send massive quantities of food to these 3rd world countries. If only they would get that message and stop terrorizing the hand that feeds them.


3rd world countries bite the US? odd and off topic but hey good trolling
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Quoting Balsero2011:



Papo, por favor no seas prejudicial y descriminador hacia mi raza de esa manera, OK? Porque yo no me burlo de ustedes alla en la isla del encanto: AKA: La extension artificial de este pais, estamos? =).
Lo que dijo no fue discriminatorio. Cada idioma lo tiene es propio modo de decir cosas. Español cubano es muy diferente de puertorriqueño español sólo como Caymanian inglés es diferente de jamaiquino o inglés norteamericano
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...Not came up with a solution for that yet. :)


IP address bans which for some reason has not been done to him yet
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Just finished watching CNN talk about the growing famine in Africa. As the commentator said, America remains the only country that can send massive quantities of food to these 3rd world countries. If only they would get that message and stop terrorizing the hand that feeds them.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting doabarrelroll:


easy until you have to do it 3 times daily then its tiresome and pathetic


Yeah...Not came up with a solution for that yet. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I imagine there's nicer spots in the world, but in my travels I've found the sunsets from Naples to Ft. Myers Beach as good as it gets. I go to the beach there every night when I visit my brother-in-law, who was smart enough to buy a nice home midway between the beach and 41 near the Beach Club 25 years ago for 60k.

60$?! Even with the market still depressed here, nowadays that wouldn't buy a one-car, unattached garage. Kudos to him. ;-)
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Quoting padirescu:


Gee thanks! Just what I needed living in PBI headed into the first "guys" golf trip to Orlando in a long time starting next Thursday. Here's hoping by Tuesday we'll know definitively whether we need to stick around and take care of the family or can go act like an 18 year old again for a few days!



PBI? Whats that
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Getting tired of that unwanted blogger on Wunderground.com? In three easy steps, it will no longer be a problem.

Step 1: Report the blogger

Step 2: Hit the minus button

Step 3: Add 'em to your ignore list

See! Easy as pie!!! :)


easy until you have to do it 3 times daily then its tiresome and pathetic
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just throwing this out there...The central Atlantic tropical wave will pass right through Hebert Box #1. Luckily, it isn't a strong hurricane.


Gee thanks! Just what I needed living in PBI headed into the first "guys" golf trip to Orlando in a long time starting next Thursday. Here's hoping by Tuesday we'll know definitively whether we need to stick around and take care of the family or can go act like an 18 year old again for a few days!


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Getting tired of that unwanted blogger on Wunderground.com? In three easy steps, it will no longer be a problem.

Step 1: Report the blogger

Step 2: Hit the minus button

Step 3: Add 'em to your ignore list

See! Easy as pie!!! :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Good Evening. The current wave at 10% has not been firing much convection but another is starting to emerge on the big loop at around 28W-10N....Point being that the general location of the ITCZ is continuing to slowly rise towards the 10N coreolis threshold as we start heading into August over the next two weeks thus, the frequency of potentialy viable waves is going to start increasing but not all are going to develop. A little "blob" portion of that wave at 28W has already risen up towards 11N so it's really only a matter of time.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Decreasing in intensity fast...Probably not even a Category 4 anymore.



Indeed, it does.
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Decreasing in intensity fast...Probably not even a Category 4 anymore.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting JLPR2:


Is that you JFV? That word is pure cuban. XD

But yes, things can change rapidly in the tropics.



Papo, por favor no seas prejudicial y descriminador hacia mi raza de esa manera, OK? Porque yo no me burlo de ustedes alla en la isla del encanto: AKA: La extension artificial de este pais, estamos? =).
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Still a heat index of 100 here in Massachusetts and it's 9:30!
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JFV=Balsero

Das POOF!
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802. JLPR2
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You shouldn't even have to ask that question. We all know he can't hide. LOL


Hadn't seen the trademark smiley.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not tropical, but too nice not to share, this evening's sunset in Naples:

Nice
I imagine there's nicer spots in the world, but in my travels I've found the sunsets from Naples to Ft. Myers Beach as good as it gets. I go to the beach there every night when I visit my brother-in-law, who was smart enough to buy a nice home midway between the beach and 41 near the Beach Club 25 years ago for 60k.
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something going on at 27 west!!
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Quoting JLPR2:


Is that you JFV? That word is pure cuban. XD

But yes, things can change rapidly in the tropics.
You shouldn't even have to ask that question. We all know he can't hide. LOL
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797. JLPR2
Quoting Balsero2011:


That should change soon.


Is that you JFV? That word is pure cuban. XD

But yes, things can change rapidly in the tropics.
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol. It'll be a close pass to the islands either way.
I know Kori will like his spicy being from La. but how would you like yours ?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
"Death Ridge"

You know its hot when the 591 thickness line is in NYC.



You are showing 500 mb levels. Thickness right now over NYC around 582.

Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


:P

How you doing, Laurie?
Doing ok. HOT. Very overcast today but I could count the rain drops. Lots of lightning and thunder this evening but I felt one drop on my forehead. LOL
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793. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not tropical, but too nice not to share, this evening's sunset in Naples:

Nice


Very Nice!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16860
Balls- aero?

(Laughing too hard- runs away quickly)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26252
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Kori, I am hoping the wave develops(not strong) and enters the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico just so I can curry some crow for you and Levi. LOL


Lol. It'll be a close pass to the islands either way.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Not even a hint of a LLC


That should change soon.
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Just throwing this out there...The central Atlantic tropical wave will pass right through Hebert Box #1. Luckily, it isn't a strong hurricane.

"An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions."

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
787. JLPR2
Quoting HurricaneJeff:
I think the tropical wave on 53 degrees west will not develop... the environment is too dry... but the circulation seems to me pretty good now


I think the exact opposite of everything you said.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not tropical, but too nice not to share, this evening's sunset in Naples:

Nice


Looks so calm..Nice shot.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
I think the tropical wave on 53 degrees west will not develop... the environment is too dry... but the circulation seems to me pretty good now
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* Cindy is down to 50 mph on ATCF: Check

* Bret is a TD, yet to be determined if the NHC makes it his last advisory.

* Dora down to 135 mph on ATCF: check
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Kori, I am hoping the wave develops(not strong) and enters the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico just so I can curry some crow for you and Levi. LOL


:P

How you doing, Laurie?
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782. JLPR2
Not even a hint of a LLC
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not tropical, but, still, 'twas a nice sunset here in Naples:

Nice


Excellent shot!
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Not tropical, but too nice not to share, this evening's sunset in Naples:

Nice
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Statement as of 04:53 PM EDT on July 21, 2011
... Record high temperature tied at Raleigh-Durham Intl Airport NC...a record high temperature of 102 degrees was reached at
Raleigh-Durham Intl Airport NC today. This ties the old record of 102 set in 1952.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my 11PM advisory predictions for all our storms...

* Bret is downgraded to a remnant low...Last advisory

* Cindy is decreased to 50 mph or less.

* Dora goes down to 135-145 mph.


Correct for Cindy.
AL, 03, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 427N, 440W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ,
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Monoxide.
Kori, I am hoping the wave develops(not strong) and enters the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico just so I can curry some crow for you and Levi. LOL
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
going on 9 pm still feels like a 110 out maybe midnight before
below 100 mark
last night we had our highest overnight low for july
wonder if tonight is higher


I know you are in western NY but where in NY are you?
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"Death Ridge"

You know its hot when the 591 thickness line is in NYC.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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