Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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don't be scared be prepared
if any thing is to hit anyone anywhere
i will be here watchin waiting
you will know its coming
cause i will tell you when its coming
i can track these things
right to the front door and more
Rained a fair amount the last couple of weeks, too.
This isn't really important, but I just want to remind some people who may be beginning to think that this 2011 hurricane season could be a real trouble maker, when in fact, the reality is we are below average in terms of true tropical activity.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT WED 20 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-050
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE DORA
NEAR 19.8N 110.0W AT 22/2000Z.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA (EP042011)
2:00 PM PST July 20 2011
======================================
SUBJECT: DORA Becomes The Second Major Hurricane Of The Eastern Pacific Season
At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Dora (968 hPa) located at 15.5N 104.2W or 190 NM southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico has sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 17.7N 107.5W - 125 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
48 HRS: 19.6N 109.9W - 100 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
72 HRS: 21.0N 112.8W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes
That's mainly because we haven't had a long-lived system yet. Even though Alex became a hurricane, I believe he lasted longer than Arlene.
My PC or firefox version?
US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded.
So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012.
La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).
The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes.
Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.
Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.
We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.
With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US
link
here
Link
your PC LOL
Additionally, Cindy may look asymmetrical on the satellite images, but that has more to do with westerly shear (winds in the upper atmosphere blowing stronger from the west over the storm), which is limiting convection on the west side and pushing most convection over to the eastern half, creating an asymmetrical appearance.
I'm assuming you were looking for these types of products
Are you still on the 8 Nightly build for firefox?
nop am on firefox 6 beta 2
CPU: i7 2600k
GPU: GTX 570
RAM: 8gb 1600hz
Bord: Gigabyte z68
PSU: 800w
sweet
what is your window Exerience index? look down too graphice in system or when you 1st shows up
starting too look better
Yeah, but still bad enough for the Canadians.
Yep, thanks! Looks like it's consistently staying below average.
And its at a nice 7.9
Currently:
Bret: Weakening, moving the northeast. Currently has winds of 45 mph, 1005 mbar. Not a threat.
Cindy: New storm. Not a threat. 45 mph and a really high pressure of 1009 mbar. Heading northeast. Also not a threat.
In the Pacific:
Dora: Recently became the latest major hurricane with winds of 115 mph and a minimum pressure of 968 mbar. Potential threats to Mexican coast. Forecast to peak at 145 mph mid-day tomorrow. Has a 9% chance of become a category 5. Likely to become strongest Pacific hurricane this year....
My namesake (Bret) is looking better in terms of convection, but that is typical of heavily sheared cyclones - all of the convection is forced to one side of the centre (yes I'm Canadian).
Cindy is interesting, so far north this early in the season for a storm to develop so quickly; but I bet she will see her demise just as quickly.
And that wave in between South America and the Lesser Antilles has the potential to break the lucky streak for the US - and it seems to actually be moistening the atmosphere around it enough to make things easier for other waves. Because there's been a heckuva lot of dry air in most of the Atlantic. Besides, that wave is pretty enormous, and has a very clear rotation to it.
The next two weeks will be interesting for sure.
holy we crap are you sure its 7.9? i mean you sure you looking at the right one you most show me a srceen shot in my blog
Lol i will, i did not mention my HDD, that is 5.9 but everything is 7.9 other than that!
holy we mother of cows
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