Midwest heat wave generates a heat index of 131° in Iowa; Bret no threat

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

So, Tropical Storm Bret is still hanging on? He's really persistent, and it will be interesting to see what happens with shear beginning to weaken tomorrow. Maybe he'll surprise us, he's impresses us so far. Satellite shows it may be on its decline now.



Invest 99L is unofficially a tropical depression, and has been one since yesterday afternoon. Whether or not it is declared is up to the National Hurricane Center, although they do at least show some interest to it.



Lastly, I'm a bit concerned about this wave in the central Atlantic. It is large and broad right now, but models have been on and off with development, and as Levi said in his video, unless timing is perfect, this could be a threat to the USA, specifically, Florida. Of course, development is no guarantee.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Bret had it's COC fully under it's convection, not half covered like 99L.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Bret had it's COC fully under it's convection, not half covered like 99L.

Quoting Levi32:


No that's my point. There is no "should have tagged." There are no criteria, and thus we can't say that the NHC was wrong in not tagging it an invest. There is no such thing.

Quoting Levi32:


Because at this point is is very unlikely to develop anytime soon. It is far too broad and is interacting with dry air. Once it gets near the Caribbean, west of 60W, it could become more likely to develop under more favorable/moist conditions. At that point, it may get a circle, but we'll have to see. We have a while to watch it evolve before it gets all the way across.

Quoting AussieStorm:

So did the NHC miss the mark on this one, should of tagged it earlier?

Quoting Levi32:


Invests have no criteria. They are subjective taggings for systems that the NHC would like special model data and microwave passes for.

Quoting Neapolitan:

The "Space Race" isn't between countries anymore, and hasn't been for a long time. The shuttle, magnificent as it was, was ill-conceived; no one thought to say anything beyond, "Hey, let's build a truck to carry things into orbit!" The U.S. Government isn't in the truck-building business, and shouldn't be. NASA needs to stick to science--that is, exploration of deep space--and leave the grunt work to competitive companies from around the globe.

The next American into space should be wearing a SpaceX patch, not a NASA one. And the sooner, the better...

Quoting scott39:
Why isnt the NHC giving the AOI in the central Atlantic at least a near 0%? Im confused on thier forecasting of this one!

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Come on Rita you know that is Storm top and I want even bother to send it to you by mail lol I think Ray Charles could see that lol.I know pat knows.On a serious note Rita whats your take on this season?The setup is very similar to last year.Will it stay that way?Well if you look at history, if we do not have a hit by the first week in oct the nothern gulf coast from ala to la rarely gets hit by a hurricane.Juan would be the only fly in the oinment i can remember in the last 40 years.looks like we got 9 weeks to go in our area.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Do you think 99L should of been designate as an invest earlier, as it was developing and not how it is now?

Quoting RitaEvac:


I agree, taxpayers don't need to be footing the bill for NASA anymore

Quoting Levi32:


I agree. Why? Because that kind of a well-defined low-level center can't be formed unless convection was over or at least partially over the center for a portion of its life before getting sheared, which implies it had the "organized convection over the center" checkbox ticked before. Those kinds of systems, if not classified by the time they look like that, generally could have been classified before they looked like that.

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednessday, July 20th, with Video

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednessday, July 20th, with Video

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Now the NHC could at any time decide it is no longer attached to the front......

Quoting cloudburst2011:
hcubed right now all i can say for sure it will be cindy thursday it continues to show organization on all sides.....i can also tell you this it will affect the islands in 72-96 hours...after that we will just have to wait but my guess right now this has the yucatan written all over it and mexico down the line...things could change though i will let you know...

Quoting Neapolitan:
141 million Americans across almost a million square miles are under heat advisories or excessive heat warnings today:

Click for large image

Quoting Neapolitan:

The "Space Race" isn't between countries anymore, and hasn't been for a long time. The shuttle, magnificent as it was, was ill-conceived; no one thought to say anything beyond, "Hey, let's build a truck to carry things into orbit!" The U.S. Government isn't in the truck-building business, and shouldn't be. NASA needs to stick to science--that is, exploration of deep space--and leave the grunt work to competitive companies from around the globe.

The next American into space should be wearing a SpaceX patch, not a NASA one. And the sooner, the better...

Quoting beell:


I agree with you, nrt. That's the way it should work! Should be absorbed into the westerlies/trough before that could happen.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doesn't look too exposed to me, maybe about 50% covered. IMO its nearing classification.


This was Nana in the middle of the Atlantic when it was declared. Completely exposed.


An exposed circulation is not something that should be held against classification.

Quoting SLU:
Well I bet you that if this was closer to the mainland they would have sent an aircraft to check it out already. It looks better defined than Bret was throught its life and I believe there is enough organisation to at least label it a TD if not more.

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Remember that on the Presidential election day, how Obama with the stroke of a pen ended NASA. With asingle stroke of the pen one of the biggest sources of pride and useful technology is over, and noe we ride as back seaters in Russian spacecraft. We handed victory to the Russians when it come to the space race. Sad day.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
You guys do realize that the CATL TW, is not better defined this morning on satellite, and the only main convection is embedded in the ITCZ which means that its not supplying its on convection and energy, so it will make it hard to survive once it seperates from the ITCZ. its our strongest wave yet, but formation appears less likely at this point in time.

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Remember that on the Presidential election day, how Obama with the stroke of a pen ended NASA. With asingle stroke of the pen one of the biggest sources of pride and useful technology is over, and noe we ride as back seaters in Russian spacecraft. We handed victory to the Russians when it come to the space race. Sad day.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well if it has a closed circulation, producing winds and heavy thunderstorms there is really no reason not to classify it at 5 or 11 today. Doesn't look too exposed to me, not like Danny and Nana. Seems to me, looping it the COC is getting drawn back into the new blowup of convection if anything.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:






As long as 99L is shown attached to that front it won't be classified as a Subtropical/Tropical cyclone.

Quoting cloudburst2011:
this wave have banding already coming from the south which you very rarely see and the convection is now surrounding the the whole wave...when it seperates from the ITCZ it will just continue to organize and be shoved to the west by the strong ridge guiding it...this will be cindy and shortly thereafter rapis strengthning will take place little or no shear and ssts in the high 80s....this could go from 90L to cindy very quickly...it has its eyes on the caribbean..

Quoting Patrap:

Quoting AussieStorm:

Don't forget, If it wasn't for us Aussie's, You guys wouldn't of seen it.