Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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1531. kshipre1
2:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
interesting you say that. I mean it is pretty scary. Do you really think Florida could get hit multiple times this year?

The last ENSO season I can recall where Florida got smacked was 2005 and El Nino 2004
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1530. blsealevel
1:58 PM GMT on July 19, 2011


Link
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1529. BahaHurican
1:55 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Morning all. Had to make an early run, but now I'm pretty much in for the day... off from work.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


With the high situated the way it is (long and broad), FL is really going to have to watch it. Could be multiple strikes this year, IMO. Obviously many others would likely also be affected in this pattern.
Agreed. The AB high looks to be setting up to extend right up to the coast or just over it, and that 1016 line has been hovering overhead a lot of late. I just wrote in my blog that I would not be at all surprised of we got at least one hurricane strike in the NW / Central Bahamas this year, and if the pattern sets up the way it can, it certainly can mean 2 or 3 in the same general area [think 2004 or 2008]. The last few years we've been relatively fortunate; Ike and Tomas impacted our less populated southeast islands. I don't think we'll be that lucky if we get hit this year...
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1528. CaneHunter031472
1:54 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


With the high situated the way it is (long and broad), FL is really going to have to watch it. Could be multiple strikes this year, IMO. Obviously many others would likely also be affected in this pattern.


I agree. As I pointed earlier this season this is not a repeat of last year's steering patterns. What concerns me is that some are still arguing that it is, but they fail to notice the strenght of the ridge this year.
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1527. PcolaDan
1:39 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
NEW BLOG
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1526. BahaHurican
1:34 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Morning all. I have to say that this TS Bret has stymied me from the get-go...
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1525. ProgressivePulse
1:23 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting Hurrykane:
ECMWF develops the wave at 35W, and brings it to FL/GA







With the high situated the way it is (long and broad), FL is really going to have to watch it. Could be multiple strikes this year, IMO. Obviously many others would likely also be affected in this pattern.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5202
1524. blsealevel
1:21 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting BDAwx:

Thats me!!! lol its Bermuda


Hey Bermuda;how are you guys doing this morning?
i was just joking around with jason alittel but it didnt seem to work out just yet:)he still might bite though still eairly you know.
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1523. nrtiwlnvragn
1:19 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
OLD BLOG
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1522. Skyepony (Mod)
1:18 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
750mm=29.53 inches
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37800
1521. sunshineandshowers
1:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Ma-On made landfall. Already 750mm of rain recorded up to landfall for some villages: http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110719p2g00m 0dm042000c.html

Crazy rainfall total for at Cat 1 storm, but just goes to show how dangerous any storm can be when it's such a huge size, relatively slow moving and slams into a mountainous area.
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1520. BDAwx
1:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:


Whats that dark dot in the clouds in that pic?

Thats me!!! lol its Bermuda
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1519. blsealevel
1:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

A ufo!!


Did they bring gifts :)
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1518. guygee
1:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
It looks as if Bret is caught under the continental high and has begun to turn WSW, at least at the mid-levels. Whether this shears Bret apart or pushes the surviving storm over the FL peninsula remains to be seen. It seems as though the models currently are not handling the effect on tiny Bret of the changing flow due to the eastern extension of the high to the north.
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1517. ncstorm
1:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15091
1516. WatcherCI
1:09 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:


Whats that dark dot in the clouds in that pic?
I kept trying to wipe off my monitor.
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1515. hurricanehunter27
1:09 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Area 2 could become somthing if the convection does not change for the next 5-6 hours, id give it a 50% of becoming a yellow on the map.
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1514. stormpetrol
1:08 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Nice Ascat of Dora
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1512. Thundercloud01221991
1:04 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Area of interest 1(NE of Bret):


Area of interest 2(N of PR):


Bret:


Area of interest 3(Africa):
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1511. hurricanehunter27
1:03 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:


Whats that dark dot in the clouds in that pic?

A ufo!!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
1510. blsealevel
1:02 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
northeast of Bret!! something else here


Whats that dark dot in the clouds in that pic?
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1509. stormpetrol
1:02 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Wave around 8n/33w is well defined though void of deep convection. Bret looks to have missed his chance to become this season first hurricane.
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1507. blsealevel
12:57 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting barbados246:

I'm from Barbados and coconut water is very refreshing. Drinking it straight from the shell is fine or chilled and you can drink as much as you want, the only thing is you would urinate frequently which is good for the bladder. I've never had store bought coconut water and i don't think i would either.


I'm going to try it, ya'll done sold me on the idea besides i kinda like coconut anyways I just got to buy it at the store i dont have any trees that produce coconuts here that i know of Thanks

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1506. BDAwx
12:56 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
good morning everyone.
Ahhh... the sound of rainwater draining into my tank. :D excellent. I'm kinda jealous of the airport they got 1.75" yesterday I only got 0.52" :( but I've almost got an inch today and its still coming down :)!

Hows everyone today?
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1505. weathermanwannabe
12:56 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
That wave does bear keeping a close eye on in the coming days; there appears to be a very broad rotation going on and the axis does appear to be right around 10N so coreolis effect might not be an issue; persistent convection as noted below is what needs to be watched for and there are no ULL's out in front of it at the moment (see link)

Link
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1504. Cotillion
12:56 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
As of right now, looks like they're keeping Bret at 50mph, 1000mb.
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1503. aislinnpaps
12:55 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Good Morning, everyone.
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1502. European58
12:54 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Cat5, keep them blinders on.
Straight road to oblivion.
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1501. Cotillion
12:53 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting neutralenso:

ok so what does the 0z and 12 z euro show for today


12z isn't out yet, probably within an hour or so.

0z showed nothing new of note.
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1500. Patrap
12:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
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1498. Cotillion
12:48 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting neutralenso:
When does the 0z european come out and if it came out what does it show?


You mean the 12z?

The 0z was out hours ago.
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1495. aspectre
12:39 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
1457 cat5hurricane "So now there are predicting a one meter rise of global ocean levels. What ever happened to 2 meters they've been projecting for the past decade or so?"

Which planet do you live on? Here on Earth, we had been receiving official predictions of "(probably)0.3metres to (very iffy)0.6meters."
Meanwhile the people doing the frontline work have been saying "Well blow me down. Ya know those predictions from a few years ago? We're on track to easily exceed those levels by double."
In other words, they've been as surprised as anyone by the ever increasing melt rate. More so since they had thought they'd already accounted for melting mechanisms, and new ones keep popping up.
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1494. DoubleAction
12:36 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting yonzabam:


Looks less impressive than earlier.


It has battled some shear but will move into a better environment soon which should last about 36 hours. As long as it does not gain too move lattitude it should develop even after that. After 20N it will find shear increasing especially near the north antilles. Gfs keeps it weak and farther south steered by the easterlies which I believe will make it a bigger threat to us late in the period. We actually want this one to strengthen quicker!
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1493. Thundercloud01221991
12:36 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
What is going on just north of PR... almost looks like another Bret forming

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1491. stormwatcherCI
12:34 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting yonzabam:



It's spinning and it's BIG. No shear to contend with, either. Can't see what's to stop it, apart from lack of convection.
Crown Weather

Tropical Wave In The Eastern Atlantic Near 35 West Longitude:
I am keeping very close tabs on a tropical wave that is located near 35 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic this morning. Satellite imagery this morning shows some signs of organization, however, this tropical wave lacks deep convection at this time. Latest indications are that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will head east and may have some influence in causing this tropical wave to organize further as it tracks westward over the coming days.

The latest global model guidance reveals that only the Canadian model forecasts tropical cyclone development from this wave. The European model has backed off on forecasting development and the GFS and NOGAPS models forecast no development from this tropical wave. Given that this tropical wave shows some signs of organization, I will be watching this system closely even though the model guidance says no to development.

As for a track, this tropical wave is forecast to track westward over the next few days and is expected to affect the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands from late Friday through Saturday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
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1490. GeoffreyWPB
12:30 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
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1489. yonzabam
12:29 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crown Weather this morning.



Tropical Wave In The Eastern Atlantic Near 35 West Longitude:
I am keeping very close tabs on a tropical wave that is located near 35 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic this morning. Satellite imagery this morning shows some signs of organization, however, this tropical wave lacks deep convection at this time. Latest indications are that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will head east and may have some influence in causing this tropical wave to organize further as it tracks westward over the coming days. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for development over the coming days and this is a disturbance that should be monitored closely.



It's spinning and it's BIG. No shear to contend with, either. Can't see what's to stop it, apart from lack of convection.
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1488. drg0dOwnCountry
12:29 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting hcubed:


All depends on who you're listening to.

For example, NASA climate researcher James Hansen warned that sea levels could rise by five meters in the next 90 years %u2014 nine times higher than the maximum cited in the last IPCC report. He insists that he has found indications that sea levels in the future could rise by as much as five centimeters per year (current satellite measurements have it at 3 millimeters per year).



Yes. I think what is missing are abrupt changes, which are not included in the study i just quoted here.The IPCC numbers are readjusted, because last report underestimated SLR...
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1487. superpete
12:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Central Atlantic wave looks healthy this morning. Will certainly be a watch item as the week progresses
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1486. drg0dOwnCountry
12:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

No time for that.... See the problem with that?

No.
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1485. Grothar
12:25 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
This shows areas for possible development. Still low right now.



Shear is moderate in the area.




High pressure should steer any systems to the west; at least in the short term.

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1484. stormwatcherCI
12:20 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Crown Weather this morning.



Tropical Wave In The Eastern Atlantic Near 35 West Longitude:
I am keeping very close tabs on a tropical wave that is located near 35 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic this morning. Satellite imagery this morning shows some signs of organization, however, this tropical wave lacks deep convection at this time. Latest indications are that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will head east and may have some influence in causing this tropical wave to organize further as it tracks westward over the coming days. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for development over the coming days and this is a disturbance that should be monitored closely.
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1483. bluheelrtx
12:18 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. I see the Blog margins are out of whack again.......... :)

You just need to add a few poeple to your ignore list.
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1482. yonzabam
12:18 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Did the Maunder Minimum cause the Little Ice Age.?


The Little Ice Age was caused by a period of slightly reduced solar output, deduced from the sunspot record.

The 'Maunder Minimum' was the lowest point, with virtually no sunspots being seen. This was the coldest period.
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1481. nrtiwlnvragn
12:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Quoting WxLogic:


Which it would appear that CMC is being given the benefit of the doubt from what I can see.


Other models have been on/off development in that area. ECMWF Ensemble Mean shows lower pressures in that area in a week.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.