Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Got 2.60 inch's of rain on the 4x4 post i installed my rain gauge in my backyard from 7 PM last night to 7 PM tonight, looked more like around 3 to 4 inch's in the front yard though.

Patrap; i saw New Orleans got hammered to day pumps couldn't keep up.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thanks. That wave looks like it is at least trying to gain some organization. Will need to be watched during the days ahead.
We've been watching it since yesterday morning, basically since pple started talking about future
bret...
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Quoting Torgen:


You're not fooling anyone, you're in East Mobile. :)


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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


At 00Z it looks like Euro developed two TS's in a 10 day period. Looks like it dropped them on the 12Z run though.



In that run the one in the gulf is spawned by a trough. Probably not completely detached yet. The one riding up the east coast is the African wave. In an earlier run or two the Euro put the african wave in the gulf though. I guess we'll just have to watch it.
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Hurricaneswirl, thats apart of a trough, though we need to watch for Mischief from a trough split...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1125. Dakster
Quoting Caffinehog:
There is no "I" in "team."
There is no "eye" in "Bret."


But there is a me in team..
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1124. Torgen
Quoting PcolaDan:


Not all of us are surrounded by water. The first US settlement only has water to the south, and it is in Florida. ;>)


You're not fooling anyone, you're in East Mobile. :)
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Euro put Cindy (likely a hurricane) in the Gulf in 10 days. I think a few other models jumped on it, but I don't think the Euro has it anymore. The wave that spawns this potential system is the huge African wave that just came off around 10N 30W:





Thanks. That wave looks like it is at least trying to gain some organization. Will need to be watched during the days ahead.
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At 00Z it looks like Euro developed two TS's in a 10 day period. Looks like it dropped them on the 12Z run though.
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Thats what the Euro showed this morning anyway
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Yes, Euro in agreement of a TW(currently off of Africa) to form north of PR, and go into the Turks and Caicos then go North up the East coast, though its about 7 days out, CMC, and GFS caught on it this morning.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not checked yet, are any of the models developing any other tropical systems in the near future?


Euro put Cindy (likely a hurricane) in the Gulf in 10 days. I think a few other models jumped on it, but I don't think the Euro has it anymore. The wave that spawns this potential system is the huge African wave that just came off around 10N 30W:



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Not checked yet, are any of the models developing any other tropical systems in the near future?
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Quoting redwagon:


I just keep feeling Bret is going to pull a Jeanne and loop around.


Jeanne had a very unique setup in place for that loop to happen. With Bret it was either the slight chance of it crossing Florida or to lift out when the trough approaches it and move towards to NE. I don't see anything that would make me disagree with the NHC's track.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Agreed, much futher south now than it had appeared to have emerged, and with the BH in place should track through Caribbean if it should develop and be threat to Texas, Mexico or possibly CA!
That is exactly what I said to someone on FB. Yesterday watching it come off I thought it would go north of the Caribbean but I don't think so anymore. It is in about the same place that Ivan became a TD.
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Wow. Bret has been trying really really hard to be a hurricane.... just can't seem to wrap the heaviest thunderstorms up around that eye. I think this one would have bombed out if atmospheric conditions had been even slightly more favorable. Keep in mind the models never saw much of anything with this... mostly one or two closed isobars at most. But this fetched up in some of the cosiest waters in the area, then hung around consolidating itself. Given another 24 hours or a suddenly moister, less sheared environment, this would already be a hurricane.
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Quoting Patrap:


I just keep feeling Bret is going to pull a Jeanne and loop around.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


And hurricanes...


yeah but we don't get those in Tampa Bay anymore :)
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1112. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
close up of AOI east atlantic near 30 w


Something is clearly starting to spin over there.
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1111. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Norway
Rainfall record for July is approaching 30 years old, while the cold record is almost 60 years. But the oldest of all heat records that are over 100 years old.

Link
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1108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
close up of AOI east atlantic near 30 w
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A stationary front is draped across the northern plains. The set-up reminds me of the 1995 heat-wave which triggered several derechos along the stationary front.
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1106. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what if i told ya we could see the rare 200mph+ storm in the atlantic this year would you be scared


That would be beautiful to watch but it better stay away from landmasses. :\
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Hey guys, not been on the blog in about a week, been on vacation. I see we have Tropical Storm Bret, had to follow it per The Weather Channel (didn't have internet), but fortunately, I have internet now. Bret looks like it is almost at its peak, if it isn't already. I still think it will make a run at hurricane strength, but it only has until tomorrow to strengthen.

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Quoting Jedkins01:



Its more than just that, a strong upper ridge and stagnant air causes bottling up near the surface. Sorta like blowing humid air outside into a greenhouse and blowing it up hill inside the greenhouse till it hits a wall then builds up under the roof. The moisture blows in off the gulf up hill into the continent beneath the strong ridge then gets capped below the ridge and pools up ahead of a surface boundary, the air also heats dramatically, causing very high dew points. Of course, it is way more dramatic in these areas than it usually is during the summer. Here in Florida, it rains before the dew point gets that high. Not to mention we don't get ridges that strong.

And people wonder why its so desirable to live here. its better weather not only in the winter in Florida but better weather in the summer than much of the U.S. as long as you don't mind frequent thunderstorms.


When it does finally warm up there, it gets too hot to enjoy, then before you know it its frigid cold again. Being surrounded by water on 3 sides in the subtropics keeps us form getting too hot, or too cold.


Not all of us are surrounded by water. The first US settlement only has water to the south, and it is in Florida. ;>)
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If bret doesnt take advantage of DMAX later tonight, then he will never make it to Hurricane Status
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Jedkins01:



Its more than just that, a strong upper ridge and stagnant air causes bottling up near the surface. Sorta like blowing humid air outside into a greenhouse and blowing it up hill inside the greenhouse till it hits a wall then builds up under the roof. The moisture blows in off the gulf up hill into the continent beneath the strong ridge then gets capped below the ridge and pools up ahead of a surface boundary, the air also heats dramatically, causing very high dew points. Of course, it is way more dramatic in these areas than it usually is during the summer. Here in Florida, it rains before the dew point gets that high. Not to mention we don't get ridges that strong.

And people wonder why its so desirable to live here. its better weather not only in the winter in Florida but better weather in the summer than much of the U.S. as long as you don't mind frequent thunderstorms.<BR>

When it does finally warm up there, it gets too hot to enjoy, then before you know it its frigid cold again. Being surrounded by water on 3 sides in the subtropics keeps us form getting too hot, or too cold.


And hurricanes...
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Actually Elconando, Soon, if NHC's proposal is accepted, it will be 157 Mph.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
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Quoting AllStar17:


Not per recon.
not much appearance on ir pretty feeble
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Its more than just that, a strong upper ridge and stagnant air causes bottling up near the surface. Here in Florida, it rains before the dewpoint gets that high. Not too mention we don't get ridges that strong.

And people wonder why its so desirable to live here. its better weather not only in the winter in Florida but better weather in the summer than much of the U.S. as long as you don't mind frequent thunderstorms.


When it does finally warm up there, it gets too hot to enjoy, then before you know it its frigid cold again. Being surrounded by water on 3 sides in the subtropics keeps us form getting too hot, or too cold.

Dude, Florida is one big swamp! Just a matter if it's full or half full!
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EXPLANATION OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
Contained in this document is a list of abbreviations and acronyms which may appear in Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) discussions.

Link

Loop of all 6-hour PQPFs ≥ 0.01" for Days 1-3

Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what if i told ya we could see the rare 200mph+ storm in the atlantic this year would you be scared


no because we could see one any year... nothing makes the year any worse then last year
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
7.3N/28.88W


Agreed, much futher south now than it had appeared to have emerged, and with the BH in place should track through Caribbean if it should develop and be threat to Texas, Mexico or possibly CA!
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1093. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
what if i told ya we could see the rare 200mph+ storm in the atlantic this year would you be scared
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Quoting HurrikanEB:


I think the most amazing thing about that is the temperature isn't even above 100. So, when people look back in the archives at the date, unless they take they time to look at the dewpoint and calculate, they wont realize the insane heat index. Just a high of 99.
Here in Fargo the DP was 81F in the early afternoon on Sunday, The temp was only in the mid 80s but it felt like 110F. I ran out to take out the garbage and I thought I was going to suffocate.

I could not imagine a heat index of 130.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



YAY 3 cat cat 5 cool


155mph is not cat 5 as Cat 5's have to be 156mph or higher.
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Quoting ElConando:


The Atlantic will be tempted with 3 155mph Hurricanes but none will make the jump to Cat 5.



YAY 3 cat cat 5 cool
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Quoting Tazmanian:
when the next cat 5 hurricane


The Atlantic will be tempted with 3 155mph Hurricanes but none will make the jump to Cat 5.
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Quoting P451:


I wonder if all that spring flooding has contributed.


This might have something to do with it.

click for larger image
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


increased global water vapour levels

kinda like a hot house effect



Its more than just that, a strong upper ridge and stagnant air causes bottling up near the surface. Sorta like blowing humid air outside into a greenhouse and blowing it up hill inside the greenhouse till it hits a wall then builds up under the roof. The moisture blows in off the gulf up hill into the continent beneath the strong ridge then gets capped below the ridge and pools up ahead of a surface boundary, the air also heats dramatically, causing very high dew points. Of course, it is way more dramatic in these areas than it usually is during the summer. Here in Florida, it rains before the dew point gets that high. Not to mention we don't get ridges that strong.

And people wonder why its so desirable to live here. its better weather not only in the winter in Florida but better weather in the summer than much of the U.S. as long as you don't mind frequent thunderstorms.


When it does finally warm up there, it gets too hot to enjoy, then before you know it its frigid cold again. Being surrounded by water on 3 sides in the subtropics keeps us form getting too hot, or too cold.
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1086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04E/H/D/C1
MARK
10.55N/93.63W
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Quoting Tazmanian:
EP, 04, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 109N, 935W, 45, 1000, TS,



hmmm it drop 4mb too 1000mb but olny went up 5kt i think the nhc may go with 60mph wish seens a little more like it
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1083. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
7.3N/28.88W
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EP, 04, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 109N, 935W, 45, 1000, TS,
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Quoting Tazmanian:
when the next cat 5 hurricane
In 2013
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.