Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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*Throws the Troll spray to hunkerdown*
use as much as you need.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting P451:


On that note, here's a little tidbit:



Am i the only one who gets annoyed by media stuff like this (the posted image)? I mean, technically he's correct, but what he's implying is actually dangerous. By leading people to believe that his heatwave is only a fraction of others i can easily see some moron (somewhere, somehow) interpreting that as it being ok to go outside and do whatever.

130 from as a result of dewpoints in the 80s can kill you with in a couple of hours.
A bone dry 100 you can deal with for a few weeks.

Its the difference between sitting by a fire and locking yourself in a steam room- you simply cant breathe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
spray, please, stat
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1178. Patrap







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
Just a learning lurker over here! Have to still google half the things you guys say..sigh!! But learning!! Decided I loved weather at a... Ahem.. Older age...
As per Wilma, I have to say that it was not a "nothing".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Drought has left my brain Mentally scarred, if anyone mentions rain to me, i go into a mental break down, fall on the floor, cry, fart, then lay down and take a nap, then have some orange juice and dont look out the window until the next day and then im okay, until my next conversation...

Sarcasm flag: On? Maybe? I Don't Know... Someone mentioned the "R" Word to me today...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting capelookout:

Good evening. How you doing tonight, Ma'am?
please don't feed the troll
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1173. Patrap
FrankZapper,,

Best work on dem Spatial skills a tad.

Thats Famed Pyscho-Analyst, Sigmund Freud
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
1172. Patrap
Rule of thumb for NOLA inside the Parish, on the East Bank is, the system can Handle a 1" per hour rate, the first Hour, then a Half inch per Hour thereafter.

If the rate goes above half-inch per hour thereafter the first, some areas will retain in low lying streets.

But the last big Rainfall flood was April 95,and May 3, 78.



K flooding came from surge level blowing out outfall Canal Levee's..not any Rain Levels
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: Will tropical storm Bret attain hurricane status before it begins to weaken?

A. Yes
B. Probably/Maybe
C. No

Q: When will we see our next tropical cyclone in the Atlantic?

A. This week
B. Next week
C. First week of August
D. Second week of August



B. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bret become a hurricane.

B. Models are jumping in on this system @ 30W well. A sign of things to come for the season.
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Beat the Heat, Check the Backseat!
One of the biggest weather related risks during the summer months is the possibility of a child dying in a vehicle from heat stroke. The temperature inside a vehicle can rise 20 degrees in as little as 10 minutes, and 50 degrees in an hour- even when outside air temperatures are in the 70's! The inside of a car acts like a greenhouse, where actual temperatures inside the vehicle can reach 120°F in minutes and approach 150°F in as little as an hour! This can cause hyperthermia (heat stroke) in only minutes, particularly in children, whose body temperatures warm at a rate three to five times faster than an adult. Studies have shown that "cracking the windows" provides little (if any) relief.

In the last 13 years, 71 children have died in Texas from heat stroke suffered while in a vehicle (496 children have died nationwide). Nationally, half of these were children that were forgotten by a parent or other caregiver, and nearly 20 percent died when parents knowingly left their child in a vehicle. The rest died playing in an unattended vehicle.

All of these tragic deaths are preventable! To help bring awareness to this issue, the National Weather Service is using the slogan "Beat the Heat, Check the Backseat" to remind people to remember to check for small children in a car seat and to never leave children unattended in a vehicle- even for a few moments. Remember that pets should also never be left in a vehicle during the summer months.

Link
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You do not know how long its been since ive seen poll time(12 days).
Anyway
(B) Maybe
(C) 1st week of August
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
miami has been lucky of recent yrs even andrew spared the town last big one? 26 and 28 had a bad ones
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Quoting spathy:


I thought that Bonnie hit Florida last year.
The devastation was so complete there were no reports of damage able to escape the hard hit areas.
Sarcasm flag on :O)


Haha good one spathy!
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The wave at 10 and 30 degrees sure looks like trouble. Starting to appear to have that huge, "lumbering and rolling" turn to it. If anyone knows what I mean by that. It may fall apart, when and if gains lat. We shall see, and in the very near future.
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Quoting Patrap:
The West Bank had some street flooding as they got 6",but the East Bank and NOLA fared well.

After the second straight day of heavy rain,residents and motorists in Terrytown on the West Bank found it slow going after more than six inches of rain fell between 12:00a.m.-7:00a.m. Monday, July 18,2011.

Both major roads and neighborhood streets were barely passable as standing water reached more than a foot and a half in some areas.





Yea Pat, that was quite a soaking. You think someday they might clean out the storm drains?

BTW Patrap, I like your avatar of General Lee smoking a cigar. Was that portrait done after one of his glorious victories?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yes it is Pat!
Im gonna Have nightmares, No more rain videos! It tortures me from the inside out!
*Curls up in the corner of the Bathroom*
*Has shocked look on face* O.O
*Gets In Fetal Position* *Eye Twitches*
*Rocks back in forth*
its just a video the rain will come soon, its just a video the rain will come, soon *eye twitches again*


I wish I could send you some from south Florida. It's now raining everyday, and we'd be glad to give you some rain.
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When i was in NM, CO. It was mid 70's with monsoonal showers in the PM, so much better than 100 degrees, no rain, and a dewpoint of 14 to 20...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
POLL TIME!

Q: Will tropical storm Bret attain hurricane status before it begins to weaken?

A. Yes
B. Probably/Maybe
C. No

Q: When will we see our next tropical cyclone in the Atlantic?

A. This week
B. Next week
C. First week of August
D. Second week of August

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1158. Patrap
I feel your pain and anguish,,its maddening fer sure
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
@1151:

Nothing? Why don't you tell all of South Florida that? It wasn't nothing, coming from one who experienced Wilma.

And do the math: 10-24-05 to 7-18-11 makes it less than 6 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes it is Pat!
Im gonna Have nightmares, No more rain videos! It tortures me from the inside out!
*Curls up in the corner of the Bathroom*
*Has shocked look on face* O.O
*Gets In Fetal Position* *Eye Twitches*
*Rocks back in forth*
its just a video the rain will come soon, its just a video the rain will come, soon *eye twitches again*
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Yea saw that, a employee i work with lives off of lapalco he got out this morning before his street flooded to impassable levels but things seemed to be draining pretty good by the time he got back to that area.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Tropicalanalysts, i missed you this week(not in a homo way) but in the way that we had no polls, or expertism(you like my new vocabulary?) when other experts( Levi, Dak, Drak, Cybrted, Levi, or Miamihurricane(sorry if i left any out)) were gone.
Although ive only been back from Vacation for 3 days, so i mean, ive missed some stuff too...
Where'd you go? I went to New Mexico/Colorado.


I went to the mountains here in North Carolina. It was nice to get away to some slightly cooler temperatures in the low/mid-80s compared to the low/mid-90s. It did rain quite a bit though
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Quoting caneswatch:
Not gonna quote the troll, but it's been 5 years since Florida's been spared, and it's never gone 6 years that we've been spared. You better be worried every year when your state sticks out like a sore thumb.
I got to agree with you on this one. More like a flake to me however.
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1152. Patrap
Quoting oreodogsghost:
Pat,

No rain again. This is killing us.



Hopefully relief is on the way, albeit not son nuff.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Im serious, i have been saying this All day, does anyone need Troll spray, or a sanity pill? i brought extra... Let me know...


I'll take some troll spray LOL
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i do not like how that high is set up!!


I don't, and lots more don't either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im serious, i have been saying this All day, does anyone need Troll spray, or a sanity pill? i brought extra... Let me know...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
@1140:

Nice try. It was 2005, with Wilma.
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Pat,

No rain again. This is killing us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1139. Patrap
The West Bank had some street flooding as they got 6",but the East Bank and NOLA fared well.

After the second straight day of heavy rain,residents and motorists in Terrytown on the West Bank found it slow going after more than six inches of rain fell between 12:00a.m.-7:00a.m. Monday, July 18,2011.

Both major roads and neighborhood streets were barely passable as standing water reached more than a foot and a half in some areas.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
NOT WORRIED AT ALL HERE IN FLORIDA EVERYTHING ALWAYS MISSES US THE PAST 7 YEARS
Glad to see you have that patch on.
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Yep
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Evening Baha,
I am curious after looking at Figure 1. Satellite image of Bret up in Dr. Master's post and seeing all the cays represented in the Bimini area....
Has Atlantis started to re-emerge or what???
heh heh
There were certainly NOT that many cays the last time I sailed that area.
CRS
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Not gonna quote the troll, but it's been 5 years since Florida's been spared, and it's never gone 6 years that we've been spared. You better be worried every year when your state sticks out like a sore thumb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropicalanalysts, i missed you this week(not in a homo way) but in the way that we had no polls, or expertism(you like my new vocabulary?) when other experts( Levi, Dak, Drak, Cybrted, Levi, or Miamihurricane(sorry if i left any out)) were gone.
Although ive only been back from Vacation for 3 days, so i mean, ive missed some stuff too...
Where'd you go? I went to New Mexico/Colorado.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Hurricaneswirl, thats apart of a trough, though we need to watch for Mischief from a trough split...


Yeah I know. That's not the run I was talking about in which the African wave entered the gulf. The Euro dropped that situation.

Actually, the most recent run drops everything:


But it will likely show something again in the future.
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Got 2.60 inch's of rain on the 4x4 post i installed my rain gauge in my backyard from 7 PM last night to 7 PM tonight, looked more like around 3 to 4 inch's in the front yard though.

Patrap; i saw New Orleans got hammered to day pumps couldn't keep up.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.