Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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1230. BDAwx
@1218's video

He kinda made it seem like the plates aren't always moving, and that the ring of fire doesn't always have seismic activity. Also, how would a tsunami generated in off the northeast coast of Puerto Rico (in the Atlantic, to be clear) get into the Gulf of Mexico in a state that would be threatening to life and property?

Not trying to discredit him because he may be onto something very concerning - fore-shocks to a potentially large earthquake along a fault line related to the Haiti earthquake. Not to mention you have to expect anything these days with all that has happened already this year.
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Quoting AllStar17:


That appears to be poised to become the next threat for development.

It needs to gain some latitude, but it could definitely be an area of interest to watch down the road.
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Wow, dont know what else to say about that
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1225. Skyepony (Mod)
Yesterday this time Bret started drawing energy from the blowup of convection over SFL. Today the only evening boost it gets is a little land sea interaction in the Bahamas.


Looking at MIMIC the islands seemed to hamper it a bit. Really deepened clear of those.
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1224. robj144
Quoting superpete:
Did I see someone mention WILMA was nothing? Those that reside in Dade/Broward county FL would beg to differ, also those in Cancun/Cozumel.


Don't forget Palm Beach county. I think it was the only county where the eye passed over every city/town in the county.
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Bret down to 60 mph. Good call. Would be embarrassing to lower it too much only to have it come right back again in the morning.
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1222. Skyepony (Mod)
Bret on MIMIC.
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1221. robj144
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
WILMA WAS NOTHING AND THAT WOULD MAKE IT 6 YEARS BUT EVERY YEAR THEY SAY ITS GONNA HIT US AND THEY CHANGE THE TRACK LIKE 40 TIMES ON EVERY STORM OVER A 3 DAY PERIOD AND NOTHING COMES


Wilma was most definitely not "nothing". Next you'll say Andrew was nothing too.
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Quoting superpete:
Did I see someone mention WILMA was nothing? Those that reside in Dade/Broward county FL would beg to differ, also those in Cancun/Cozumel.


Pretty much from Lake O south got the worst of it.
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Uhhh Bret....Is everything okay there? You look a little sick...

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I just saw this video and I'm worried.

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Quoting TorrentialOblitarion:
Sigh, I wonder how much longer until this boring phase in the tropics ceases already, =(.


No offense JFV, and I know I ought not to quote you, but it will be whenever you stop making new alts and just lurk and watch, okay? Lordy kid.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
Linkspin at 31 west!!


That appears to be poised to become the next threat for development.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


So true! Crystal Light also puts out a straw of flavored powder called 'rehydration'. I use it for my daughter after sports and have it put up for if we get hit by a hurricane.


Good stuff right their, my daughter used the same product when she was in sports also
I kinda like the tea w/lemeon myself just mix it with some bottled water and your good to go.
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Quoting CaneAddict:
I would expect the NHC next advisory weakens TS Bret quite a bit...Looks terrible.


As we've learned many times in the past, storms like Bret often change like this - only to bounce back in the AM.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting caneswatch:


B. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bret become a hurricane.

B. Models are jumping in on this system @ 30W well. A sign of things to come for the season.


Uh...definitely out of the question. Bret is doing exactly the opposite from what storms usually do to attain Hurricane Status..lol.
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I would expect the NHC next advisory weakens TS Bret quite a bit...Looks terrible.
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Quoting blsealevel:
The Heat wave with those heat index numbers will hurt you bad if you don't know how to handle it, got to wear light clothing and stay in shade or inside with air as much as possible drink plenty water, Water not power aid are things of that kind and no are very little soda pops and as much as this hurts limit alcohol consumption and dont forget your older neghbors.

Thanks
blsealevel


So true! Crystal Light also puts out a straw of flavored powder called 'rehydration'. I use it for my daughter after sports and have it put up for if we get hit by a hurricane.
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Did I see someone mention WILMA was nothing? Those that reside in Dade/Broward county FL would beg to differ, also those in Cancun/Cozumel.
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1207. 7544
wow bret got killed out there shredding away

on to the new spin around 30 w is looking good for now
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
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1205. beell
Climate Shifts Are Changing New Weather 'Normals' / nytimes, Jan 7 2011


...The "new normals" will update the averages for temperatures, rainfall and snow. A climate normal bases itself on the weather patterns of a particular region over a 30-year period. Every decade, in accordance with international agreements, the National Climate Data Center releases new temperature and rain and snowfall normals for 10,000 regions across the country...

...The current normals rely on weather patterns that occurred between 1971 and 2000. The new normals, which will be released later in the year, will drop the 1970s -- a decade marked by cool temperatures -- and add the hottest recorded decade in history, the 2000s...

... The new normals are set to be released in phases, with the first set for June and the second by the year's end...
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Evening Baha,
I am curious after looking at Figure 1. Satellite image of Bret up in Dr. Master's post and seeing all the cays represented in the Bimini area....
Has Atlantis started to re-emerge or what???
heh heh
There were certainly NOT that many cays the last time I sailed that area.
CRS
Hey, CRS.... I have to admit I flew directly over Bimini on the way out to FLL in ... Feb??? and I didn't see them either.... lol.... I recall N and S Bimini, then the deep blue of the Gulf Stream.... not sure who is "annotating" the Blue Marble maps... lol
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The Heat wave with those heat index numbers will hurt you bad if you don't know how to handle it, got to wear light clothing and stay in shade or inside with air as much as possible drink plenty water, Water not power aid are things of that kind and no are very little soda pops and as much as this hurts limit alcohol consumption and dont forget your older neghbors.

Thanks
blsealevel
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Bret is looking Sickly, anyone got some pepto, or tylenhol, or ibuprophen? i think hes gonna die...
Should we put him on life support or call 911?
Or should we upset him(make him want to come back and huant us as Cindy), and watch him suffocate on Dry air and die?

I like the watch him suffocate and die...
Anyone else care to comment?
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1199. DDR
10 days without measurable rainfall in parts of Trinidad especially western areas in the heart of the wet season,seems the weather has gone nuts just about everywhere,this time last year everyday it rained 1 inch.
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Not meaning to be a know it all....but don't forget Wilma in 2005 (after Katrina)....that was the last and most devastating to Florida. They have had a few "tropical cyclones" since (Fay), but nothing like that....

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
2005 was the last year. Katrina made landfall in Fla. as a Cat 1.
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1197. palmpt
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
2004 WAS THE LAST TIME FOR FLORIDA THATS ACTUALLY 7 YEARS ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SAID ABOUT 60 TIMES THAT WE ARE GETTING A STORM AND THEY ALL HAVE NEVER COME I THINK ITS A PLOT TO EVERY YEAR TO SPEND MONEY AT HOME DEPOT LOL
Stop the caps.
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1196. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
28.35N/76.95W
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Quoting TorrentialOblitarion:



Hopefully by August 11th cause that's my B-Day, ^_^.
at least you know on your birthday game on for cv season
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1194. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
7.3N/28.88W
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1193. BDAwx
Meanwhile, over in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Ma-on is going to be making landfall in Southern Japan soon. JMA estimates 85mph 960mb with gusts to 120mph. Link

I would assume a storm surge would be building in the bay on the south side of Shikoku:
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1192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04E/H/D/C1
MARK
10.55N/93.63W
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1191. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1189. skook
Tropicana Field, in St Pete was just hit by lightning. I guess its a good thing its a dome, not a out door stadium.





edit- It struck nearby, facebook sometimes will lie...
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Quoting TorrentialOblitarion:




hi JFV you been reported
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Quoting Patrap:
FrankZapper,,

Best work on dem Spatial skills a tad.

Thats Famed Pyscho-Analyst, Sigmund Freud
Thanks Pat. I didn't recognize that discredited shrink. Nonetheless impressive. Still looks like Lee after a shave.
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Quoting NEVERKNOW:
2004 WAS THE LAST TIME FOR FLORIDA THATS ACTUALLY 7 YEARS ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SAID ABOUT 60 TIMES THAT WE ARE GETTING A STORM AND THEY ALL HAVE NEVER COME I THINK ITS A PLOT TO EVERY YEAR TO SPEND MONEY AT HOME DEPOT LOL
2005 was the last year. Katrina made landfall in Fla. as a Cat 1.
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Link
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*Throws the Troll spray to hunkerdown*
use as much as you need.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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