Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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I agree, look at that low at 7N
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1280. sky1989
Quoting sunlinepr:


Yeah, soon we will move our posts to the CV region; and it seems it's going to be for most of the season...


I agree. This year looks like it may be a lot like last year in that we may have a lot of Cape Verde action. However, I am afraid that unlike last year, storms will likely travel further west before recurving. The analogs to this year look rather scary.
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Quoting sky1989:


Those waves are becoming more and more vigorous! It will not be too much longer...


Yeah, soon we will move our posts to the CV region; and it seems it's going to be for most of the season...
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Well its been a long day Later Gators
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Quoting robj144:


Don't forget Palm Beach county. I think it was the only county where the eye passed over every city/town in the county.
It wasn't that hard for Wilma to do at that point; the eye must have been 60 miles in diameter as it came off the FL coast. That's how Grand Bahama got hit; pple were looking at the point where the eye was centred and not realizing the size of the eye put the strongest winds much closer to the island than would otherwise be expected...
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1275. sky1989
Quoting sunlinepr:


Those waves are becoming more and more vigorous! It will not be too much longer...
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Anyone know when was the earliest in season Hurricane to hit U.S.? I was thinking Charlie at Aug 13 but not sure where to look this up.
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1273. jonelu
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
watch that tropical wave at 30 west!!


Looking pretty imposing
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Quoting Skyepony:
Slumming the news..a thunderstorm knocked eastern Ontario off the grid. Flooding in Isthmus of Tehuantepec has killed 3 & displaced 180,000. Flooding in Brazil killed 6, several were mudslide victims. Major supply routes were disrupted by slides. Oil spill in a bay in Alaska. That spill in China has grown alarmingly large & now there has been a huge fish kill.


Is their any good news out their any more?
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Puerto Rico's NE trench - it's being shaking for days, sometimes more than 70 small quakes a day....

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1269. Skyepony (Mod)
Slumming the news..a thunderstorm knocked eastern Ontario off the grid. Flooding in Isthmus of Tehuantepec has killed 3 & displaced 180,000. Flooding in Brazil killed 6, several were mudslide victims. Major supply routes were disrupted by slides. Oil spill in a bay in Alaska. That spill in China has grown alarmingly large & now there has been a huge fish kill.
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Quoting caneswatch:


The very center of Wilma passed over us in Central PBC. The stuff on the road was unbelievable. As for me, it was the worst hurricane i've been in so far.


I lived in a third floor apartment in WPB at the time. Tried to go out during the eye and realized my dead bolt had bent and I was locked in. The brain child that I was at the time started to take the lock apart to get the door open. As I was pulling out the screws I thought to myself, ummm, Wilma moving 25mph and backside is coming fast. Needless to say the screws went back in quickly. Good thing because just as I tightened the last screw all hell broke loose again. Moral of the story, don't attempt to go outside during the eye.
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Quoting Mucinex:
Another good thing to drink in the heat is Coconut Water. Many generations of my family, who worked outside all day in Florida way before there was A/C and many islanders swear by it. It's full of electrolytes and potassium (more than the Power/Gator stuff) which you lose when your doing a heavy sweat. Now a days, you can even buy it at the grocery. But only do one serving a day or you'll get the runs.


Sometimes the elders know what will work out of necessity, I never drank just straight coconut water before but i can see you would not want to over do it.
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1265. 7544
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
watch that tropical wave at 30 west!!


when u think we can see 99l ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
Quoting Mucinex:
Another good thing to drink in the heat is Coconut Water. Many generations of my family, who worked outside all day in Florida way before there was A/C and many islanders swear by it. It's full of electrolytes and potassium (more than the Power/Gator stuff) which you lose when your doing a heavy sweat. Now a days, you can even buy it at the grocery. But only do one serving a day or you'll get the runs.
I agree. I always drink coconut water after a good run along the bayou. More potassium in a little 11oz container than in a banana. Really helps with any post-run cramps. Really quenches the thirst too.
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This is not how you get to Hurricane status. Notice far lower left, Dora, THAT'S how you get to Hurricane status. Zero to almost "Ghetto Fabulous" in short order, now just a one hit wonder searching for a gig.



This doesn't help either, again compare Dora.

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1262. nigel20
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
watch that tropical wave at 30 west!!
If it sustains itself it may become the next named storm
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Quoting superpete:

Caneswatch-I was in Miami just 10 days after Wilma blew thru & recall tall buildings missing windows. Friends that were there said it was pretty wild during that day/evening


The very center of Wilma passed over us in Central PBC. The stuff on the road was unbelievable. As for me, it was the worst hurricane i've been in so far.
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Link

This is the seismic link

http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
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1257. sky1989
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Uhhh Bret....Is everything okay there? You look a little sick...



I think it is important to note that Bret likely never had an eye. As the National Hurricane Center stated in their forecast discussion Bret had an interesting "eye-like feature". It's possible that Bret was on its way to forming an eyewall, but I do not think it actually had one completed.

Bret does appear to be weakening right now as convection is dwindling, but I do not believe it is dead yet. Outflow, to me, looks very impressive on the eastern side of the system, and this means the storm is breathing and may be able to fire up and sustain new convection over night. Regardless, dry air on the western side will keep intensification, if any more does occur, from being too substantial.
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1256. skook
@
Quoting Skyepony:
Yesterday this time Bret started drawing energy from the blowup of convection over SFL. Today the only evening boost it gets is a little land sea interaction in the Bahamas.


Looking at MIMIC the islands seemed to hamper it a bit. Really deepened clear of those.



i noticed the same thing last night, around 10 pm all the energy got sucked right into bret from Florida, it was pretty neat to see.
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Twincomanche, lol, sorry, just weird how my forecast of going out on a limb and forecasting that paid off.
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Dora is wrapping up, and shifting to more of a hurricane structure, so should see 75 to 80 mph cat. 1 at 5 am. anyway Gnite all, ill leave some extra troll spray next to the crow if anyone needs it.
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HA!!!! i just realised i nailed my forecast for Bret!!! awesome, lol jason said i was way off, about 40% for hurricane. Bret took a good swing for hurricane status, and the NHC gave it 34% for hurricane. and said 65 to 70 mph TS... wow... did well.
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1251. nigel20
Look at that tropical wave at 30 west.
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1250. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting caneswatch:


Pretty much from Lake O south got the worst of it.

Caneswatch-I was in Miami just 10 days after Wilma blew thru & recall tall buildings missing windows. Friends that were there said it was pretty wild during that day/evening
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Well thats good enough for me.. good nite everyone...

Bret dead, or soon to be.
Dora the next EPAC Contender,
and 99L likely up to bat and take a swing at Cindy(LOL, see what i did there)
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1245. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
TorrentialOblitarion ignored for corrupt posts

soon to be replaced with empty space
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1244. Mucinex
Another good thing to drink in the heat is Coconut Water. Many generations of my family, who worked outside all day in Florida way before there was A/C and many islanders swear by it. It's full of electrolytes and potassium (more than the Power/Gator stuff) which you lose when your doing a heavy sweat. Now a days, you can even buy it at the grocery. But only do one serving a day or you'll get the runs.
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1242. 7544
looks like 99l up next and on the way wave at 30 w ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
R.I.P. BRET,

In loving memory of the storm with an eye, but never became a hurricane, Bret we will miss you for a few more hours...





Then CINDY TIME.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:


Ya no vivo en Puerto Rico pero tengo familia y amigos en la Isla.


Let um know when the water goes away from the shore to run to the hills that is if they will have time
Wish them luck though

Thanks
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Well Everyone, are we ready to let Bret off of Life support?
Yes?
Okay.
*Unplugs*
*sheds Fake tear*
alright moving on...

*Bret's Spirit watches in anger* *Revenge Time*
*Bret's Spirit jumps into Tropical Wave at 30W 10N*
HERES CINDY! *Eye Twitches*
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1238. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA (EP042011)
8:00 PM PST July 18 2011
======================================

SUBJECT: DORA Continues To Strengthen Well South Of Mexico

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dora (997 hPa) located at 11.1N 94.1W or 315 NM south southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 12.5N 98.9W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.9N 103.8W - 105 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
72 HRS: 17.3N 107.5W - 105 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
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Quoting TorrentialOblitarion:


Ya no vivo en Puerto Rico pero tengo familia y amigos en la Isla.
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Quoting P451:
Well, Bret is taking a beating late this evening. It was a pretty good system.

9 Hours, WV Imagery...






bret is one of the shortest lived TS that developed in that area in a while?
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We have to remember guys, Bret has DMAX to go through in the morning, which may help it strengthen some more. This system won't reach hurricane status though.
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Since i was born. tropics on my BDAY
1998: Hurricane Bonnie Landfall on NC as Cat. 3
Hurricane Danielle became a category 2.

1999: Cindy became a hurricane, and was heading out to sea.
Dennis became a hurricane, and closed in on the carolinas.
Emily was a TS and was paralleling the windward islands.

2000: Nothing happened on my BDAY(PEACE)

2001: Dean became a Tropical Storm once again as it heads out to sea.

2002: Nothing happened on my BDAY(PEACE)

2003: Nothing Happened on my BDAY(Fabian formed on Aug 27th)

2004: This was weird August was the activest month of the season here but nothing...

2005: Katrina enters the gulf and becomes a category 2.

2006: Tropical Depression Debby weakens as it stays out at sea
Tropical Storm Ernesto Aproaches Hispanoila

2007: This is weird as well, there is 3 storms, 2 a week before my BDAY(Dean, Erin), and 1 a week after.(Felix)

2008: Remember this year for two reasons(1. cause my grandpa died. 2. cuase i was visiting my grandpa for 3 weeks and that was on my BDAY, and Gustav, hanna, and Ike had all the attention.) Ike roared ashore the day my grandpa died.
Anyway, Gustav was a cat.1 heading for Hispanoila

2009: Danny Formed.

2010: Danielle was a cat.2 on the verge of a cat.3 heading out to sea
Earl had just formed and was a somewhat disorganized TS but he definetley got his act together.

2011: Who knows.... *Jaws Theme Music Plays*
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.