Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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1331. JRRP
see you tomorrow
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Quoting KoritheMan:
No idea how many of you are still up, but I just did a blog entry on Bret and Dora. Take a look.


Watup Kori

Thanks for the Blog Update!!
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GoodNite everyone..........need some shut eye before cranking the Boat up.......Have a great couple of days!
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1327. wn1995
Quoting AllStar17:


If you are talking about 30W then that certainly seems possible.


Yeah it does seem possible, but it would be a good ways down the road.
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Quoting winter123:


As Bret is weakening currently, do you think that High could edge just far enough east to prevent Bret from going out to sea? It sure looks like it to my untrained eye.




Too big of opening for Bret to get stuck it appears!

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Quoting yonzabam:
The mid Atlantic wave is huge, spinning and has lots of moisture. What don't the models like?


Good question! Not really sure why they are not picking it up.......there is Dry air in its Northern part and Shear is not really bad.

Although this model is certainly picking it up!



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Quoting TampaSpin:



That is one big HIGH spinning in the Central US!!!!


As Bret is weakening currently, do you think that High could edge just far enough east to prevent Bret from going out to sea? It sure looks like it to my untrained eye.
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Quoting sunlinepr:

Is the big blue thing with the white center a storm? Ya'll dont laugh at me...just asking and trying to get more knowledge on how to interpret models.TIA
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1322. emguy
I dislike "Mrs. 30 West" on the shortwave as far as the heebee-jeebee vibes...On the shortwave, that wave is tapping into a very broad and expansive envelope. It takes quite a while for these to develop, but when they pull in, they are usuaully the larger variety of strong cyclones and this envelope would favor eventual development in a few days. I also don't like the combination of this and the very low lattitude...this will also slow development quite a bit. What I'm saying is I think it will eventually develop later on, and that's not good because storms that take time to develop and are weaker on approach to the Antilles, such as tropical storms or less have a much higher chance of a dance with the US. This is one to watch down the road. Atlantic Wide Shortwave
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The mid Atlantic wave is huge, spinning and has lots of moisture. What don't the models like?
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Quoting AllStar17:


The models didn't really like Bret, either.


SAL has been playing an important role in CV wave inhibition, but seems like that big wave has blocked it and;... we will see...

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That is one big HIGH spinning in the Central US!!!!
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As long a the GOM is very smooth for the next 2 days! I am about to head out in the GOM tomorrow at 5am for the next couple of days of fishing. Please no storms as the forecast looks very smooth tomorrow and a little more wind and a few more Thunderstorms for Wednesday.
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Quoting AllStar17:


If you are talking about 30W then that certainly seems possible.


Yep, although the models are not picking up on any development but do hint of a spin.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Wave at 30W looking nice, with a nice vort and spin but the models don't like it, it pretty much disappears on the 00z GFS run.


The models didn't really like Bret, either.
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1315. EtexJC
Quoting BDAwx:
@1218's video

He kinda made it seem like the plates aren't always moving, and that the ring of fire doesn't always have seismic activity. Also, how would a tsunami generated in off the northeast coast of Puerto Rico (in the Atlantic, to be clear) get into the Gulf of Mexico in a state that would be threatening to life and property?

Not trying to discredit him because he may be onto something very concerning - fore-shocks to a potentially large earthquake along a fault line related to the Haiti earthquake. Not to mention you have to expect anything these days with all that has happened already this year.


OMG, the earth is moving within, when did this happen?!?!? Oh wait that's right 10's of millions of years ago... Let's get Fox News and MSNBC to do a joint coverage on this now occurring Apocalypse!!!!
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1314. JLPR2
Wave at 30W looking nice, with a nice vort and spin but the models don't like it, it pretty much disappears on the 00z GFS run.

Also apparently we wont have to wait 384hrs to see a CV storm since the GFS now has a strong low/wave coming off at 204hrs.

*Still very long range so take with a grain of salt.

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Quoting Hurrykane:
IR2 East ATL
Link


I bet that gets a mention soon.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Dam strong wave coming toward the Central Atlantic.........thata be our next storm folks!!!


If you are talking about 30W then that certainly seems possible.
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Dam strong wave coming toward the Central Atlantic.........thata be our next storm folks!!!
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Blog is dead.
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Quoting JRRP:


If that continues, we aint seeing El Nino for a long time.
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1306. Skyepony (Mod)
Animated TRMM pass on Bret.

MA-ON


While i'm looking at TRMM data..ESPI has shot up to -0.05.
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1305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
02L/XX/B

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1303. JRRP
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1302. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
7.3N/28.88W
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1301. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04E/H/D/C1
MARK
10.55N/93.63W
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1300. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
02L/TS/B/X
MARK
28.35N/76.95W
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I just saw this video and I'm worried.....


Saw that video and downloaded a free version of Earthquake 3D.... available Free in their site... I tried and looks Excellent!

Link
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1298. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #60
TYPHOON MA-ON (T1106)
12:00 PM JST July 19 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ma-On (960 hPa) located at 32.2N 132.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center in east quadrant
60 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in east quadrant
220 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 33.8N 135.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 32.9N 139.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 31.3N 144.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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@typhoonfury
James Reynolds
This station in mountains of Shikoku recorded over 430mm (~17") of rain in last 12hrs - http://bit.ly/onNqHH #typhoon #maon
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@typhoonfury
James Reynolds
Large areas of mountainous S Japan getting deluge of rain from #typhoon #maon, flooding a real risk - Taisho, Shikoku 280mm in last 12hrs
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1295. sky1989
Quoting sunlinepr:


I agree, look at that low at 7N


Very interesting. It appears that there is already some cyclonic turning taking place there too. If convection persists I would not be surprised to see the NHC tag this an invest or at least give it some chance for development possibly as soon as by the end of day tomorrow.
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Maybe it's just me, but looking at satellite loops recently, it doesn't look like Bret is moving a whole lot.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, I haven't given up on BRET yet.... still think we r going 2 see 1 more round of strengthening before it's all over...


Agreed. One more show tonight I'm thinking.
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Quoting 7544:


when u think we can see 99l ?


99L will likely be tagged within the next 72 hours..some very vigorious tropical waves coming off Africa as of late. I do agree this shall be an active cape verde season.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


The earliest hurricane to strike the United States since 1900 was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.




I bet Tampa folk we "S'ing A Royal Brick"
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I lived in a third floor apartment in WPB at the time. Tried to go out during the eye and realized my dead bolt had bent and I was locked in. The brain child that I was at the time started to take the lock apart to get the door open. As I was pulling out the screws I thought to myself, ummm, Wilma moving 25mph and backside is coming fast. Needless to say the screws went back in quickly. Good thing because just as I tightened the last screw all hell broke loose again. Moral of the story, don't attempt to go outside during the eye.


I actually didn't listen to the moral when the eye was over us LOL. I was living in The Acreage at the time and I went outside about 2 minutes after the winds died down. I kept my head turning and making sure a powerline wasn't down or a nice tree limb wasn't gonna come crashing down. There was some considerable damage, but the worst damage came from the back side of the storm.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
If the area at 30W persists into tomorrow I'd bet the NHC will mention it.
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1287. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon is headed back to Bret, over the FL Panhandle 30.800N 85.633W.
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have a good night everyone, interesting week ahead..
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BTW, I haven't given up on BRET yet.... still think we r going 2 see 1 more round of strengthening before it's all over...
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Quoting TropicTraveler:
Anyone know when was the earliest in season Hurricane to hit U.S.? I was thinking Charlie at Aug 13 but not sure where to look this up.


The earliest hurricane to strike the United States since 1900 was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.

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1283. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting blsealevel:


Is their any good news out their any more?


Not much in weather..but there is a few highlights. High-latitude sky watchers can look for auroras tonight. No one was hurt today when Phoenix had another big haboob. & I got .15" of rain.
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Quoting TropicTraveler:
Anyone know when was the earliest in season Hurricane to hit U.S.? I was thinking Charlie at Aug 13 but not sure where to look this up.
I'd just google it. NHC has a pretty good set of FAQs of this sort of thing set up, but google will take u to the exact qtn faster.
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I agree, look at that low at 7N
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.