Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


The entire debt thing is scary but SS is covered or should be. It's a scare tactic he is using...but there is no telling what they may choose to fund or not fund. Try not to stress about it.

I may lose some financial aid for my nursing program...but I would rather the issues get resolved.


I too think it's a scare tactic, but you never know.

But hey, I've had all kinds of stuff happen to me, to the point where I'm not nearly as worried as I could be. Life goes on despite my problems, despite all of our problems.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Everyone...guys included wears a red dress (I do a toga) and we run from bar to bar.....at least that's how it starts and I don't remember much else.....but the pix says we always have fun and raised 200k for charity last year.


That sounds so fun! Wish I could participate too but my nursing program starts back Aug. 9th. I need to have a clear/sober head, lol!
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Kori we will b in NOLA from 11th-14th will let you know more the closer it gets. Maybe we can work it out!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


August might be a bad month for me, actually. I still live with my family despite being 20. The problem? Our only sense of financial security comes from social security checks each month. And according to Obama, if the debt ceiling is not raised soon, he will not be able to afford to send out social security checks next month.

What that means for me is, I lose the place I'm living in. My dad would allow me to move in with him (I live with some of my relatives, long story), but his landlord would likely evict him if he found out we were living there for free.

I'm still not quite sure what I'm going to do yet. If his landlord allows us to live with him for just one month, we'll probably be able to get back on our feet.

But yeah, just thought I'd share that. I'd love to hang out with you guys, but August could be a really bad month for me.


The entire debt thing is scary but SS is covered or should be. It's a scare tactic he is using...but there is no telling what they may choose to fund or not fund. Try not to stress about it.

I may lose some financial aid for my nursing program...but I would rather the issues get resolved.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
What is Red Dress Run?


Everyone...guys included wears a red dress (I do a toga) and we run from bar to bar.....at least that's how it starts and I don't remember much else.....but the pix says we always have fun and raised 200k for charity last year.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Me too, lol! Towels all over the back room, well those that aren't chewed up!
lol
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Bret could become a remnant low today if anything if it looks like this throughout the day. Dry air punched it real bad. Expect 50 mph next advisory.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23882
Quoting traumaboyy:


You could always evacuate to Florida....I am going to NOLA if I have to evac here.....Hey...we are headed out that way for the Red Dress Run in August if you want to hang out with our crew!!


August might be a bad month for me, actually. I still live with my family despite being 20. The problem? Our only sense of financial security comes from social security checks each month. And according to Obama, if the debt ceiling is not raised soon, he will not be able to afford to send out social security checks next month.

What that means for me is, I lose the place I'm living in. My dad would allow me to move in with him (I live with some of my relatives, long story), but his landlord would likely evict him if he found out we were living there for free.

I'm still not quite sure what I'm going to do yet. If his landlord allows us to live with him for just one month, we'll probably be able to get back on our feet.

But yeah, just thought I'd share that. I'd love to hang out with you guys, but August could be a really bad month for me.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Old run, new run is up to 168hrs.


I'm tired and confused, so it looked new to me. lol.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23882
Quoting bigwes6844:
lol who u telling. gotta lay a clean towel down for mine


Me too, lol! Towels all over the back room, well those that aren't chewed up!
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What is Red Dress Run?
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


It's been bad here for about two weeks or so, with afternoon/evening storms. Had been able to go without mowing the lawn, but not now!

Try letting German shepherds outside to play or do "business" and they come in covered in mud, lol!
lol who u telling. gotta lay a clean towel down for mine
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No, I said I wanted one. I'm going to haul ass to my cousins' house in the event we get one this year, as they do have one.


You could always evacuate to Florida....I am going to NOLA if I have to evac here.....Hey...we are headed out that way for the Red Dress Run in August if you want to hang out with our crew!!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Who u telling it was horrible this morning! Flooding was everywhere and cars were going under out here. It was really bad today.


It's been bad here for about two weeks or so, with afternoon/evening storms. Had been able to go without mowing the lawn, but not now!

Try letting German shepherds outside to play or do "business" and they come in covered in mud, lol!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Stop it! lol
lol
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Well, I would love the cooler air! I hibernate in the summer, lol.
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That wave in the central atlantic has a nice shape and spin to it. It will be interesting to see if the convection increases once it gets more W.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Kori, didn't you say you finally got a generator after Gustav? I never did!


No, I said I wanted one. I'm going to haul ass to my cousins' house in the event we get one this year, as they do have one.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Eeeek Bigwes...we don't need another storm. I am in Baton Rouge and the rain we've been having lately is enough for me, lol!
Who u telling it was horrible this morning! Flooding was everywhere and cars were going under out here. It was really bad today.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
uh oh!!!! i smell trouble


Stop it! lol
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Quoting JLPR2:
One heck of a change in just one day.

Not only it doesn't develop the wave, check out the position of the high.

Yesterday's run:


New run:


Yuck. That trough looks unseasonably potent on the second run, possibly enough to bring in cold (relatively speaking) air. I honestly hope not, because I am not ready for winter just yet. It's only July. :(
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Kori, didn't you say you finally got a generator after Gustav? I never did!
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Quoting JLPR2:
One heck of a change in just one day.

Not only it doesn't develop the wave, check out the position of the high.

Yesterday's run:


New run:
uh oh!!!! i smell trouble
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Eeeek Bigwes...we don't need another storm. I am in Baton Rouge and the rain we've been having lately is enough for me, lol!


I'm in Prairieville myself. At least if we get hit again, we'll know that we're in it together. :P :P
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1357. JLPR2
One heck of a change in just one day.

Not only it doesn't develop the wave, check out the position of the high.

Yesterday's run:


New run:
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Thanks Kori. I do remember the cool looking troughs (or were they called something else, ull?) flowing. I just don't remember being able to see a ridge. I will look at that link.
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Eeeek Bigwes...we don't need another storm. I am in Baton Rouge and the rain we've been having lately is enough for me, lol!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
So where do you guys see this ridge regarding the Gulf? I have forgotten where to find these things or how to look at them.


Try this. Also, use water vapor imagery, as that is very good for depicting the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere in real time.

Remember, a ridge is denoted by an area of clockwise flow, while troughs are the opposite.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well the ridge isn't that far north or east at the moment, but more than it has been, which is what I find so significant. As we head into peak season, we should see this ridge retreat north or eastward. This is typical of ENSO neutral years.

As for landfalls, I obviously can't predict that. I do think we will see at least one hurricane hit the Gulf Coast this year, most likely the western or northern Gulf Coast. But I also feel the east coast needs to watch out as well.
Kori Thanks man! I stay in new orleans. It just scares me that you mention about the ridge that will be very dangerous and bring storms toward the Coast. This is the katrina like year too as this is a neutral year and the storms names are being reused. I just hope and pray that no one will get hit but it seems to be not that way in the beginning of AUGUST. I will be ready just like 05 and 08. thnaks again Kori
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So where do you guys see this ridge regarding the Gulf? I have forgotten where to find these things or how to look at them.
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1351. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Is now. Make it two systems, actually.


Old run, new run is up to 168hrs.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Won't matter it isn't developing the wave.


Is now. Make it two systems, actually.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23882
I just hope nothing for the Gulf this year, although I do not want to see anyone else suffer either!

I try to keep up with ya'll but I can't spend as much time learning this stuff as I would like.

I remember we discussed Gustav last year. Please, not another one, lol!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Kori, thanks in advance for your info. I recall you were very helpful last year!


Thanks. I'm here to help this year as well, which promises to be very active for the US. If I am wrong, I will be the first one to admit it.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
So basically the ridge will allow any storm off the african coast that heads in the direction of the GOM will effect the Gulf Coast? and How many landfalling systems u think the Gulf Coast can see this year? Texas really needs the rain bad!


Well the ridge isn't that far north or east at the moment, but more than it has been, which is what I find so significant. As we head into peak season, we should see this ridge retreat north or eastward. This is typical of ENSO neutral years.

As for landfalls, I obviously can't predict that. I do think we will see at least one hurricane hit the Gulf Coast this year, most likely the western or northern Gulf Coast. But I also feel the east coast needs to watch out as well.
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Kori, thanks in advance for your info. I recall you were very helpful last year!
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Texas does indeed need the rain, just no repeat of Ike! So what does all this mean for the Gulf areas?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Uh, there are indications that that's already happening. The Gulf Coast ridge is much weaker than before. With the midwestern ridge forecast to slide eastward over the next few days, the window will be open. I don't see any reason that should change as we head into August and September.
So basically the ridge will allow any storm off the african coast that heads in the direction of the GOM will effect the Gulf Coast? and How many landfalling systems u think the Gulf Coast can see this year? Texas really needs the rain bad!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
when is dat high going to move away from the midwest and allow storms to enter the GOM?


Uh, there are indications that that's already happening. The Gulf Coast ridge is much weaker than before. With the midwestern ridge forecast to slide eastward over the next few days, the window will be open. I don't see any reason that should change as we head into August and September.
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1342. JLPR2
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
JLPR2 - just keep it out of the Gulf! lol


Won't matter it isn't developing the wave.
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JLPR2 - just keep it out of the Gulf! lol
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1340. JLPR2
Waiting for the ECMWF to finish its run.

So far the CATL wave has a decent presence in it, similar to last night's run.

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I just wonder when all the rain in Louisiana is going to stop! I guess it could be looked at as a good thing.
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when is dat high going to move away from the midwest and allow storms to enter the GOM?
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Business is a boomin.....we are runnin hard.....so Bermuda High is actually settin up this year??


Good news.

And yeah, the high definitely looks to be setting up shop to a position favorable for US landfalls. I will keep you informed throughout the season, don't worry.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What's odd about it? It followed a typical June pattern, in that a trough picked it up and curved it toward the Florida west coast. The only oddity about Alma was its intensity.

I just noticed how it start moving Northwest on land over Central America then Northeast into the GOM, then Northwest away from the West Coast of FL. and then back to the Northeast making landfall on the Panhandle of FL. exited the East Coast of the US and made a 2nd landfall on Cape Cod. You are right about the intensity though. Imagine Spaghetti Models & a projected path for this storm?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey there, Ron. How goes it?


Business is a boomin.....we are runnin hard.....so Bermuda High is actually settin up this year??
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's not a track you see everyday...weather patterns were strange back then.


What's odd about it? It followed a typical June pattern, in that a trough picked it up and curved it toward the Florida west coast. The only oddity about Alma was its intensity.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Watup Kori

Thanks for the Blog Update!!


Hey there, Ron. How goes it?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


The earliest hurricane to strike the United States since 1900 was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.

That's not a track you see everyday...weather patterns were strange back then.
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1331. JRRP
see you tomorrow
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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