Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:
btw Ron, I hadn't realized you lost friends to Ivan. My sincerest apologies then, if my comment about being inside the hurricane offended you. You know I never would intentionally.


Thanks Kori.....but you will find that I am the probably the least offendable person you have ever associated with.......is offendable a word??

No Prob!!
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btw Ron, I hadn't realized you lost friends to Ivan. My sincerest apologies then, if my comment about being inside the hurricane offended you. You know I never would intentionally.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


No, there was something in the fall of 2009, my brother in law is a doctor in Mobile and I remember warning him. Maybe it turned out to be nothing?


2007 I was still in Texas...


Oh! I think you're referring to the area of low pressure (90L) that seemed to take on tropical characteristics just before landfall near the MS/AL border. This was in late May.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Ivan made landfall west of our area but spawned numerous long duration tornadoes that hit our property and killed friends. We were excited because We had a new generator and have never actually had a major hurricane hit the area. When trees started flying and kids screaming we were suddenly no longer excited.

Kori can better explain the effects of the Bermuda high but it can leave north GOM more exposed if I understand it properly.


Wow, sorry about losing loved ones and friends.

The only thing I recall about Ivan, I was still in Houston, and it seemed no one could figure out where he was going!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The way I see it, the humanitarian side of us does not desire to see a storm. But the meteorological side of us does. It's the same for myself, really, and it's pretty hard to explain. I feel appalled and heartbroken at what these storms bring, but I do enjoy being out in the action, similar to Cantore et al from TWC.

I actually plan to film the footage of any hurricane that might come my way this year. I just got a new video camera in preparation for it. :P


Me too, it's almost a sick fascination. Makes no sense!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not that I know of. I think you're perhaps thinking of Tropical Depression Ten in 2007.



No, there was something in the fall of 2009, my brother in law is a doctor in Mobile and I remember warning him. Maybe it turned out to be nothing?


2007 I was still in Texas...
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


What did you go through or see with Ivan???

And what about the Bermuda High? I guess I know so very little.


Ivan made landfall west of our area but spawned numerous long duration tornadoes that hit our property and killed friends. We were excited because We had a new generator and have never actually had a major hurricane hit the area. When trees started flying and kids screaming we were suddenly no longer excited.

Kori can better explain the effects of the Bermuda high but it can leave north GOM more exposed if I understand it properly.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


I never understand why anyone would want one to hit, other than maybe an adrenaline rush for those who do wish it.

I have lived through too many and hate to see people suffer and gorgeous oaks trees downed...just irks me.


The way I see it, the humanitarian side of us does not desire to see a storm. But the meteorological side of us does. It's the same for myself, really, and it's pretty hard to explain. I feel appalled and heartbroken at what these storms bring, but I do enjoy being out in the action, similar to Cantore et al from TWC.

I actually plan to film the footage of any hurricane that might come my way this year. I just got a new video camera in preparation for it. :P
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Bonnie I do remember. Seemed to be a non-event.

Wasn't there a storm that hit around Mobile, but small, in 2009?


Not that I know of. I think you're perhaps thinking of Tropical Depression Ten in 2007.

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Quoting traumaboyy:


IVAN the Terrible broke me from ever "wanting" a hurricane to hit!! I am very happy with Cat 4-5 monster FISH STORMS!!

Bermuda high sets up could definately change that pattern though.


What did you go through or see with Ivan???

And what about the Bermuda High? I guess I know so very little.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


IVAN the Terrible broke me from ever "wanting" a hurricane to hit!! I am very happy with Cat 4-5 monster FISH STORMS!!

Bermuda high sets up could definately change that pattern though.


I never understand why anyone would want one to hit, other than maybe an adrenaline rush for those who do wish it.

I have lived through too many and hate to see people suffer and gorgeous oaks trees downed...just irks me.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


LOL!!!

It seems those systems last year were nothing, although that can be a good thing!


IVAN the Terrible broke me from ever "wanting" a hurricane to hit!! I am very happy with Cat 4-5 monster FISH STORMS!!

Bermuda high sets up could definately change that pattern though.
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Gosh, I do remember watching Bonnie and it seemed like forever!

Bonnie was the Walmart wave, I do believe.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Work different places....Got the Tboy handle when I was Paramedic/FF few years ago and handle stuck!

TD 5 missed Panama City but Hit me when I was driving home from NOLA last year around Mobile.....close but not even a pine cone dropped on my lawn!!


LOL!!!

It seems those systems last year were nothing, although that can be a good thing!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


That is why I do believe I want to work nights when I am finished. I have done it in other fields, so why not?

You work in Trauma? Obviously?


Work different places....Got the Tboy handle when I was Paramedic/FF few years ago and handle stuck!

TD 5 missed Panama City but Hit me when I was driving home from NOLA last year around Mobile.....close but not even a pine cone dropped on my lawn!!
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Bonnie I do remember. Seemed to be a non-event.

Wasn't there a storm that hit around Mobile, but small, in 2009?
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


I think that was the one that crossed Florida, came here, then circled around.

I was in ICU for two weeks with a ruptured appendix/septic shock at that time, but I do recall watching the system when I was coherent.

Was that the one I am thinking of?


Yeah it was. The only other one that came up this way was Bonnie, which opened up into a sharp surface trough before moving inland. Passed right over my house too, heh. Didn't notice a thing.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


TD5 I believe. That was the biggest forecast bust I've ever seen, both by myself and the NWS. I expected a substantial rain event, yet we got nothing.


I think that was the one that crossed Florida, came here, then circled around.

I was in ICU for two weeks with a ruptured appendix/septic shock at that time, but I do recall watching the system when I was coherent.

Was that the one I am thinking of?
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Oh yeah, Claudette! Kind of like that weak system last year that flowed around here and back again.


TD5 I believe. That was the biggest forecast bust I've ever seen, both by myself and the NWS. I expected a substantial rain event, yet we got nothing.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh wait, I just remembered Claudette in 2009. Didn't that one strike near Panama City? You're just lucky the west side was so dry and sheared. But I still succeeded... somewhat.


Oh yeah, Claudette! Kind of like that weak system last year that flowed around here and back again.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Bla bla bla....You'll miss and hit Texas!!


Oh wait, I just remembered Claudette in 2009. Didn't that one strike near Panama City? You're just lucky the west side was so dry and sheared. But I still succeeded... somewhat.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


lol...Not if you work nights!!


That is why I do believe I want to work nights when I am finished. I have done it in other fields, so why not?

You work in Trauma? Obviously?
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Insomnia sucks!!!


lol...Not if you work nights!!
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Insomnia sucks!!!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Left at Albuquerque!!


Ahhh, the New Mexico stand off!

Cute!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


How do you miss Texas?


Left at Albuquerque!!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Bla bla bla....You'll miss and hit Texas!!


How do you miss Texas?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


And one of these days, I'll succeed. ;)


Bla bla bla....You'll miss and hit Texas!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Anyway, thanks for the concern you guys. JLPR, that's more reason to hope Obama ends up paying social security checks.


I could be wrong, but I doubt he pulls anything stupid like that. He would lose all of the elderly vote.

Again, email me if you need anything. I am way older and like a Mom, so don't worry about that either, lol.

I need a son anyway, I have all daughters!!!
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Anyway, thanks for the concern you guys. JLPR, that's more reason to hope Obama ends up paying social security checks.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Kori is a great guy....but watch out....he will wish-cast a storm your direction quick!!

He's been trying to coax a storm toward my beloved Panama City for two seasons now!!


And one of these days, I'll succeed. ;)
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And if he does wish cast one this way...it only hurts him since we are in the same area, lol!
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Quoting TomTaylor:
sorry to hear that, man. Wish you the best of luck and I hope all goes well


I'll spring back somehow.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Kori is a great guy....but watch out....he will wish-cast a storm your direction quick!!

He's been trying to coax a storm toward my beloved Panama City for two seasons now!!


Haha, but I do recall he was one of the few that helped explain things to me last year.

You know how this site is...I lurked since 2006 but was leery of joining or commenting. He has been one of the kind people on here!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Indeed, life does go on. I have found, through the horrible circumstances that can happen and do happen, we come out stronger!


Precisely. That's the way I look at it.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Kori, if you need something, let me know - email. You seem like a good person! Don't have much but you never know!


Kori is a great guy....but watch out....he will wish-cast a storm your direction quick!!

He's been trying to coax a storm toward my beloved Panama City for two seasons now!!
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JLPR2, I hope your family makes it out ok.
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1391. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm tired and confused, so it looked new to me. lol.


It's late and the eyes start getting confused after a long day.
Actually I'm heading to get some z's.

Quoting KoritheMan:


August might be a bad month for me, actually. I still live with my family despite being 20. The problem? Our only sense of financial security comes from social security checks each month. And according to Obama, if the debt ceiling is not raised soon, he will not be able to afford to send out social security checks next month.

What that means for me is, I lose the place I'm living in. My dad would allow me to move in with him (I live with some of my relatives, long story), but his landlord would likely evict him if he found out we were living there for free.

I'm still not quite sure what I'm going to do yet. If his landlord allows us to live with him for just one month, we'll probably be able to get back on our feet.

But yeah, just thought I'd share that. I'd love to hang out with you guys, but August could be a really bad month for me.


That sucks, I hope they find a solution soon, my dad and grandma depend on their checks from social security and that would mean all of my family's expenses would suddenly rest on my mom's shoulders; not good. :\
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Quoting KoritheMan:


August might be a bad month for me, actually. I still live with my family despite being 20. The problem? Our only sense of financial security comes from social security checks each month. And according to Obama, if the debt ceiling is not raised soon, he will not be able to afford to send out social security checks next month.

What that means for me is, I lose the place I'm living in. My dad would allow me to move in with him (I live with some of my relatives, long story), but his landlord would likely evict him if he found out we were living there for free.

I'm still not quite sure what I'm going to do yet. If his landlord allows us to live with him for just one month, we'll probably be able to get back on our feet.

But yeah, just thought I'd share that. I'd love to hang out with you guys, but August could be a really bad month for me.


Kori, if you need something, let me know - email. You seem like a good person! Don't have much but you never know!
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Quoting TomTaylor:
sorry to hear that, man. Wish you the best of luck and I hope all goes well


Me too. I hope the best for everyone that is struggling right now...although that is probably the majority of us!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


August might be a bad month for me, actually. I still live with my family despite being 20. The problem? Our only sense of financial security comes from social security checks each month. And according to Obama, if the debt ceiling is not raised soon, he will not be able to afford to send out social security checks next month.

What that means for me is, I lose the place I'm living in. My dad would allow me to move in with him (I live with some of my relatives, long story), but his landlord would likely evict him if he found out we were living there for free.

I'm still not quite sure what I'm going to do yet. If his landlord allows us to live with him for just one month, we'll probably be able to get back on our feet.

But yeah, just thought I'd share that. I'd love to hang out with you guys, but August could be a really bad month for me.
sorry to hear that, man. Wish you the best of luck and I hope all goes well
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I too think it's a scare tactic, but you never know.

But hey, I've had all kinds of stuff happen to me, to the point where I'm not nearly as worried as I could be. Life goes on despite my problems, despite all of our problems.


Indeed, life does go on. I have found, through the horrible circumstances that can happen and do happen, we come out stronger!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Completely understand....I R a Nurze meself and good book lurnin is esenchal to kwalite Nursin!?


LOL!!!
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That sounds so fun!

I might be down in the Quarter on the 29th. A friend from Texas has a layover on his way to D.C. and wants to go on a Ghost Tour.
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1384. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
TYPHOON MA-ON (T1106)
15:00 PM JST July 19 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ma-On (960 hPa) located at 32.6N 133.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center in east quadrant
60 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in east quadrant
220 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 33.4N 136.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 31.6N 141.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 31.5N 145.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
========================

Typhoon will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours

Typhoon will move north northeast for the next 12 hours then move to east

Typhoon will likely be downgraded to severe tropical storm within 24 hours

Typhoon will weaken because landfall is expected within 12 hours

Final initial Dvorak number will be T4.0 after 24 hours
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


That sounds so fun! Wish I could participate too but my nursing program starts back Aug. 9th. I need to have a clear/sober head, lol!


Completely understand....I R a Nurze meself and good book lurnin is esenchal to kwalite Nursin!?
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Quoting traumaboyy:
Kori we will b in NOLA from 11th-14th will let you know more the closer it gets. Maybe we can work it out!!


Hopefully so. I'd love that.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


The entire debt thing is scary but SS is covered or should be. It's a scare tactic he is using...but there is no telling what they may choose to fund or not fund. Try not to stress about it.

I may lose some financial aid for my nursing program...but I would rather the issues get resolved.


I too think it's a scare tactic, but you never know.

But hey, I've had all kinds of stuff happen to me, to the point where I'm not nearly as worried as I could be. Life goes on despite my problems, despite all of our problems.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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