Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

Share this Blog
0
+

Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 131 - 81

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Quoting RitaEvac:


Monsoon rains on the way?


From your lips to God's ears!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current headlines...could this heat be significantly radiating, convecting and/or conducting into the atmosphere and/or oceans? Does anyone know if there is a correlation between tectonic and geothermal activity and cyclonic activity?

Earth Still Retains Much of Its Original Heat

Did you know: the Earth produces 44 trillion watts of heat

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It should not be long now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


interesting....we've seen that here, too


Monsoon rains on the way?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Fire ants are on the run at my place, what little rain I've received they're popping up right and left. Something's coming...


interesting....we've seen that here, too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
kwgirl. These things will drive you crazy. Hows the weather in paradise?

Neocicada hieroglyphica singing by Joe Green from Cicada Mania on Vimeo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fire ants are on the run at my place, what little rain I've received they're popping up right and left. Something's coming...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
100 at my house before noon, I am doing my part to heat up the tropics but come on this Heat is Unreal even for Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon everyone. When I saw that TS Bret had been named last night, I knew this blog would be really excited. This past weekend, while I was working at East Martello, the cicadas were screaming in the trees in the parade ground. Usually we don't hear them until August or September. I believe, as last year, that this is an indication of an early winter. I will reserve judgment until I see some migrating birds. Please note, it does NOT mean a shorter end to the hurricane season, just maybe early relief for this heat wave.


My entire life I've been calling them locusts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd say we are going to have an invest soon as that wave comes off Africa in a few days. That MDR is starting to really moisten up as well too. Time will tell. My guess we are about to get our first Cape Verde storm of the season late this week or early next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
from the NHC.
Q14. Why are NWS text products typed in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS?
A14. It is not because we want to scream at you! This practice goes back many, many years and relates to international requirements for message dissemination. Some of our international partners still use low-tech dissemination technology which requires the continued use of ALL CAPS. Since the U.S. is an international member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we follow those guidelines that still exist for the benefit of all nations. That is why TAFs, AIREPs, Marine Forecasts, etc. are typed in ALL CAPS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5 day..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
9.9N/28.13W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
28.25N/76.98W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
04E/TD/D/CX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon everyone. When I saw that TS Bret had been named last night, I knew this blog would be really excited. This past weekend, while I was working at East Martello, the cicadas were screaming in the trees in the parade ground. Usually we don't hear them until August or September. I believe, as last year, that this is an indication of an early winter. I will reserve judgment until I see some migrating birds. Please note, it does NOT mean a shorter end to the hurricane season, just maybe early relief for this heat wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
It's really nice to see Colorado State Univ handing the awesome spaghetti plots that they couldn't handle the hot linking of over to NCAR instead of some pay to use company like some other universities have been doing with their weather products.

For all the model bashers out there:

"These plots should be considered an 'experts' resource - they should not be used for decision-making by nonqualified individuals."

"DISCLAIMER: By using this web site (any pages under http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/), you agree to release and indemnify the owner of this page (Jonathan Vigh) from any and all liability, damage, or loss arising from your use of, or any decisions based on, this web site. The model guidance products on this page are derived from various numerical weather prediction models or statistical methods. They come from multiple numerical weather prediction centers around the world and their status may be operational or experimental. These models are frequently prone to LARGE errors. ABSOLUTELY NO GUARANTEES are made as to the accuracy or timeliness of this data. None of the information here should be considered as official guidance -- DO NOT USE FOR LIFE AND DEATH DECISIONS! For official storm information including watches and warnings, rely on the National Hurricane Center, your local National Weather Service office, and your local emergency officials. Please also view the general disclaimer for this web site."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goodbye Bret,Oh how we loved thee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
may get an alert status circle for wave off africa soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice wave going to exit Africa soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
So Nogaps, Euro, Canadian, and Gfs support some sort of development with the wave emerging off of africa. Euro,CMC,Nogaps support it going north of the greater caribbean is. and towards the turks and caicos.
Gfs the outliar bringing it into the windwards...
Cindy possible in 7 days.

could be a screamer
wait watch see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxgeek723:
NHC forecasts Major Hurricane Dora in a few days.

A CAT 4 NOTHING MORE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds at 40,000 feet in 72 hours...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Be back in a few hours..... check back in at the intermediate advisory, but will not post anything...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some one is definitely wrong here. LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SQUAWK:


One of the reasons for "all caps" is that these reports go out over standard military message format. That format has no provision for lower case letters. All caps is the standard and is not "shouting" as you call it. It has been that way for more years than you have probably been around.


Yep... Back when computers couldn't do lowercase is the reason.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So Nogaps, Euro, Canadian, and Gfs support some sort of development with the wave emerging off of africa. Euro,CMC,Nogaps support it going north of the greater caribbean is. and towards the turks and caicos.
Gfs the outliar bringing it into the windwards...
Cindy possible in 7 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC forecasts Major Hurricane Dora in a few days.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe this un will break the Cap odog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heavy thunderstorms for Florida on the 20th...maybe..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat,

The storms get to the edge of Houston and dissapate - over and over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Are there anymore recon. missions for Bret?



Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 18 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BRET
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0502A BRET
C. 19/1500Z
D. 29.7N 76.1W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0602A BRET
C. 19/0245Z
D. 30.5N 74.8W
E. 20/0530Z TO 20/1100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY
FIXES WHILE BRET REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Light rain here in Houston just north east of the 610 and I-10 interchange on the west side. Looks like we could get some heavier rain in about 2-3 hours if the storms just north of Humble don't dissipate and continue on their current course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are there anymore recon. missions for Bret?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wouldnt count this storm out yet..a little deviation where the outer banks are in the map now..a little bit but maybe a trend??

8:00am


11:00AM


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
long high here
And centered near the Azores..This will be interesting to watch as the peak of the season approaches..The GFS has a storm moving into the Windward Islands in 156 hours...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
04E/TD/D/CX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another low off the coast of Florida in three days..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
..The Rescue Rain is en route, Houston

Do you copy?




Copy that. We have citizens out doing their rain dances to assist in the rescue right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
89. Skyepony (Mod)
It's really nice to see Colorado State Univ handing the awesome spaghetti plots that they couldn't handle the hot linking of over to NCAR instead of some pay to use company like some other universities have been doing with their weather products.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
The NHC should quit assuming that the public is composed of total morons, and release the actual measured Max.Sus.Wind and the actual averaged speed of storm-center movement between two reports instead of rounding to the nearest 5knots or 5mph. They should also release the center's actual heading averaged between two reports.
And it's rather amazing that HurricaneHunters routinely report center positions to a thousandth of a degree (0.06 nautical mile), yet the NHC releases only down to a tenth (6 nautical miles) even after excusing themselves beforehand for half-degree errors. Yes there are difficulties some times in locating the center, but those some times aren't nearly most of the time.
Plus they should translate distances into kilometres and speeds into k/h. Typing data containing all 3 measurement systems ain't that hard, and most of the world would find it highly useful.

But then they can't stop SHOUTing for attention, not even when nothing merits such manic behaviour.
Studies have shown that most-approaching-all people have difficulty reading allCAPs printing beyond a short word or phrase. And have far less less comprehension of longer allCAPs writings.
If the idea is to serve the public, they should make things easy for the public. And save the SHOUT for emphasis about truly dangerous situation.

One item of note:

The "center" is not a 10-foot "spot" on the water. It is an area that is usually several miles in diameter, that does this thing called "move". Because the center isn't a spot, there aren't any incredibly precise readings regarding its location and/or movement.

Regarding winds - the measured winds are an infitesmially small sampling. A HUGE "fudge factor" has to be involved, hence the rounding. By the same token, not all storms have HHs flying through them 24/7. Most storms rely on HHs every 12 hours, and lots of satellite measurements.

And finally... my apologies if mother nature does not work within rigidly defined, highly precise terms. The NHC is fairly accurate, but their precision is necessarily nebulous, due to well.. nature.

Remember the differences between precision and accuracy.

If you have an item that needs to be measured, and you measure it to 1.1 inches, you can be accurate, but not precise. However, you measure it to be 1.100012 inches, you can be precise, but not accurate, if the actual measurement is 1.078 inches.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
9.9N/28.13W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
28.25N/76.98W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floodzonenc:


The all CAPS message is harder to read without a doubt. etc.

I'll pick some nits. The Wunderground tropical page still contains a link labeled QuikSCAT Satellite Winds which leads to a page with no data (RIP). It has another link to "NOAA RAMMB imagery (great new site in 2007!)" which is apparently the year they last updated the links. They have another link labeled "Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NHC, updated 2007)" which was actually last updated July, 2009.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS in wilmington, nc..models are not in agreement with the shortwave trough

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
FEATURE WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE IT WEAKER. IT MAY BE THAT THE
GFS IS SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK...GIVEN THE BULLS EYES IT IS
PRODUCING. FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Be back later...
It appears from latest satellite Estimates Brets Weakening....
Bret T# 2.7
Weakening Flag : ON
Though they did just find Raw 3.2....
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.9 3.2


Well time to move on i guess
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 131 - 81

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
70 °F
Overcast