Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

Share this Blog
0
+

Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 181 - 131

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Quoting caneswatch:


He's talking about the storm in the Eastern Pacific LOL


My bad .. strange to retire a name for the Atlantic and use it for the Pacific ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it keeps changing every day.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Note the EPAC TWO is not out yet either and there's nothing out there but Dora. The reason the TWO is later than normal is because they wrote a special update on Dora, there is nothing out int he Atlantic but Bret that is worth watching for development in 48 hours. Beyond that, no idea.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting Skyepony:
Kinda interesting the model that has done the best overall with Bret, the GFDN, with an average of 6.7nm error lands this on the border of North & South Carolina.



we sure as heck could use the rain here in coastal SC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Waltanater:
...and "where" is your place exactly? You say something is coming but you don't say where! LOL


Read post 144
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

That's from 11:00 am ????

In PDT it's 11 AM,but it's 2 PM in EDT and 8 PM in Poland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like TS Dora might get quite Powerful later this week...if they have a Dora, why no Boots?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


PDT, or 2pm EDT.

Oooops!
I see. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Yep... Back when computers couldn't do lowercase is the reason.


Actually Dak, it was before we even had computers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still no 2 pm TWO. I wonder what they're waiting for....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


interesting....we've seen that here, too


Are you guys busting at the seems with sarcasm, or what? Fireants scramming being a tell? I know animals can be on guard and get out of harms way a bit better than us in certain instances, but fireants?? And where are you guys located, seeing such activity?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

That's from 11:00 am ????


PDT, or 2pm EDT.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This will be why our TWO is late, and I guarantee almost that the TWO will be empty.
000
WTPZ64 KNHC 181800
TCUEP4

TROPICAL STORM DORA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...DEPRESSION REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DORA.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...10.6N 92.3W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

That's from 11:00 am ????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reid221:


Hurricane name Dora retired .. 2011 D name is Don ..


He's talking about the storm in the Eastern Pacific LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I cannot believe the rain we are getting here in Biloxi.... prayed for it but it is incredible and it is not letting up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxgeek723:
NHC forecasts Major Hurricane Dora in a few days.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thunder rumbling close by, just to my North right now.
Looks like we will get wet in a few.
Bring it on>>>>>>
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This will be why our TWO is late, and I guarantee almost that the TWO will be empty.
000
WTPZ64 KNHC 181800
TCUEP4

TROPICAL STORM DORA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...DEPRESSION REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DORA.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...10.6N 92.3W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Fire ants are on the run at my place, what little rain I've received they're popping up right and left. Something's coming...
...and "where" is your place exactly? You say something is coming but you don't say where! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We now have TS Dora.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:
kwgirl. These things will drive you crazy. Hows the weather in paradise?

Neocicada hieroglyphica singing by Joe Green from Cicada Mania on Vimeo.
In the Keys it has been warm and humid, but not like the rest of the country. Being surrounded by water helps to keep us cooler than the mainland. Saturday was a bit much. LOL I had to sit by the portable A/C at the fort. Just standing around I was sweating buckets. Sunday was better. Less humid and some cloud cover to lessen the sun's intensity. Could use some more rain. So sick of seeing it rain into the ocean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
149. 7544
looks like bret is trying to nudge a little west at this hour ?//?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
So Nogaps, Euro, Canadian, and Gfs support some sort of development with the wave emerging off of africa. Euro,CMC,Nogaps support it going north of the greater caribbean is. and towards the turks and caicos.
Gfs the outliar bringing it into the windwards...
Cindy possible in 7 days.


Wow, now a lot of the models are on this. Definitely a must-watch. I'll see what the 5 o'clock news in WPB says about this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
TWO still not out.


could be notifying DOOMCON headquarters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Fire ants are on the run at my place, what little rain I've received they're popping up right and left. Something's coming...


I hope it's more rain........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWO still not out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting duajones78413:


where are you guys at?


Between Houston and Galveston TX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
TWO taking a little longer than usual.


Too busy getting updates out on the two systems, I'd guess. Don't expect much from the TWO anyway, nothing else really brewing in the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
TWO taking a little longer than usual.

They may be trying to find something to write about???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWO taking a little longer than usual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting duajones78413:


where are you guys at?

I'm at 11n 61w.
It's a Global Issue.....

:):))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
04E/TD/D/CX


Wow Keep!
Looks like this one already has some rotation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting duajones78413:


where are you guys at?


Charleston SC

kinda the same here pottery
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
137. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon AF307 just got turned on..prepare for take off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


interesting....we've seen that here, too


where are you guys at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wave near 10N28W getting interesting.

Anybody looking at this one?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


interesting....we've seen that here, too

I'm glad I'm not alone.....

Seems like there are more of them this season than ever!
I have been bitten, chewed, munched, stung and ravaged by them evertime I go into the garden around here for the past 2 weeks.
Millions......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RAMSDIS moved the 1K floater to Bret.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropospheric humidity map..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


Monsoon rains on the way?


From your lips to God's ears!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 181 - 131

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.