Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Everytime a blog is spammed 1000 trolls are killed in napalm strikes.
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What, exactly, is gained by reposting that?!?!?!?!?!
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90 posts in 7 minutes...Guiness' book opened:D
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Keeper, we need you
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Tropical Storm Bret appears to be intensifying further on satellite imagery as deep convection continues to build and wrap around from pretty much all directions now and outflow has become better established.
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307. 7544
hey cchs looks like a feeder band over so fl from bret happen could he be wobbling a little west due to this
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
WHERE IS ADMIN?!
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Quoting kwgirl:
No. Actually it is a model of the "Island Home". A shallow drafted wide beam gaff rigged schooner that was used primarily in the shallow waters of the keys for trading, transport, etc. A friend of mine built it and we sailed her off of Higgs beach. Looks real, huh!


Pretty cool! "Wolf" was in KW in the early 8o's...you may have seen her...
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Good grief.
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I still don't have the Atlantic TWO and it is now 2:21.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Anyone else notice a possible eye-like feature developing in recent images with Tropical Storm Bret?


I believe that is just a gap in convection, does not appear eye-like at all to me.
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288. txjac
Quoting BobinTampa:
I don't think NRAamy is even banned is she? She's on here all the time.



I havent seen her in days ...
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286. 7544
wow
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
Quoting presslord:


Is your avatar of "Wolf"...if so, she's a wonderful boat...I had the pleasure of sailing her once off of Key West...
No. Actually it is a model of the "Island Home". A shallow drafted wide beam gaff rigged schooner that was used primarily in the shallow waters of the keys for trading, transport, etc. A friend of mine built it and we sailed her off of Higgs beach. Looks real, huh!
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Anyone else notice a possible eye-like feature developing in recent images with Tropical Storm Bret?
It almost looked like two bugs eyes O O
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.