Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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The convection seems more symmetrical...
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That troll wouldn't have lasted so long, and would have been relegated to graybar almost immediately, if our system wasn't still "broken".

(Seriously, it couldn't possibly take this long to "repair". Something else is going on.)
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378. 7544
yeap hes lokking good now
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
I dont know how to delete my post


Just click on "modify comment" below your post, and erase the undesired content.
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Quoting WoodyFL:
What was that??

Marsians attacked the blog:D
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Quoting txjac:



Pat, will they also get the responses from people quoting the spammer? I would hate to see anyone's personal information out there


RE-posting or quoting idiocy is always a bad idea.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Quoting OceanSeaBreeze:


how did that person type so fast?
That was either a simple paste-click "post" or a script.
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it looks like its trying to get its act together i think its on its way to being a strong ts or hurricane
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Quoting OceanSeaBreeze:


how did that person type so fast?
Copy n' Paste
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
I dont know how to delete my post


click "Modify Comment" and erase it...then repost
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Quoting OceanSeaBreeze:


how did that person type so fast?


Copy + paste + post
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I'm sure everybody clicked those links of her personal info
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Sorry for reposting. It has been removed. Now back to the weather, In the long range forecast the models had a system forming and moving toward LA MS coast. Anyone else noticed that?
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Odd to see my town's name printed on the side of a satellite... (not a space-hub nor a huge town)




(Globalstar - Covington, LA)

http://neworleanscitybusiness.com/thenewsroom/201 1/07/18/covington-company-launches-6-satellites/
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I dont know how to delete my post
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What was that??
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says no change:

AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 30, 45


I highly doubt no change given the much improved satellite appearance. We'll see what the inbound Hurricane Hunter finds.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
folks who quoted the troll, please edit the personal info out of your post.

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Nothing new in the TWO.
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355. txjac
Quoting Patrap:




WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans. As noted in our terms of service,

Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time.

Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.

For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.



Pat, will they also get the responses from people quoting the spammer? I would hate to see anyone's personal information out there
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if you reposted that...it would be a REALLY nice gesture to delete it
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I put the troll on ignore and I don't have to read that garbage from them anymore
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Well that was interesting. I suggest those of you who quoted the crazy person, delete/edit your posts, since they still show that person's personal info.
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Nada, as expected.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181826
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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No even JFV would not stoop this low
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folks when you quote the troll, you repost all of the personal info. please edit.

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OK, TracyHall.
You proved your point (whatever it was) Now please stop.

You obviously have Problems.....
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if you reposted that...it would be a REALLY nice gesture to delete it...
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345. 7544
thanks you admins
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Quoting presslord:


Pretty cool! "Wolf" was in KW in the early 8o's...you may have seen her...
Yes, I remember the "Wolf" though I never sailed on her.
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Quoting floodzonenc:


The all CAPS message is harder to read without a doubt.

We can develop technology to lay a bomb on target from 3000 miles away within a cm of accuracy, but we can't change a text format...
It is also not suprising that the NHC said last Friday that TCF is not expected in the next 7 days, yet one did develop!

On another note, the fact that they almost always "under-predict" the intensity of storms makes me believe that the "predicting intensity" part of the forecasting process is also a partial factor on intial storm development. If they can nail this down, they can improve on their predictions overall.

Is there anyone out there that is a REAL expert on this that can elaborate on this for me?
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ATCF says no change:

AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 30, 45
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans. As noted in our terms of service,

Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time.

Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.

For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Admin..you might want to delete those posts that quoted the information as well
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Wow can someone trow the Ban hammer? This is crazy, cant read anymore here cause of so many trolls.:/
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I guess Admin needs to put a permanent ban on TraceyHall. Seems the multiple posts are being done on purpose. No one else is having this problem.
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YES TRACEY'S GONE.
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Stop quoting that information that obvious troll and disgrace has been posting since you're just furthering the problem.
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333. 7544
looks like the twos when posted from the nhc lol
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Wow...Thanks disappearing the comments. Dirty laundry in a weather blog would be okay, if we could just get some darned rain to wash it.

Fire ants love just love the current weather, sporadic rain with hot and humid in between.

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Everytime a blog is spammed 1000 trolls are killed in napalm strikes.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.