Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Reposting...

It is also not suprising that the NHC said last Friday that TCF is not expected in the next 7 days, yet one did develop!

On another note, the fact that they almost always "under-predict" the intensity of storms makes me believe that the "predicting intensity" part of the forecasting process is also a partial factor on intial storm development. If they can nail this down, they can improve on their predictions overall.

Is there anyone out there that is a REAL expert on this that can elaborate on this for me?

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428. 7544
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bret up to 60.

AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 50, 998, TS


looks like a 60mph storm if he keeps this up now n maybecome the 1st hur. of this atl season
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427. SLU
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Gulf looking a bit agitated...
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Quoting SQUAWK:


My thought exactly! Wonder who he used to be?


sometimes I wonder who I used to be.....
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Quoting Patrap:


Looks like an eye with a break in the eye wall on the north east side of all sides. But frame by frame it looks like Brets showing his true colors.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting muddertracker:
Can anyone guess which way Bret is moving right now?


Looks to be right on or just a tad left of the track. New convection swinging around may have caused that left jog, likely to correct. The map below is all you need to see to see where it is going.


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Quoting atmoaggie:
You sure learned a lot in the last day!


My thought exactly! Wonder who he used to be?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Darren23:
I looked back to see if this hasn't been posted but apparently, Bret's ATCF file has been updated again
AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 50, 998, TS


Nice...998mb.
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Bret up to 60.

AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 50, 998, TS
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417. Jax82
I dont believe thats an eye at all, its just playing games with your actual eyes :)

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I looked back to see if this hasn't been posted but apparently, Bret's ATCF file has been updated again
AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 50, 998, TS
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Bret is a rather small tropical storm..Winds extend outward only 50 miles..
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414. SLU
WOW. Right smack on 10n 30w. Quite impressive to see so much spin on a wave near the Cape Verdes in July.


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Quoting OceanSeaBreeze:


As a lurker and unbias viewer,

i believe that with the current system you can report, minimize and hide comments for any comment,

so lets say that you dont like me for some reason , and i dont do anything wrong, my posts are good but you dont like me... so you report and flag and hide my posts and i become placed in the below average filter and nobody see's my posts.

see the flaw?
You sure learned a lot in the last day!
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Bret will be a 65-70mph tropical storm when the hunters investigate. The eye-like feature may be closer to the real thing than we believe...



Could be however, remember that Bret has been munching on some dry air for some time now. Could have likely trapped a little pocket in the circulation.
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Finally they deleted that character. About time.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
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It's actually been bumped up then(slightly) the T# 2 and a half hours ago was weaker(the weakening flag was on, shortly) 2.7 with 40 knots and 1005 MB, so it has fluxuated back, and is beginning to strengthen once again...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
406. 7544
bret stalled ?
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Bret is wrapping convection around its core, I wouldn't be surprised if it made hurricane strength in the next day or two.
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I'm going to go out on a limb and say Bret will be a 65-70mph tropical storm when the hunters investigate. The eye-like feature may be closer to the real thing than we believe...

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Miamihurricane can you post the latest satellite estimates?
SAB remains at T3.0. Nothing from TAFB as of right now.

18/1745 UTC 28.1N 77.3W T3.0/3.0 BRET
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48 hours...
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Reposting...

It is also not suprising that the NHC said last Friday that TCF is not expected in the next 7 days, yet one did develop!

On another note, the fact that they almost always "under-predict" the intensity of storms makes me believe that the "predicting intensity" part of the forecasting process is also a partial factor on intial storm development. If they can nail this down, they can improve on their predictions overall.

Is there anyone out there that is a REAL expert on this that can elaborate on this for me?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

What do you imagine that might be?

Wasn't there some drama over this feature during the whole "StormW" debacle? I seem to remember something about how "unfair" the feature was for some reason...?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

What do you imagine that might be?
*shrug*
Well, I hope it's a system overhaul...but it seems that could have been done without shutting this system down.

It has been abused for years, certainly, but has it's uses. (See 30 minutes ago.)
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Anyone need troll spray, or a sanity pill? I brought extra for the PM shift.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Winds at 200mb...Link
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Quoting OceanSeaBreeze:


im just wondering, if it turns into a hurricane... does the steering change. anyone have a map for that?


No, the weakness is there all the way up to 200mb.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
That troll wouldn't have lasted so long, and would have been relegated to graybar almost immediately, if our system wasn't still "broken".

(Seriously, it couldn't possibly take this long to "repair". Something else is going on.)

What do you imagine that might be?
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That is just... no... i'm not gonna respond to that trash.
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Eastern Atlantic has plenty of moisture to work with now...
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Miamihurricane can you post the latest satellite estimates?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting atmoaggie:
That troll wouldn't have lasted so long, and would have been relegated to graybar almost immediately, if our system wasn't still "broken".

(Seriously, it couldn't possibly take this long to "repair". Something else is going on.)


check your WU mail, dude...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting atmoaggie:
That troll wouldn't have lasted so long, and would have been relegated to graybar almost immediately, if our system wasn't still "broken".

(Seriously, it couldn't possibly take this long to "repair". Something else is going on.)

Agree...
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Can anyone guess which way Bret is moving right now?
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Certainly looks like an eye wants to pop out. It's probably not as impressive as it looks, but you have to watch out for these small systems. They can strengthen quickly.

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OK the post is gone guys! Back to lurking lol..i used to be a frequent poster but have since switched to lurk mode for the most part i'm sure some people remember my handle
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The convection seems more symmetrical...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.