Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey, extreme! It is good to see you posting here again. Where have you been hiding??


I've been busy and have just been lurking but I figured since were getting more into the season I should join into the discussion some lol

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree, interested to see what Recon finds. Good to see you back. It's been a while.


Good to be back!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Nuetral

Cmc, Nogaps, Hint at develop of tropical wave north of pr.

Gfs takes the wave into windwards as a TS

Euro is the leader with strong ts or hurricane in the bahamas heading NW to N.


The latest ECMWF shows no development at all.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24726
Recon Entering Bret right now... Decending
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting OceanSeaBreeze:


I wouldnt rule out the possiblity , but i dont think south florida will see a hurricane or a major hurricane this year.


EMCWF and the EURO is showing a storm around Florida July 28-29. The Pan Handle are is suppose to get hit according to the latest models on July 28-29. It goes through South Florida first though. This is the wave that came off Africa yesterday
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


19:12:30Z 28.283N 78.133W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,605 meters
(~ 5,266 feet) 1014.5 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg)


Gotcha. LOL.
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Wolftribe it was just uppped to 60 MPH and 998 MB
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting MississippiWx:
Anyone know when the hurricane hunters are supposed to arrive in Bret? Would be interesting to know what's going on right now.


19:12:30Z 28.283N 78.133W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,605 meters
(~ 5,266 feet) 1014.5 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg)
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Good to see that all of Recon's instruments are operating properly on this mission.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
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Quoting kshipre1:
just curious, how many people in here think Florida will get hit by a tropical storm or hurricane this year?
I do!
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Link

Eye?

Water Vapor has me a bit stump on this one. I know the feature is at the center of the storm. Storm is expanding and getting better organized. I am not so sure it is an eye at all. I say "possibly" but hard to tell with no other data to back it up. If it were a 70 MPH storm right now than I would be saying it is an "Eye"
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I was hearing of the high pressure that is dominating texas and oklahoma for the longest is suppose to move northeast and open a hole up for storms to eter the GOM and come from the carribean. can anyone help me with this because I think I mite be seeing it happen now?
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Dang cyberted...

You convinced me that is indeed an eye forming, so models got intensity worng then, what else might they be getting wrong?


Track? maybe a loopty loop and head back for CONUS and everybody being going nuts and jam up the blog
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not a REAL expert, but my comments.
Where did NHC do a 7 day genesis forecast? The public one is only 48 hours and they are still working in-house on a 5 day version.

In last years forecast verification report NHC actually had a slight over forecast bias for intensity.


I think you are right! My bad...it was Jeff Masters that said TCF was not expected in 7 days from Friday...I had confused the two. However I did find this from the NHC:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161145
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

...which the next day (around 35 hours later, TS formed)

Also, in the course of the season as they post their intensity update forcasts (on the cone) you will see that their expected intensity of storms is well below what it actually becomes (on average)...you will see what I mean.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nuetral

Cmc, Nogaps, Hint at develop of tropical wave north of pr.

Gfs takes the wave into windwards as a TS

Euro is the leader with strong ts or hurricane in the bahamas heading NW to N.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Radar seems to disagree with you. Repost of what Pat posted.


Dang cyberted...

You convinced me that is indeed an eye forming, so models got intensity worng then, what else might they be getting wrong?
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Quoting kshipre1:
just curious, how many people in here think Florida will get hit by a tropical storm or hurricane this year?
its impossible to say for sure. Given the fact that it's supposed to be an active and neutral year (ENSO-wise), Florida has a better shot at a landfall than in most years, but nothing is guaranteed.
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Quoting extreme236:
It could just be a trick, but I'm thinking Bret might spin up into a hurricane during the coming hours.
I agree, interested to see what Recon finds. Good to see you back. It's been a while.
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Quoting extreme236:
It could just be a trick, but I'm thinking Bret might spin up into a hurricane during the coming hours.


Hey, extreme! It is good to see you posting here again. Where have you been hiding??
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Is it just me or does Bret seem to be moving almost due NORTH
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Anyone know when the hurricane hunters are supposed to arrive in Bret? Would be interesting to know what's going on right now.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
That was either a simple paste-click "post" or a script.
script.

Quoting OceanSeaBreeze:


isnt this blog protected from any script?

no.

Quoting atmoaggie:
You sure learned a lot in the last day!

life long trolls are damn smart.
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It could just be a trick, but I'm thinking Bret might spin up into a hurricane during the coming hours.
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just curious, how many people in here think Florida will get hit by a tropical storm or hurricane this year?
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Recon Just outside of Bret.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Anyone knows what did the 12z ECMWF had in regard to the African waves? I recall that the 00z run had something tracking thru the NE Caribbean.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
According to radar, our eyes might not be fooling us. This could indeed be an eye.

Whoa, Bret really got going.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
According to radar, our eyes might not be fooling us. This could indeed be an eye.
If that is an eye emerging, some of the models were more than a few degrees off were strength is concerned...Looks a little like 1989,s Hurricane Jerry to me...I am in no way suggesting that Bret is a hurricane.
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IR is showing the "eye" feature and so it the Visible Sat. The nay sayers are stating that it isn't an eye but it is located towards the center of the storm and is a small system which means "Rapid" unexpected intensification and that it is 50-60 MPH right now; therefore, only 20-25 MPH from being a hurricane.

We have to remember that Arlene had an eye feature as well at 60 MPH.

Link
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interesting.... Wednesday as of now is looking sunny
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Quoting SQUAWK:

I have a picture of that, wanna see it?????? LOL


Ha!!!
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Than's not an eye forming. It is dry air trapped in the circulation (see Visible loop). And Bret is moving NE as forecaasted by the NHC. one last note the NHC uses all caps because they use military format. Navy, USCG and of course Air Force between other branches receive this information. They don't mean to insult no one, but I doubt they will change that format.


Radar seems to disagree with you. Repost of what Pat posted.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24726
441. 7544
Quoting Waltanater:
Cyberted is right. Looks like an eye to me.


yeap agree
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Quoting Waltanater:
Reposting...

It is also not suprising that the NHC said last Friday that TCF is not expected in the next 7 days, yet one did develop!

On another note, the fact that they almost always "under-predict" the intensity of storms makes me believe that the "predicting intensity" part of the forecasting process is also a partial factor on intial storm development. If they can nail this down, they can improve on their predictions overall.

Is there anyone out there that is a REAL expert on this that can elaborate on this for me?


Not a REAL expert, but my comments.
Where did NHC do a 7 day genesis forecast? The public one is only 48 hours and they are still working in-house on a 5 day version.

In last years forecast verification report NHC actually had a slight over forecast bias for intensity.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Than's not an eye forming. It is dry air trapped in the circulation (see Visible loop). And Bret is moving NE as forecaasted by the NHC. one last note the NHC uses all caps because they use military format. Navy, USCG and of course Air Force between other branches receive this information. They don't mean to insult no one, but I doubt they will change that format.


I haven't seen any reason to believe that's dry air being ingested. It's surrounded by convection on all sides. If it were dry air, it wouldn't be as symmetrical as it is now.
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Cyberted is right. Looks like an eye to me.
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Quoting presslord:


sometimes I wonder who I used to be.....

I have a picture of that, wanna see it?????? LOL
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According to radar, our eyes might not be fooling us. This could indeed be an eye.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24726
435. 7544
so fla getting somr rain from bret from melboune south
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Recon Getting Close, going to get Info Soon...

Tropical Storm Bret:
60 Mph
998 MB
NNE at 6 mph
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Than's not an eye forming. It is dry air trapped in the circulation (see Visible loop). And Bret is moving NE as forecaasted by the NHC. one last note the NHC uses all caps because they use military format. Navy, USCG and of course Air Force between other branches receive this information. They don't mean to insult no one, but I doubt they will change that format.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reposting...

It is also not suprising that the NHC said last Friday that TCF is not expected in the next 7 days, yet one did develop!

On another note, the fact that they almost always "under-predict" the intensity of storms makes me believe that the "predicting intensity" part of the forecasting process is also a partial factor on intial storm development. If they can nail this down, they can improve on their predictions overall.

Is there anyone out there that is a REAL expert on this that can elaborate on this for me?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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