Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting UKHWatcher:
Could one of you kind folk please post the link to the site where I can get the google earth .kmz for the Hurricane Hunter flights.
I forgot to save my 'temporary places' last night Doh

TIA!


http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/
Link
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Progressive its a small compact system, they arent in the Left core yet, theyre just outside of it.


I am aware of the wind profiles. I was more talking about the 1009 pressure.
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Quoting congaline:
If the low over NGM spins up into a depression would it have the potential to draw Brett on a more Westerly course?


The low over the Northern Gulf is on land. No chance of development. However, to answer your question, no. It would have no effect on Bret.
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Quoting keisa90:
I know it's not a tropical system, but has anyone looked at the cloud shot of the low over southern Louisiana? It almost looks like a tropical storm.
Yes, I'm in the eye right now..LOL. BTW, nice radar image sunlinepr, tks.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That run is yesterday and not a hurricane. The latest 12z ECMWF showed nothing.


I found what you are looking at

Link

look at 850 from same page (Atlantic View)
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Stupid Bret has wrapped dry air into Florida. I absolutely HATE when low pressure areas form off the east coast of Florida.
Lol......happens almost every time......;)
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Progressive its a small compact system, they arent in the Left core yet, theyre just outside of it.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
If the low over NGM spins up into a depression would it have the potential to draw Brett on a more Westerly course?
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I commented earlier about some heavier rains just north of Humble, TX moving into my area in a couple hours if the storms didn't dissipate. Well, it looks like they dissipated just outside of the Beltway. :( Oh well.
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I know all the focus is on Bret, but the EPAC's been kind of active for a year not expected to be too active... They've all hit hurricane status and Dora looks to be a big one.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody else saw this?


Request for Comments - Proposed Modification to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Wow, I wouldn't mind it to be honest.
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Good afternoon folks! So is Brett getting ready to split apart?
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Stupid Bret has wrapped dry air into Florida. I absolutely HATE when low pressure areas form off the east coast of Florida.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Ya, they missed the genesis of Bret within the 48 hour window, but I don't think there is a correlation between intensity forecasts and genesis forecasts.

Starting tomorrow they get an additional tool:

1624. DBNET - System vp-ncosrv. (Cooke, NCO). The DBNet software on vp-ncosrv is being modified to begin storing and sending HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) created Tropical Cyclone Genesis guidance from the ECMWF model to the NHC (National Hurricane Center).

Awesome!
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19:22:30Z 28.200N 77.500W 843.5 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,555 meters
(~ 5,102 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg)
37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph)

Seriously doubt this is a hurricane, this reading is just left of the center.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That run is yesterday and not a hurricane. The latest 12z ECMWF showed nothing.


I am using 850mb Vort SLP but it might be from yesterday

Your image is 500 MB. Look at your 850 MB and tell me if it still has nothing.
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Do I see an eye forming around 28.1N/77.1W ?
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recon Entering The "Eyewall"/ Core of Bret.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Recon digging into Bret now... Just hit the Tropical Storm Force Wind Radius
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting hydrus:
If Ma-on does not turn soon, landfall is imminent.


I was thinking the same thing. He looks like he's on a collision course with Japan. Hard to stop a train. LOL.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That run is yesterday and not a hurricane. The latest 12z ECMWF showed nothing.


That's to be expected this far in advance. I'd be shocked if it kept the system on there for the next 10 days. Lol. I'd expect it to go back and forth on development.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
If Ma-on does not turn soon, landfall is imminent.
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Closing in...

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Anybody else saw this?


Request for Comments - Proposed Modification to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
Quoting wolftribe2009:


actually the EURO was showing the system forming in the northern lesser antils at 144 hours. Than it moves north of Puerto Rico and passes along the eastern bahamas before the hours run out on the model.

The ECMWF is the one having a storm hitting S.Florida and than re-curving in the Gulf to hit the Pan Handle. Someone stated earlier that intensity forecast was showing a CAT 1 in the Southern Gulf on July 27
link please to that info
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2011
Time: 19:22:30Z
Coordinates: 28.2N 77.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.5 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,555 meters (~ 5,102 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.2 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 5 at 37 knots (From the N at ~ 42.5 mph)
Air Temp: 16.4C (~ 61.5F)
Dew Pt: 13.0C (~ 55.4F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)


Lookin good
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Quoting presslord:


sometimes I wonder who I used to be.....


+1
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Quoting neutralenso:

wait so the euro is showing a ts hitting south florida then moving into the gulf and curving into the panhandle as a tropical storm?? WOW


actually the EURO was showing the system forming in the northern lesser antils at 144 hours. Than it moves north of Puerto Rico and passes along the eastern bahamas before the hours run out on the model.

The ECMWF is the one having a storm hitting S.Florida and than re-curving in the Gulf to hit the Pan Handle. Someone stated earlier that intensity forecast was showing a CAT 1 in the Southern Gulf on July 27
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From what I see on the NASA satellite images that update about every 10 minutes or so it does look kind of like an eye feature.
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.
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499. 7544
i think bret is taking a wobble
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


ECMWF 240 Hours

Link


That run is yesterday and not a hurricane. The latest 12z ECMWF showed nothing.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
SFMR winds up to 37 knots and pressure down to 1009.2mb as they approach the circulation.

192230 2812N 07730W 8435 01555 0092 164 130 005037 038 037 004 00
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Could one of you kind folk please post the link to the site where I can get the google earth .kmz for the Hurricane Hunter flights.
I forgot to save my 'temporary places' last night Doh

TIA!
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Afternoon all. Just getting a quick chance to peek in.... wanted to report that we've had no rain here in New Providence to speak of since this morning. With periods of sun and cloud, today has seemed like a rather ordinary summer day....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
Dynamic model forecasts for the MJO still seem to think the MJO will come back to our basin by late July/August.
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Forget my dry air comment I take it back. This storm is exploding not rapid intensification Sudden intensification. This is just a tase of what's to come this year.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The latest ECMWF shows no development at all.


ECMWF 240 Hours

Link
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Not saying he will, but if Bret keeps at it's Current Direction (NNE) it will just scrape Cape Hatteras. Just something to note...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
I know it's not a tropical system, but has anyone looked at the cloud shot of the low over southern Louisiana? It almost looks like a tropical storm.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Wolftribe it was just uppped to 60 MPH and 998 MB


Where you getting that information? NOAA still has 50 MPH. I seem to be behind all the time since I wait for NOAA to post.
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Welcome back extreme for another busy few months!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
Quoting Waltanater:


I think you are right! My bad...it was Jeff Masters that said TCF was not expected in 7 days from Friday...I had confused the two. However I did find this from the NHC:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161145
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

...which the next day (around 35 hours later, TS formed)

Also, in the course of the season as they post their intensity update forcasts (on the cone) you will see that their expected intensity of storms is well below what it actually becomes (on average)...you will see what I mean.


Ya, they missed the genesis of Bret within the 48 hour window, but I don't think there is a correlation between intensity forecasts and genesis forecasts.

Starting tomorrow they get an additional tool:

1624. DBNET - System vp-ncosrv. (Cooke, NCO). The DBNet software on vp-ncosrv is being modified to begin storing and sending HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) created Tropical Cyclone Genesis guidance from the ECMWF model to the NHC (National Hurricane Center).

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Quoting OceanSeaBreeze:


As a lurker and unbias viewer,

i believe that with the current system you can report, minimize and hide comments for any comment,

so lets say that you dont like me for some reason , and i dont do anything wrong, my posts are good but you dont like me... so you report and flag and hide my posts and i become placed in the below average filter and nobody see's my posts.

see the flaw?
I only flag posts if they are inflamatory. If I do not like someone, either their rant, repeated postings, I put the user on ignore. I can't be bothered with them. Then I never see them, but they don't get reported because I don't like them. That is my personal feeling, nothing illegal.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey, extreme! It is good to see you posting here again. Where have you been hiding??


I've been busy and have just been lurking but I figured since were getting more into the season I should join into the discussion some lol

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree, interested to see what Recon finds. Good to see you back. It's been a while.


Good to be back!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.