Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Bret has an eye, this is crazy stuff...
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting islander101010:
personally i like it dry like this the evenings are nice long time florida resident


Yeah well, its abnormal ,terrible for our Climate, especially after being in a drought for so long. We don't need more dry days, this system completely through off the wet pattern and it will take several days to recover back to normal. So don't be too happy about it.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
i think by the time recon is dome we may very well have a 65-70 MPH TS Bret maybe even a hurricane bret by later tonight if this rate of intensification continues, now i have a question since the storm is stronger would it be pulled out to sea quicker




Same
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm not sure what's so funny, Ma-On doesn't look too impressive either lol


Ma-On is 10x the size of Bret.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like bret is nearing Hurricane status
They do that a lot when pulling out here... ref. Hurricane Noel... lol

I'm gone again... back later...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
I'd say Bret is a strong 70 mph TS right now.
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Dynamic

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Quoting Skyepony:
Recon found center ~28.1N 77.1W
if that is the correct center it has stalled again with a drift motion
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Actually, the surface winds don't match up to the flight speeds.

A bit suspect?
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First unlabeled 18Z Statistical Pkg is in



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Wouldn't be surprised to see some cat 1 winds, in a different quadrant.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting MississippiWx:
Here is something funny...

Ma-On:



Bret:



I'm not sure what's so funny, Ma-On doesn't look too impressive either lol
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i think by the time recon is dome we may very well have a 65-70 MPH TS Bret maybe even a hurricane bret by later tonight if this rate of intensification continues, now i have a question since the storm is stronger would it be pulled out to sea quicker
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Time: 19:27:30Z
Coordinates: 28.1333N 77.1833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.9 mb (~ 24.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,505 meters (~ 4,938 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1000.1 mb (~ 29.53 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 5° at 38 knots (From the N at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 18.9°C (~ 66.0°F)
Dew Pt: 17.1°C (~ 62.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 59 knots (~ 67.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Here is something funny...

Ma-On:



Bret:

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565. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon found center ~28.1N 77.1W
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
Quoting kwgirl:
Why would they be doing this? Does it really matter what you call it as long as you know that a certain designation means a certain wind speed?
Same basic reason for updating the tornado scale [Fujita?] to EF.... increased accuracy with the description.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
66.7 MPH wind unconaminated, with low rainfall rate too.. very promising...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Now here is a good look at

African wave
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02L/H/B/C1
MARK
28.25N/76.98W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Its a micro-cyclone...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody else saw this?


Request for Comments - Proposed Modification to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale



Seems a rather minor tweak, no harm in it, really.

At first when seeing the link, I thought they were about to use an 'Enhanced' SSHWS mirroring the change brought about to the Fujita Scale.

The readings for Bret with 996mb/70mph winds are a bit of a shift from earlier. They are amongst some readings flagged as rain-affected and some pressure readings that weren't picked up, but as there's more than one, should be okay.

VDM'll clarify anyhow.

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personally i like it dry like this the evenings are nice long time florida resident
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This little sucker is packing a punch, Bret the baby devil.
Recon just took a pass through the "Eye"

So far Recon findings...
996 MB
65 to 70 MPH
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
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Bret is currently taking advantage of a light shear environment and extremely warm sea surface temps. Bret could intensify quickly the rest of the day.



Shear Map reveals only 5kts over Bret:

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Quoting MrstormX:


Teddy uncontaminated?


Correct.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting pass made by Recon...

Some nice towers are going up on the southern portion of the COC.


Was just about to post a picture of that. Some quick intensification.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Very Compact little demon
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This was just recorded.
59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph)

996.5 mb
(~ 29.43 inHg)


Teddy uncontaminated?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
02L/H/B/C1
MARK
28.25N/76.98W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
looks like bret is nearing Hurricane status
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996 MB READING
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
996.5 mb
(~ 29.43 inHg) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph)

I tell ya, Bret has really overfilled me with crow, ackkk....
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Holy crap, an eye-feature.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Anyone know what MSLP stands for?

I don't think Bret will intensify. In fact it should decrease a bit in the next 12 hours.
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The only change there is to the Scale is that
130 is cat. 4 now, and 157 is Cat.5 instead of 156, non significant changes...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Interesting pass made by Recon...

Some nice towers are going up on the southern portion of the COC.
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.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
This was just recorded.
59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph)

996.5 mb
(~ 29.43 inHg)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Maximum SFMR winds of 61 knots.

192600 2809N 07717W 8440 01517 //// +134 //// 355041 047 061 032 05

Minimum pressure is 996mb.

192900 2807N 07706W 8430 01472 9965 +209 +153 281006 008 017 001 03


Looks like our belief in an eye-feature is true. Might have Hurricane Bret before upper level conditions become hostile.
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XX/AOI/XL
MARK
9.9N/28.13W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
04E/TD/D/CX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting PcolaDan:


http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/
Link


Many thanks!
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Maximum SFMR winds are 61 knots.

192600 2809N 07717W 8440 01517 //// 134 //// 355041 047 061 032 05

Minimum pressure is 996.5mb.

192900 2807N 07706W 8430 01472 9965 209 153 281006 008 017 001 03
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
19:22:30Z 28.200N 77.500W 843.5 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,555 meters
(~ 5,102 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg)
37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph)

Seriously doubt this is a hurricane, this reading is just left of the center.

Well, Bret is small, and it's left side is its weak side, so the strongest winds should be in the N-NE Part of Bret. At least that's what I think.
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You make a point progressive...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody else saw this?


Request for Comments - Proposed Modification to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Why would they be doing this? Does it really matter what you call it as long as you know that a certain designation means a certain wind speed?
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what is this that computer models form a tropical storm and moves it towards south florida towards the end of the month ???????? i have been looking at the models and i see nothing
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Quoting UKHWatcher:
Could one of you kind folk please post the link to the site where I can get the google earth .kmz for the Hurricane Hunter flights.
I forgot to save my 'temporary places' last night Doh

TIA!


http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/
Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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