Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WxLogic:


Which it would appear that CMC is being given the benefit of the doubt from what I can see.


Other models have been on/off development in that area. ECMWF Ensemble Mean shows lower pressures in that area in a week.


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1480. hcubed
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I never heard of this. Estimates vary but more than 1 meter in the following decades is a given and maybe more, due to ice melt and thermal expansion.


All depends on who you're listening to.

For example, NASA climate researcher James Hansen warned that sea levels could rise by five meters in the next 90 years, or nine times higher than the maximum cited in the last IPCC report. He insists that he has found indications that sea levels in the future could rise by as much as five centimeters per year (current satellite measurements have it at 3 millimeters per year).


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1479. Grothar
There is an upper level low above Hispanola just to the left of all the convection. Models are not doing much with this yet. However, the wave around 31W will be monitored because conditions will improve for some development

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Quoting DoubleAction:
Looks like the african wave will be our next storm. Has high pressure holding it down so the track should bring it towards the Antilles. After that the ridge does weaken but not significantly so anything could happen, east coast to GOM will need to watch out for this one in the next week. Tropics are starting to heat up!


Looks less impressive than earlier.
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1477. hydrus
Quoting yonzabam:


The 'Little Ice Age'
Did the Maunder Minimum cause the Little Ice Age.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22624
Looks like the african wave will be our next storm. Has high pressure holding it down so the track should bring it towards the Antilles. After that the ridge does weaken but not significantly so anything could happen, east coast to GOM will need to watch out for this one in the next week. Tropics are starting to heat up!
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Good Morning. I see the Blog margins are out of whack again.......... :)
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

On that particular graph, what do you feel is responsible for that dip around 1750? I'm very eager to hear your thoughts on that...

From the article

According to this model, the rise after about 1000 AD is due to the warm medieval temperatures and the stable sea level after 1400 AD is a consequence of the cooler “Little Ice Age” period. Then follows a steep rise associated with modern global warming. Modern tide gauge and satellite measurements indicate that sea level rise has accelerated further within the 20th Century.

Reference: Kemp et al., Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia, PNAS 2011.

Further info on sea level: see the PIK sea level pages.

Best would be you read the entire article
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

On that particular graph, what do you feel is responsible for that dip around 1750? I'm very eager to hear your thoughts on that...


The 'Little Ice Age'
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Quoting blsealevel:


Sometimes the elders know what will work out of necessity, I never drank just straight coconut water before but i can see you would not want to over do it.

I'm from Barbados and coconut water is very refreshing. Drinking it straight from the shell is fine or chilled and you can drink as much as you want, the only thing is you would urinate frequently which is good for the bladder. I've never had store bought coconut water and i don't think i would either.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

I'm glad you didn't. At one point I was one of those gullible enough to believe everything I saw and read. And this was before the dawning of the Internet.

Nothing's a given with weather and climate. The ice has experienced much less volume numerous times in the past couple centuries without the sea levels rises and falls significant enough to warrant attention.

Sea level rise acceleration


The graph shows how sea level changed over the past 2000 years. There are four phases:

Stable sea level from 200 BC until 1000 AD
A 400-year rise by about 6 cm per century up to 1400 AD
Another stable period from 1400 AD up to the late 19th C
A rapid rise by about 20 cm since.
RC
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1463. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Preliminary hazards assessment indicating possible Northern Carribean development week1.




Which it would appear that CMC is being given the benefit of the doubt from what I can see.
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1462. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
@ 1454:

So now there are predicting a one meter rise of global ocean levels. What ever happened to 2 meters they've been projecting for the past decade or so?

I never heard of this. Estimates vary but more than 1 meter in the following decades is a given and maybe more, due to ice melt and thermal expansion.
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Preliminary hazards assessment indicating possible Northern Carribean development week1.


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Time running out for climate action: report

The Federal Government's Climate Commission has warned the window for limiting future and costly climate change is rapidly closing.

It warns global warming could cause global sea levels to rise up to one metre by the end of the century, higher than previously thought.

"We have exactly eight years and seven months to meet our target of minus 5 per cent, which is a very ambitious target."

To minimise the risk, the commission says Australia must decarbonise its economy and move to clean energy sources by 2050.

That means carbon emissions must peak in the next few years and then strongly decline.

And while the report acknowledges the science is advancing strongly, it notes there are still questions in the public arena. ABC
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pretty much in the same spot is it following its schedule? i think he missed his flight
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1450. IKE

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1449. MahFL
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


... gorgeous oaks trees downed...just irks me.


That's just nature pruning out dead/weak wood....it's normal.
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having problems due to upwelling?
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1447. pottery
Good morning.
Looking to see if we can expect some rain here at 11n 61w.
Not looking too hopeful .....

No real rain for over a week, which is quite strange for mid/late July.
Last stuff passed north of us again.
It's been a Strange Season, so far.
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brett is a poor achiever expect the unexpected in 2011
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Heat indices were even higher yesterday in many places. Here are a few from Iowa:

KNOXVILLE 131
NEWTON 129
ATLANTIC 126
COUNCIL BLUFFS 126

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5. html

And, as has been stated, it's all spreading eastward over the next several days...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Thanks Cotillion...I think I did it that way, lol!

Aren't you in Europe or I am mistaken?


I am.
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It's D-MIN as seen on Bret.
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Thanks Cotillion...I think I did it that way, lol!

Aren't you in Europe or I am mistaken?
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Oh good lord, how do you send an email on here???


Right at the top of the screen should be a mini toolbar. One of the options is Mail. Click that, then go onto 'Compose'.
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Oh good lord, how do you send an email on here???
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Gotta go save the world again....Catch you good people later!!
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This is one storm in much need of a morning cup of coffee.

A bit of an unseen development to form in the first place, but at its current rate, it might disappear just as fast.

I suspect the main storms are in Europe right now. Just financial, as opposed to meteorological.
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There is one other person, from S. Alabama, who is very gentleman-like on here too.
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Anyway, I'm going to bed. Good night guys. Excellent discussion here, as was previously noted.

Red, I don't see you here very often, and I'll obviously forget your name. You mentioned exchanging emails. Shoot me a WU message telling me yours. Failing that, just message me on here anytime you like. You probably stand a better chance of remembering my name than I do yours. :P
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Thanks Kori.....but you will find that I am the probably the least offendable person you have ever associated with.......is offendable a word??

No Prob!!


Not addressed to me but I have to agree. I usually lurk when I have time and yes, you are one of the least offendable gentlemen!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
See...I love this site late at night. Folks seem so much nicer/cooler.

Haha, I remember last year with my appendicitis, sitting here online talking, never knowing that was what was happening! Just rattled on in pain!

Good group of people here at night!


Usually less Drama and Trolling on night shift!!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Thanks Kori.....but you will find that I am the probably the least offendable person you have ever associated with.......is offendable a word??

No Prob!!


It most certainly is not, but I'll overlook it. :P

As RedStick said, it's a sick fascination. Odd and enigmatic, but ever present.
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See...I love this site late at night. Folks seem so much nicer/cooler.

Haha, I remember last year with my appendicitis, sitting here online talking, never knowing that was what was happening! Just rattled on in pain!

Good group of people here at night!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
btw Ron, I hadn't realized you lost friends to Ivan. My sincerest apologies then, if my comment about being inside the hurricane offended you. You know I never would intentionally.


Thanks Kori.....but you will find that I am the probably the least offendable person you have ever associated with.......is offendable a word??

No Prob!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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