Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

Share this Blog
0
+

Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 631 - 581

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

So according to the recon Bret is intensifying and almost a hurricane correct?.Don't leave me in the dark now...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17808
Latest RGB Shows eye cleared out.
Click Here To See Eye
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Can someone please give me a link to recon data? Can't find it anywhere on the half dozen websites I use. Better yet just give me any link that has a BUNCH of links :-)

Link
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
627. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Can someone please give me a link to recon data? Can't find it anywhere on the half dozen websites I use. Better yet just give me any link that has a BUNCH of links :-)


recon data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What's funny is the "eyewall" came literally out of nowhere. One hour, there was no convection in the area, and the next hour, there was an eyewall. The area of sinking air that we are calling the "eye" appeared nearly instantaneously, probably due to the fact that the system is already very dry and shallow to begin with.

I wouldn't expect the feature to last very long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seems like the disturbed weather just south of La. is getting some organization. Semblance of rotation, high level outflow and some streamers moving up from the south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
623. Skyepony (Mod)
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.

Splash Location: 27.94N 76.86W
Splash Time: 19:40Z

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1004mb (29.65 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 23.7°C (74.7°F) 210° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)
1000mb 37m (121 ft) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 210° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)
925mb 719m (2,359 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 230° (from the SW) 58 knots (67 mph)
850mb 1,452m (4,764 ft) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 16.6°C (61.9°F) 230° (from the SW) 61 knots (70 mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Was the lowest pressure in the eye-feature?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting Cotillion:


PDO- maybe in motion, who knows. It will have changed things.

For the East Pacific though, it's hard to say how much the initial 2 to 3 months is an indicator of the future. Last year, we had Darby by late June. Ahead of this year.

July, August, September, October, November had a gigantic three storms, Estelle to Frank.

Now, last year had a strong La Nina and we do not this year. Last year could've had a bit of reverse 1997 East Pacific style.

This is a bit of new territory for the EPac, we've probably not had sufficient exposure to how the basin acts under PDO- conditions.


I never even noticed that, it is a lot like 1997 in the Atlantic. EPAC does peak a lot earlier, July to September.

I've also noticed EVERY season since 1995 was either well below average or just at average, kind of like how the Atlantic was in the 70s-80s-early 90s. Before that the EPAC was very active every season, like the Atlantic is in the current period.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is an intriguing visible satellite presentation with Bret this afternoon. The very small size of Bret must be aiding in core development, despite fairly shallow convection. According to recon, pressures continue to fall slowly, now down to 998mb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Florida may never recover, since Bret formed throwing in dry air on the back side onto FL, might never return to the wet season, that would be a nightmare
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can someone please give me a link to recon data? Can't find it anywhere on the half dozen websites I use. Better yet just give me any link that has a BUNCH of links :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
VDM has it at 60knots with a 998mb pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh, maximum flight level is 53kts, but surface is 60kts?

That's peculiar.

and lol - someone on board has itchy fingers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bret is so compact that if you go 50 miles out theres no strong winds.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bret is currently taking advantage of a light shear environment and extremely warm sea surface temps. Bret could intensify quickly the rest of the day.



Shear Map reveals only 5kts over Bret:

So we could have an hurricane by 1100pm bulletin then.


We could have a hurricane before the hunters leave if it keeps strengthening. We'll see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
613. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NW (311°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT

OOOPPPPS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah well, its abnormal ,terrible for our Climate, especially after being in a drought for so long. We don't need more dry days, this system completely through off the wet pattern and it will take several days to recover back to normal. So don't be too happy about it.


LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds up to 70mph and pressure down to 998mb on vortex message.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NW (311°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting MrstormX:
Eye is probably a short lived feature, my guess 6-12 hours before it is clouded over.
LOL, I posted a satellite pic right after your post with the eye obscured.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
bretts a fish just trying to save face by intensifying more likely he has started moving which lowers the ul wind speed


Just like this mornings hour long discussion. Bret is not a fish. The COC went directly over several islands of the Bahamas last night and this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Eye is probably a short lived feature, my guess 6-12 hours before it is clouded over.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bret is currently taking advantage of a light shear environment and extremely warm sea surface temps. Bret could intensify quickly the rest of the day.



Shear Map reveals only 5kts over Bret:

So we could have an hurricane by 1100pm bulletin then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah, I noticed that as well. I was intrigue and did some research.

Named storms before July's end in the EPAC:
2010: 4
2009: 4
2008: 7
2007: 5
2006: 6
2005: 5
2004: 4
2003: 6
2002: 5
2001: 5
2000: 5

So if this one has 4 before July is over, it's actually kind of on the low end compared to recent years.. But all of them becoming hurricanes is pretty noteworthy. And 4 out of 5 invests got a name too.


PDO- maybe in motion, who knows. It will have changed things.

For the East Pacific though, it's hard to say how much the initial 2 to 3 months is an indicator of the future. Last year, we had Darby by late June. Ahead of this year.

July, August, September, October, November had a gigantic three storms, Estelle to Frank.

Now, last year had a strong La Nina and we do not this year. Last year could've had a bit of reverse Atlantic 1997 East Pacific style.

This is a bit of new territory for the EPac, we've probably not had sufficient exposure to how the basin acts under PDO- conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


So what makes a hurricane go through a high pressure area?

I thought they were steered away from high pressure.


It's not, it's right in between two High pressure systems. They follow the clockwise flow around high pressure systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Eye is tight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bret is currently taking advantage of a light shear environment and extremely warm sea surface temps. Bret could intensify quickly the rest of the day.



Shear Map reveals only 5kts over Bret:



That is looking more and more like an eye
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


So what makes a hurricane go through a high pressure area?

I thought they were steered away from high pressure.


There is a weakness between the two highs

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah well, its abnormal ,terrible for our Climate, especially after being in a drought for so long. We don't need more dry days, this system completely through off the wet pattern and it will take several days to recover back to normal. So don't be too happy about it.


LMAO,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
02L/H/B/C1
MARK
28.25N/76.98W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56023
Quoting extreme236:
I know all the focus is on Bret, but the EPAC's been kind of active for a year not expected to be too active... They've all hit hurricane status and Dora looks to be a big one.


Yeah, I noticed that as well. I was intrigue and did some research.

Named storms before July's end in the EPAC:
2010: 4
2009: 4
2008: 7
2007: 5
2006: 6
2005: 5
2004: 4
2003: 6
2002: 5
2001: 5
2000: 5

So if this one has 4 before July is over, it's actually kind of on the low end compared to recent years.. But all of them becoming hurricanes is pretty noteworthy. And 4 out of 5 invests got a name too.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Whats indicative of an eye however is the fact as recon passed through the center winds became light where the pressures where the lowest. What we're seeing on visible is indeed Bret's eye.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
594. BDAwx
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 19:29:30Z
Coordinates: 28.1333N 77.0667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,477 meters (~ 4,846 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.2 mb (~ 29.45 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 190° at 4 knots (From the S at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 20.4°C (~ 68.7°F)
Dew Pt: 14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots* (~ 20.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)

Probably the COC


Is that temperature at the surface? that is pretty chilly if it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS Bret is using it's small size and spinning up some nice winds in a very small area. These are the best kind of systems because impact is minimal but they never obey official predictions. Models have big problems with smaller scale features.

If Bret sticks around for 48hours is there a chance of the ridges bridging?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
First unlabeled 18Z Statistical Pkg is in





So what makes a hurricane go through a high pressure area?

I thought they were steered away from high pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
bretts a fish


Anytime watches and warnings are issued for a storm it automatically can not be a "fish storm" in my opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gulf getting very warm..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon did a loop of the eye, gotta be pretty unexpected for them just as it is us.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Bret intensifying, not a threat to land 7/18/11

Enjoy all! Short but good read.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Time: 19:29:30Z
Coordinates: 28.1333N 77.0667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,477 meters (~ 4,846 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.2 mb (~ 29.45 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 190° at 4 knots (From the S at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 20.4°C (~ 68.7°F)
Dew Pt: 14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots* (~ 20.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)

Probably the COC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
bretts a fish just trying to save face by intensifying more likely he has started moving which lowers the ul wind speed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
65 Mph readings 996 MB, and theyre just on the West side... LOL, wondering what the NE Quadrant.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Cotillion:
Actually, the surface winds don't match up to the flight speeds.

A bit suspect?


To me, yes. More like 50 kt surface winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ma-On is 10x the size of Bret.


Alright I see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bret has an eye, this is crazy stuff...
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438

Viewing: 631 - 581

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron