Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

Share this Blog
0
+

Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 781 - 731

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

781. Patrap
9:35 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
TDWR High Definition Radar
West Palm Beach, Base Reflectivity 0.60 Degree Elevation Range 225 NM

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
780. washingtonian115
9:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting tatoprweather:
I understand everybody's attention is on Bret but, Is there someone looking to the wave aproaching 30W. Any information about that one? I know is far away but...anything?
Yes some of the models develope it or at least show a low pressure system.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
779. RitaEvac
9:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
North and Central Florida is burning up and drying up now
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9645
777. WeatherfanPR
9:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting tatoprweather:
I understand everybody's attention is on Bret but, Is there someone looking to the wave aproaching 30W. Any information about that one? I know is far away but...anything?


too early to tell but some models are hinting a possibility of some type of development.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
775. Tazmanian
9:32 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
still dont see this going out too sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
774. HurricaneDean07
9:30 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Bret appears to be wanting to organize some more, the northern extension is now pulling into the center.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
773. tatoprweather
9:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
I understand everybody's attention is on Bret but, Is there someone looking to the wave aproaching 30W. Any information about that one? I know is far away but...anything?
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
772. washingtonian115
9:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting mossyhead:
Looks like Doc may be wrong.
Who knows.It's Bret's decision and the envierment's.....not ours...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
771. Tazmanian
9:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
what do the gfs show
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
770. DocNDswamp
9:28 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
#746
Quoting EtexJC:


I asked that about 20 hours ago, and also got no response..


Thought we touched on this earlier -

No, it's a weak low that will not develop tropically, although did have a discernible wind shift from N to S as passed my area in SE LA... dropped 5.12" in my cocorahs gauge, most of it in about 2 hrs period causing flash flooding over our area...

But yes, the weak low and shwrs / tstms are moving west into E TX, should enhance rain chances esp tomorrow...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
769. mossyhead
9:27 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
there will be probably 20 storms this year all aorund florida but none will affect florida either wind sheer, dry air, african dust or some trough will be them from florida like what happens every year and we need rain bad
It does not happen every year.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
768. mossyhead
9:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Bret is only 10mph shy of being a hurricane.And the NHC still anticipates some mopre intensification through at least tuesday into wensday.Wouldn't surprise me though.
Looks like Doc may be wrong.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
767. washingtonian115
9:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
I sent Dr.Nabb some crow today.I sent him Well done with A1 sauce.He said it was very delightful.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
766. OracleDeAtlantis
9:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.

This is a very good lesson to remember this season, especially considering its "nuclear" potential.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
764. mossyhead
9:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
bret just another fish storm florida always seems to shear storms away
sO I guess Andrew, Charley, Francis, Jeannie, Ivan, and Wilma did not hit Florida.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
763. Tazmanian
9:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
59. NEVERKNOW 2:20 PM PDT on July 18, 2011 Hide this comment.
no need to talk about bret anymore it wont bother anyone


reported and poofed bye
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
761. washingtonian115
9:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
no need to talk about bret anymore it wont bother anyone
But it's something to track for us tropics fans.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
760. Patrap
9:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
758. Patrap
9:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
757. HurricaneDean07
9:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Bret about to deal with DMIN, what will happen, we dunno... so far so good...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
756. washingtonian115
9:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting neutralenso:
guys think about this. the euro gfs canadian all show something at the very most a low pressure anywhere from the windward islands to north of puerto rico to the bahamas to the gulf of mexico. this could mean before july ends we could get another name..
Yes.That would be Cindy.Don however could be trouble...(Now I know it's in the future but I got Igor right last year.)
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
754. Patrap
9:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
TS Bret,the Padawan of 2011

Patience I say,to the Food court we go
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
753. CybrTeddy
9:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Not bad.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
752. Patrap
9:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
311 PM CDT Monday Jul 18 2011


Discussion...
overall thunderstorms and rain coverage has been widely scattered over southeast Texas. A weak
surface trough stretches from klch back to klfk with stronger storms
along it. Other scattered activity continues to develop and dissipate SW
of the Houston area along the sea breeze. GOES sounder and GPS met
precipitation water show about 2-2.3 inches of precipitable water over the region which
is more than enough moisture to support thunderstorms and rain. Surface trough and any
outflow seem to be the main forcing mechanisms which has led to
widely scattered coverage. Instability is still weak which has not been
able to support stronger storms except for where forcing seems to
be stronger along the surface trough. Upper level ridge over the c
plains seems to be far enough away not to suppress any activity
for now. A weak disturbance over S la with quite a bit of thunderstorms and rain
should move towards the area tomorrow.


Forecast for tomorrow will keep 40/50 probability of precipitation mainly due to the scattered
nature of convection. There should be better support for thunderstorms and rain
tomorrow with a weak disturbance over the area and precipitation water
values around 2.1-2.3 inches. Main hazards if any will be gusty
winds and brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning. The
upper level ridge should also weaken quite a bit on Tuesday which will
keep any subsidence out of the area.


Rain chances decrease Wednesday through Friday but will still keep 20/30
probability of precipitation mentioned. The ridge basically becomes elongated across the
central US. Another weak disturbance is expected to develop in the
NE Gulf Wednesday and then move along the coast Thu/Fri. The European model (ecmwf)/GFS
seem to be shearing out the vorticity more so than before. The
later hours of the NAM show more organized upper level support for
thunderstorms and rain on Thursday. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in how much thunderstorms and rain
coverage will be expected. Precipitation water values hang around 2
inches through Thursday and then begin to decrease to around 1.5-1.8
inches Friday through the weekend. Will mention the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms and rain Friday/Sat but really not seeing the atmosphere capable of
support that much activity. Probability of precipitation were removed for early next week
as the upper level ridge looks to re-establish itself over the
plains and S rockies.


Temperature forecast will show a gradual increase in maximum temperatures
for the next 7 days. Will keep middle 90s through Wednesday and then
increase to middle/upper 90s for the end of the week. As probability of precipitation
decrease...will increase maximum temperatures in the upper 90s and near 100
for inland areas. Min temperatures will be the middle/upper 70s but may be
closer to 80 Friday/Sat as low level winds are expected to be
stronger.


39
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
751. neutralenso
9:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
guys think about this. the euro gfs canadian all show something at the very most a low pressure anywhere from the windward islands to north of puerto rico to the bahamas to the gulf of mexico. this could mean before july ends we could get another name..
Member Since: July 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
750. Skyepony (Mod)
Temp diff is one less, probably due to the day heating. Maybe a few hours before we see more deepening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 18
Location: 28.3°N 77.0°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: NNE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
wow!! up to 65 mph!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
Bert still looks to be becoming better organized. I think it will push to hurricane status tonight, possibly as late as tomorrow morning.
Havn't seen you in a while.I agree with your thinking.These small systems can either die off quickly or intesiry quickly.Looks like Bret is taking the high road(for now).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
747. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon just found 997.2 mb (~ 29.45 inHg), through center ~28.250N 76.950W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting breeezee:
is there any chance of the low over La turning tropical ,then continuing west and maybe bringing some moisture to tx,because its grown in coverage since this mourning


I asked that about 20 hours ago, and also got no response..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bert still looks to be becoming better organized. I think it will push to hurricane status tonight, possibly as late as tomorrow morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, that was an interesting few hours. Gonna be even more interesting to see if Bret can reach hurricane status tonight during the night shift. Out until then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bret is only 10mph shy of being a hurricane.And the NHC still anticipates some mopre intensification through at least tuesday into wensday.Wouldn't surprise me though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Bret
Statistical/Simple Models
(CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 182034
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

DORA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MODEST NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE LARGE CURVED
BAND THAT NOW WRAPS ALMOST THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.5/35
KT AND T2.0/30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE
T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1610Z INDICATED A COUPLE
OF 40-KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN A LARGE FIELD OF 34-KT WINDS...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. DORA HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT
THIS MEAN MOTION AS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND
THE MEAN CENTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE
CYCLONE TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DORA IS STEERED BY THE LARGE AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY ERODE LIKE THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. AS A RESULT...THE CENTER OF
DORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE
WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LAST OF MULTIPLE
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAS MERGED INTO THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS DORA PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
WATER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH
72-84 HOURS...AFTER WHICH RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE 1610Z ASCAT OVERPASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 10.7N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 11.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 11.9N 97.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 13.0N 100.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 14.3N 102.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.0N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 18.7N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
740. Skyepony (Mod)
They did get another pass in before 5..Looks like surface winds are the same.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice little down pour here in West Palm Beach....much needed. Thanks Bret.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A RAGGED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION HAD TAKEN PLACE.
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. USING A BLEND OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND
DROPSONDE WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT
55 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO BRET HAS A NARROW WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE REACHING A LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND IT COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY
EARLY TOMORROW OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...IVCN.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF AROUND 030/6.
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. BRET SHOULD BE
STEERED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN...AND SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 28.3N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 29.2N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 30.4N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 31.5N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 35.5N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT22 KNHC 182054
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 77.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 77.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.4N 75.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.5N 74.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 77.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure remains at 997mb.

204800 2817N 07657W 8412 01496 9972 +207 +140 241009 012 013 000 03

Winds much weaker in northeastern eyewall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting Seflhurricane:
what going on is everyone hitting the f-5 button
Nope.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
If flight level winds were 62kt on the SE side then on the NE they should probably support about a 60kt intensity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
a friend from Puerto Rico had a very close encounter with a lightning bolt. It's a miracle he's alive.


Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592

Viewing: 781 - 731

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast