Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS
FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


LOL... looking at that blowup of convection overhead, I'll bet some pple here are wishing they'd extended them to Nassau instead.... :o)

Have to admit there's no serious wind with this, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
I'll take wind under 100mph, with all the rain I can get
Be prepared with you storm kit.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
be wary! All this talk of Hurricane Bret and no one seems to be taking into consideration that it isn't UNLIKELY that the storm will hit the Outer Banks of NC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Currently in Newton, IA,

Fair

99 °F
(37 °C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: SW 10 MPH
Barometer: 29.99"
Dewpoint: 84 °F (29 °C)
Heat Index: 130 °F (54 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Dewpoint of 84, heat index 130.
Wow. If legitimate, that's very, very high.
Evaporative cooling towers cease to be effective near that high of a dewpoint.

A map:

(click for full size)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Well, it's a shame Bret won't go over the U.S....Florida really needs the rain like everyone else.
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Quoting NEVERKNOW:
is it possible that bret can make a uturn and hit florida? dont want to stay awake all night


Highly unlikely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
could be intersting for nc and va have to keep eye on this, with it looking as it wants to get stronger anything is possible i guess i dont remember a hurricane in mid july here in south eastern va tropical storms yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HarryMc:


Woooh. I can't even imagine Heat Index 130. Stay inside with the AC on!


Personal weather station probably next to a 99 cent cleaners store, causing high dewpoint
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm back, at last, and I do believe I spoke too soon on the no rain part of the day for New Providence...



This was pretty impressive moving in, too.... I was up east when it moved in and was fascinated to watch the showers pedestal out from the cloud. Later, on my way home, I got caught in some torrential downpours on the south side of the island. The lightning is pretty terrific - both sheet and the regular kind out there making it a bad idea to be outside right now...



That's an impressive eye. Bret can't be far off hurricane strength. I reckon he'll make it to 75-80mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
OK, TracyHall.
You proved your point (whatever it was) Now please stop.

You obviously have Problems.....
Thank you!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well I stated something in relation to Bret becoming a Hurricane yesterday. I think my exact words were "I have a funny feeling that he will become a hurricane or maybe that is just because I like the name Hurricane Bret"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm back, at last, and I do believe I spoke too soon on the no rain part of the day for New Providence...



This was pretty impressive moving in, too.... I was up east when it moved in and was fascinated to watch the showers pedestal out from the cloud. Later, on my way home, I got caught in some torrential downpours on the south side of the island. The lightning is pretty terrific - both sheet and the regular kind out there making it a bad idea to be outside right now...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gonna be real funny, if Bret turns East, then SE and then U-Turns back west under the next ridge
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting snotly:
PFI in Iowa Dewpoint 89!?



Woooh. I can't even imagine Heat Index 130. Stay inside with the AC on!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I don't think it'll ever rain in TX again at this point.


Nah, Ants are on tha run, monsoon getting ready to come in
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dvorak showing where the CoC is clearing as well

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
808. Skyepony (Mod)
Bret took a hard wobble east there..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
everyone got nervous here in central florida last friday and saturday and spent alot of money at home depot and lowes we all thought bret was comming


if you spent a lot of money at home depot over a system that was never forecast to be more than a possible ts... that's your own fault...lol...

wow, is the blog doing ok now after being over ran earlier...bret gonna put on a show for us tonight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#776
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
everyone got nervous here in central florida last friday and saturday and spent alot of money at home depot and lowes we all thought bret was comming


Nahhh, ya must have got the wrong memo - everyone was preparing for Casey's release, not Bret... ;)
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hey is Dora starting too form a eye all yet??
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
PFI in Iowa Dewpoint 89!?

Quoting cat5hurricane:
Currently in Newton, IA,

Fair

99 °F
(37 °C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: SW 10 MPH
Barometer: 29.99"
Dewpoint: 84 °F (29 °C)
Heat Index: 130 °F (54 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Dewpoint of 84, heat index 130.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll take wind under 100mph, with all the rain I can get
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
yes we need rain real bad
Everyone needs the rain.But not the wind....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
000
URNT12 KNHC 182114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 18/20:47:40Z
B. 28 deg 18 min N
076 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1410 m
D. 49 kt
E. 043 deg 10 nm
F. 143 deg 60 kt
G. 046 deg 16 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 16 C / 1517 m
J. 21 C / 1536 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C16
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0302A BRET OB 09
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 19:39:10Z
;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good afternoon everyone.Bret is really stirring the waters today isnt he?The closer August gets the more worried I become.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
North and Central Florida is burning up and drying up now


LOL, some may make that claim.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


too early to tell but some models are hinting a possibility of some type of development.


Do you have the link to see those models?

Thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Many folks under the probability assumption. It's been so long and we're due.
cat5!.Man it's been so damn lonley around these parts....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Currently in Newton, IA,

Fair

99 °F
(37 °C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: SW 10 MPH
Barometer: 29.99"
Dewpoint: 84 °F (29 °C)
Heat Index: 130 °F (54 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Dewpoint of 84, heat index 130.


lol, about time that ridge moved outta TX, been dealing with it for months, now it's yalls turn,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
everyone got nervous here in central florida last friday and saturday and spent alot of money at home depot and lowes we all thought bret was comming
Do you really want a storm to hit you?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Eye feature still visible, clearing out now.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Any surpluses with any rain received is evaporating MIGHTY fast
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
TDWR High Definition Radar
West Palm Beach, Base Reflectivity 0.60 Degree Elevation Range 225 NM

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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