Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NEVERKNOW:
oh yes the local weather people here are already starting to say that 99l needs to be watched very closely could be just another guess
JFV?
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Quoting aquak9:


and that would be ME

but no, I am not NEVERKNOW
Everyone want's their rain in Florida.Hopefully you guys can get it
from a weak sytem rather than a strong system.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
Afternoon/evening all. We actually had a short drizzle of rain here. We need it soooo bad.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna be real funny, if Bret turns East, then SE and then U-Turns back west under the next ridge
Hurricane Jeanne
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe he just wants his rain really bad?


and that would be ME

but no, I am not NEVERKNOW
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Quoting wildman1117:
i see irish people running for lowes lol


that would be "McLowe's"
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Quoting SQUAWK:
OK folks, here it is.

NEVERKNOW is a troll and is baiting you and you all keep swallowing the bait.

How long will it take you to figure it out.

2 hours ?

3 hours ?
Maybe he just wants his rain really bad?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
I share with you this video I took on June 22, 2011 at Carrollwood, Tampa. Is a short video but I hope you like it.

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
curious about a phrase oft used as 'humor' last season.. pumping the ridge.
could someone explain the phrase, and is that what Bret is doing? was just looking at CONUS WV loops, impressed by the size of this High over the midwest, and wondered if Bret is benefiting from being on it's circulating edge?
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Quoting NEVERKNOW:
honestly i think the bermuda high and fronts will keep all storms away from east coast florida been that way since 2004
Quoting Tazmanian:



not sure but some in too keep a eye on a wave looking vary good
That could keep us buissy after Bret dies off.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
Quoting HarryMc:


Reason for fading to the red x is that the site being referenced no longer has the picture or its name changed. If it's not copyrighted you could save it and upload to WU. If it's copyrighted, oh well.... just check your blog and update it when the red x shows up.


Forgot: some people save copyrighted pictures from the internet and then put them on photobucket or any number of photo save sites... that's still a technical violation of copyright... that makes it 'yours' even though it is the intelectual property of someone else. Just link to the photo on the net so proper credit is there and it should be safe. Disclaimer: this is not legal advice, consult with an attorney if you have any questions.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What the hell is that?.



not sure but some in too keep a eye on a wave looking vary good
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Quoting SQUAWK:
OK folks, here it is.

NEVERKNOW is a troll and is baiting you and you all keep swallowing the bait.

How long will it take you to figure it out.

2 hours ?

3 hours ?


Pretty much just got it lol.
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Late in June and again in July this blogger predicted two named storms for July. The first to form between 7/17-21 and the second to form on 7/31. The first call was correct. Putting myself out on a limb with the second one as it specifies a single day. But so far 1 for 1.
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Quoting wildman1117:
i see irish people running for lowes lol


Not taking any risks, headed for the hills tomorrow...

SARCASM FLAG: [ON]
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OK folks, here it is.

NEVERKNOW is a troll and is baiting you and you all keep swallowing the bait.

How long will it take you to figure it out.

2 hours ?

3 hours ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
is it possible that bret can make a uturn and hit florida? dont want to stay awake all night


No, we here in FL have put up the shower curtain shield.
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i see irish people running for lowes lol
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Quoting NEVERKNOW:
99l should be forcasted to hit florida over the next 5 days but then turn away


A. It's not 99L, it's a tropical wave.
B. It won't be anywhere near Florida for at least a week.

Either calm down or stop trolling.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
99L soon?

What the hell is that?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Abnormally high soil moisture content is believed to be behind the extremely saturated air over the upper midwest and upper plains.


That makes sense considering how wet that part of the country has been for months. My folks live in SE IA and their local reporting station has 101F, 77 dewpoint, 119 heat index
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North Carolina could sure use some rain. There are at least 5 fires burning in the South East. The smoke has been getting to F-Ville and all the way up to Raleigh. The state isn't doing much of anything about the fires. They're saying they're waiting for a tropical system to put it out. It's pretty much NC does about snow - they wait for it to warm up.

I'm tired of the smoke already. I don't want wind damage, but it sure would be nice if Bret drops some rain on NC.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, what are people here using for image storage so the images on their blogs can remain? I'm fine for pictures I make myself, because those I can upload to Wunderground. But web-based imagery usually fades to the red x after a while. Any suggestions would be much appreciated.


Reason for fading to the red x is that the site being referenced no longer has the picture or its name changed. If it's not copyrighted you could save it and upload to WU. If it's copyrighted, oh well.... just check your blog and update it when the red x shows up.
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Quoting NEVERKNOW:
i think ireland is a possibilty hopefully they are watching this wild storm closely and preparing now


Don't worry, I'll make sure everyone over here in Ireland knows about the risks of Bret....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, what are people here using for image storage so the images on their blogs can remain? I'm fine for pictures I make myself, because those I can upload to Wunderground. But web-based imagery usually fades to the red x after a while. Any suggestions would be much appreciated.
FYI: I use tinypic.com sometimes, but some folks cannot see pics hosted there. It's a firewall/work issue, I'm told.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
they said that on the weather here that you never know what htese storms will do so everyone needs to keep a very close eye on bret here in florida it mght get caught up in a trough and change direction could just be another false scare never know


Not really sure how a trough could pull it westward, troughs across the northern US/Canada just pull them back out to sea, to the northeast. Don't stay up all night, it's not likely to happen, even if it did it wouldn't be land falling on Florida until tomorrow afternoon. Really doubt it's possible.
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99L soon?

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BTW, what are people here using for image storage so the images on their blogs can remain? I'm fine for pictures I make myself, because those I can upload to Wunderground. But web-based imagery usually fades to the red x after a while. Any suggestions would be much appreciated.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Heyyyy!
Lol.I'm quite aware that not all Texans talk like that.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
ill put down 30 on ireland also
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Currently in Newton, IA,

Fair

99 °F
(37 °C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: SW 10 MPH
Barometer: 29.99"
Dewpoint: 84 °F (29 °C)
Heat Index: 130 °F (54 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Dewpoint of 84, heat index 130.


got a link?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Opps I'm sorry I mean Hill Billy accent.


Heyyyy!
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting RitaEvac:


Personal weather station probably next to a 99 cent cleaners store, causing high dewpoint


I dunno. I remember a long time ago being in Jeddah Saudi, right on the Mediteranian, 43C with 90 percent humidity... what heat index would that be??? I just know it was aweful and stiffling.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
He's from..(says in southern accent) Texas....
Opps I'm sorry I mean Hill Billy accent.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
omg everyone here in florida is prepared
He's from..(says in southern accent) Texas....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
but they say a unual trough could delevop and change everything


Who said that?
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
be wary! All this talk of Hurricane Bret and no one seems to be taking into consideration that it isn't UNLIKELY that the storm will hit the Outer Banks of NC.


It's a pretty small storm, and the NHC's cone of uncertainty keeps it well off the Outer Banks, even at the westernmost point. It's unlikely that Bret will give many problems to North Carolina.
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS
FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


LOL... looking at that blowup of convection overhead, I'll bet some pple here are wishing they'd extended them to Nassau instead.... :o)

Have to admit there's no serious wind with this, though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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