Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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931. txjac
Quoting JLPR2:


I'm so tired of this rain.
Beach time has turned to TV time. -_-


Houston would gladly accept some ...send it on my friend
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Everyone leave? Blog moving a little slower.


Dinner time or happy hour depending on where they are.
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Everyone leave? Blog moving a little slower.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23892
928. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
U know, u guys have gotten most of the season's rain for the entire CAR dumped on u... I don't want to imagine how bad the flooding would be if you got a serious storm like Noel with huge rainfall rates, plus some even moderate winds. All the trees would come down. :o(


I'm so tired of this rain.
Beach time has turned to TV time. -_-
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
This has to be a hurricane soon... OMG... That Eye, my.... im speechless... hes wrapping this all up nicely... would be surprised to just be a TS... my gosh, this is one heck of a mini demon.


Looks like you're having a double rainbow incident.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Bret really expanded in size.


Floater loop is really impressive. It's starting look like a real grown up storm storm even though it's only a day old.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Oh great. ANOTHER wave approaching PR. Can't we have a break?
U know, u guys have gotten most of the season's rain for the entire CAR dumped on u... I don't want to imagine how bad the flooding would be if you got a serious storm like Noel with huge rainfall rates, plus some even moderate winds. All the trees would come down. :o(
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
This has to be a hurricane soon... OMG... That Eye, my.... im speechless... hes wrapping this all up nicely... would be surprised to just be a TS... my gosh, this is one heck of a mini demon.
Maybe a Grace repeat?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
This has to be a hurricane soon... OMG... That Eye, my.... im speechless... hes wrapping this all up nicely... would be surprised to just be a TS... my gosh, this is one heck of a mini demon.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Bret really expanded in size.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
hey cat5 (if you want me to call you by another name, let me know lol), yea it would be a nice day for something cold up there.

130 is a bit ridiculous. Heat index in San Diego is probably 75, nice and comfy
My temps should be approching what he's saying.My temps were just as comfterable as your's this weekend.Damn.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Didn't Bret have a huge "tail" of heavy convective clouds yesterday? It was over S FL...
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Quoting MrstormX:
Look at IR, lol



Northwestern side is still the big problem. That eye though.... Really think he'll have a go at Cat 1.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Good day for a cold beer Tom. 130 Heat Index currently in Newton, IA.
hey cat5 (if you want me to call you by another name, let me know lol), yea it would be a nice day for something cold up there.

130 is a bit ridiculous. Heat index in San Diego is probably 75, nice and comfy
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Taz is a Californian...

UNless he moved...
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Look at IR, lol

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting Tazmanian:
99L soon?


Oh great. ANOTHER wave approaching PR. Can't we have a break?
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Quoting PcolaDan:


When did Taz move?!?!?!?!



sorry dont live in FL lol
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Quoting PcolaDan:


When did Taz move?!?!?!?!
I thought he lived in Florida.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting Tazmanian:




am kinding a round LOL
Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting washingtonian115:
Taz I live in D.C so can't do it.Maybe one of the fellow floridian bloggers can do it.


When did Taz move?!?!?!?!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Currently in Newton, IA,

Fair

99 F
(37 C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: SW 10 MPH
Barometer: 29.99"
Dewpoint: 84 F (29 C)
Heat Index: 130 F (54 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Dewpoint of 84, heat index 130.


I think the most amazing thing about that is the temperature isn't even above 100. So, when people look back in the archives at the date, unless they take they time to look at the dewpoint and calculate, they wont realize the insane heat index. Just a high of 99.
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Although Ma-on has weakened, Ma-on will still be a great danger since there is no rainfall scale to measure how dangerous would be the flooding provided.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Recon in center again..~28.350N 76.900W...998.6mb..52kts going in on the surface...43 coming out.


No 'cane yet then. He'll get close.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Taz I live in D.C so can't do it.Maybe one of the fellow floridian bloggers can do it.




am kinding a round LOL
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Quoting Tazmanian:
would any one like too kiss my feet i give you $100 if you do LOL
Taz I live in D.C so can't do it.Maybe one of the fellow floridian bloggers can do it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting Skyepony:
Recon in center again..~28.350N 76.900W...998.6mb..52kts going in on the surface...43 coming out.


Was that the last swoop?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
900. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon in center again..~28.350N 76.900W...998.6mb..52kts going in on the surface...43 coming out.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37820
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... the blog has gone funky somehow....
I can smell it from my computer screen.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting Vincent4989:

I think he's just some kind of noob. But he reminds me of Jason... except not very obsessed with T-waves.

I think he just ran off to hide in his closet after I asked that question.
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Quoting aquak9:
NEVERKNOW, where are you? Just a city and state will be fine.

I think he's just some kind of noob. But he reminds me of Jason... except not very obsessed with T-waves.
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Persistence is a very dirty word around here. Maybe something unexpected will pop.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011

ALTHOUGH S CENTRAL TX WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SILENT 10S FOR POPS.
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Hmmm.... the blog has gone funky somehow....
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Quoting MrstormX:


Pretty big shot, look at the eye. Centering in the convection.
Tusaday and Wensday is his best shot.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks T.S. Bret may go for Cat 1 within 24 hours?


I think Bret is gonna be a Cat 1 by tomorrow morning. Impressive structure, eye looking more defined and very obvious on visible imagery. I don't think he's far off being a hurricane now. Shame recon is on its way home, would love to have another pass at the centre.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I do.Their's a shot at it.


Pretty big shot, look at the eye. Centering in the convection.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting washingtonian115:
You'll never know.HA HA LOL.
lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yep. Exactly. And that appears to be about the general average for all of southeast IA (near Ottumwa and the entire state), which heat indexes between 110-120 at the moment, probably for several more hours.


Yep, my folks are in Ft Madison, about an hour east/southeast of Ottumwa. More of the same for at least the next 3 days.
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Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks T.S. Bret may go for Cat 1 within 24 hours?
I do.Their's a shot at it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
ba-dump BUMP shinnnngggg!!
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Quoting wildman1117:
could be intersting for nc and va have to keep eye on this, with it looking as it wants to get stronger anything is possible i guess i dont remember a hurricane in mid july here in south eastern va tropical storms yes


I can't even remember a tropical storm in VA during July.
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Quoting aquak9:
NEVERKNOW, where are you? Just a city and state will be fine.
You'll never know.HA HA LOL.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting FrankZapper:
JFV?


nope...uses small words.
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Who thinks T.S. Bret may go for Cat 1 within 24 hours?
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NEVERKNOW, where are you? Just a city and state will be fine.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.