Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

Share this Blog
0
+

Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 981 - 931

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

The eye seems to be displacing itself from the convection, my guess is that it is a short lived feature.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Welcome wn1995
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bret is becoming much more symmetrical and outflow is increasing in all quadrants. The only thing I think limiting him right now is dry air at the mid levels, limiting deep thunderstorm activity. Not sure if that's gonna allow him to make it to cane status. Anythings possible I guess. Don't think it'll be much more than a minimal hurricane tho.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:
I am worried that the storms coming this way from LA are going to miss Houston ...doesnt look like its going to give me any rain


I dont think they will make it here....sigh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wn1995:
Hey everyone, new here, not new to weather!


Hi back. And lots of weather stuff to work with now and upcoming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Her satellite presentation already resembles a hurricane with a faint eye feature on visible. Probably a hurricane within the next 6-12 hours.


Look at Bret, he has a very impressive eye, and recon just decided he was at 45mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Give 'er another 24 hours, I would say. She'll be a 'cane soon enough though.


Her satellite presentation already resembles a hurricane with a faint eye feature on visible. Probably a hurricane within the next 6-12 hours.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Patrap, I like your avatar of General Lee smoking a cigar. Was that portrait done after one of his glorious victories?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
DORA STRENGTHENING very fast!!!

maybe a hurricane soon


Give 'er another 24 hours, I would say. She'll be a 'cane soon enough though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is recon doing?!
Theyve made to loops...
in the same place, i think theyre going in circles to see who will throw up first?
*You dizzy yet?!*
*Im No.. Blaeah!*Pilot Throws Up*
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
XX/AOI/XL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
969. txjac
Quoting wn1995:
Hey everyone, new here, not new to weather!



Welcome ...lots of weather to love at the moment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Re: 953 - Thanks, KOTG...

Dora looks like she's getting set to explore... [u mean no one else has cracked a lame joke on that yet?lol]

What's the latest on Ma-on?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Hey everyone, new here, not new to weather!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
966. JLPR2
Quoting txjac:


Houston would gladly accept some ...send it on my friend


If I could I would send a truck filled with clouds. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
964. txjac
Quoting jeebsa:
Good evening everyone



Good evening
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
000
URNT12 KNHC 182229
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 18/22:03:30Z
B. 28 deg 21 min N
076 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1414 m
D. 40 kt
E. 113 deg 18 nm
F. 203 deg 51 kt
G. 112 deg 17 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C / 1516 m
J. 20 C / 1524 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C18
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0302A BRET OB 13
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NE QUAD 20:42:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 110 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
RADAR DEPICTED TWO MAIN SPIRAL BANDS HEAVIEST ONE IN THE NW TO W SIDE


Man, a 45mph storm with an eye? Weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone have the latest satellite estimates for Bret?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Dang it, my google earth locked up again, the 2nd time today, trying to refresh Recon Info.


According to my Google Earth the recon plane hasn't moved in the last 20 minutes. Guessing that's not quite right....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
URNT12 KNHC 182229
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 18/22:03:30Z
B. 28 deg 21 min N
076 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1414 m
D. 40 kt
E. 113 deg 18 nm
F. 203 deg 51 kt
G. 112 deg 17 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C / 1516 m
J. 20 C / 1524 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C18
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0302A BRET OB 13
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NE QUAD 20:42:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 110 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
RADAR DEPICTED TWO MAIN SPIRAL BANDS HEAVIEST ONE IN THE NW TO W SIDE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All I can say is, "Please, God, no serious storms in our area in the next 6 weeks! I don't think I can take the heat if we have no power=no a/c for weeks!"

My condolences to pple in places like N Dakota, who may not even HAVE a/c....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Nevermind again, recon actually is going home now >_<
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Nevermind, recon's still going on. Didn't see any copy/paste of the latest recon info so I assumed they went home.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
04E/TS/D/CX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
952. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting MrstormX:


Was that the last swoop?


Yes~ Recon is going home.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39384
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Best wave we've seen roll off Africa yet. Might not be too long before we see Cindy, seems to be a few danger areas in 1-2 weeks.


Looks like the real fun will soon begin, not that Bret isn't fun.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting MrstormX:
Look at IR, lol



I noticed that as well.. That's gotta be the sorriest looking almost hurricane I've ever seen. Cloudtops seem unusually warm. Don't really know what to make of it, lol. When will we have another recon?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Dang it, my google earth locked up again, the 2nd time today, trying to refresh Recon Info.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
very interesting what is happening near the Cape Verde Islands. I see Invest 99L coming soon !!!


Best wave we've seen roll off Africa yet. Might not be too long before we see Cindy, seems to be a few danger areas in 1-2 weeks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
LOL mrstorm,
+1
i thought it would be funny to over react, apparantly im now "double rainbow man II" ROFL


:)
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


This is a seriously odd system, pressure rising and yet it's developing an eye.
Wondering if it has something to do with that baroclinic origin... but I don't remember other storms with similar origins behaving this way.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
That is alot of Highs. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
very interesting what is happening near the Cape Verde Islands. I see Invest 99L coming soon !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
943. txjac
I am worried that the storms coming this way from LA are going to miss Houston ...doesnt look like its going to give me any rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bummer. One phone call and I have to be in Mexico tomorrow. Don't let any storms sneak up on us OK?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Why is it in the afternoons the blog goes funky and I can only read the left side of posts? Or is it just me?
Somebody posted something between 850 and 900 that threw the blog off.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Why is it in the afternoons the blog goes funky and I can only read the left side of posts? Or is it just me?


Used to happen to me pretty frequently with internet explorer.. havent noticed it with mozilla. Not sure if it's related.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL mrstorm,
+1
i thought it would be funny to over react, apparantly im now "double rainbow man II" ROFL
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting BahaHurican:
Despite the eye, the cloud temps don't seem all that cold.... rather unusual for a near hurricane, imo.


This is a seriously odd system, pressure rising and yet it's developing an eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
02L/H/B/C1
MARK
28.35N/76.95W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting FrankZapper:
Half the City here in NOLA had bad street flooding from heavy rains, 6+ inches in some places. The storm drains are still clogged up since Katrina and nobody will get out there and clean them out.


Wow. Is that really still the case six years later even?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Despite the eye, the cloud temps don't seem all that cold.... rather unusual for a near hurricane, imo.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Why is it in the afternoons the blog goes funky and I can only read the left side of posts? Or is it just me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whilst organisation is improving, recon has Bret increasing in pressure, at 999mb at the minute. Doesn't really suggest strengthening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Half the City here in NOLA today had bad street flooding from heavy rains, 6 inches in some places. The storm drains are still clogged up since Katrina and nobody will get out there and clean them out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
931. txjac
Quoting JLPR2:


I'm so tired of this rain.
Beach time has turned to TV time. -_-


Houston would gladly accept some ...send it on my friend
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 981 - 931

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
31 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron