Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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1031. txjac
I dont want a hurricane ...just some rain or a few days here and there. It is getting old watering though. There are many of us on this blog that are desperate for rain. We dont need it in the fashion of a hurricane though

Can it get too "dry" to rain? Over the past week it seems like we had rain clouds over us ...nice big grey ones ...but no rain ...or maybe it rained and just didnt make it to the earth?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see a upgrade too hurricane at 11pm has there wont be any 8pm update has become there no watch up
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think Bret eye is gone now in fac it looks like its weaking


Hah, that was a quick turnaround Taz. 2 minutes. But yeah it does seem to be fading convection-wise. Although it never really had a lot of cold cloud tops to begin with.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see a upgrade too hurricane at 11pm has there wont be any 8pm update has become there no watch up


The recon plane that just left didn't find any hurricane force winds in Bret. Why would it be upgraded?
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Bring it on Cindy! you wanna tustle you dang fat biker from africa, come and get me!(Don't blame me for making her angry, i dont care, I JUST WANT A GREEN YARD! from not watering it myself)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting aislinnpaps:
And don't forget the Louisianans who are in the same drought, seven parishes being federal disater areas due to it. Sigh, sun is out and drying up the rain we just had.


I know how you feel. I'm in central GA and under a D4 "exceptional" drought as well, and wishcasting both Bret and that blob that appeared somewhat over where you are.

Oklahoma and New Mexico are also in the same drought. They never get mentioned either, so I thought I'd just throw them out there haha.
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We had cloud cover today here, Yes.
No rain to speak of? Nope.
How bad is the Drought? Catastrophic.
How much rain have you gotten this Month? 0.001
How about in the last 3 months? 0.01
How about in the last 5 months? 0.1
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
This is not normal.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1023. Melagoo
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see a upgrade too hurricane at 11pm has there wont be any 8pm update has become there no watch up


I'd say that is a good possibility Taz
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i think Bret eye is gone now in fac it looks like its weaking
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1021. txjac
Quoting neutralenso:
Bret is not a threat therefore its all old news for me :) what is a threat is what the models show next week that could become cindy :)


Where are you located at?
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1020. HarryMc
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Recon says there is.
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)

So in this case, there is an ''eye'' in ''Bret''.


Looking back through some of the recent TS images, I don't see a lot of clearly defined eyes. Is this some sort of anomoly or just "it happens"?
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we may see a upgrade too hurricane at 11pm has there wont be any 8pm update has become there no watch up
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Quoting Caffinehog:
There is no "I" in "team."
There is no "eye" in "Bret."


Recon says there is.
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)

So in this case, there is an ''eye'' in ''Bret''.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
1016. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
7.3N/28.88W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
And don't forget the Louisianans who are in the same drought, seven parishes being federal disater areas due to it. Sigh, sun is out and drying up the rain we just had.
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1014. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04E/H/D/C1
MARK
10.55N/93.63W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
1013. txjac
Thanks Baha ...love the song
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Bret is trying too clear out his eye
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1011. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
02L/H/B/C1
MARK
28.35N/76.95W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
There is no "I" in "team."
There is no "eye" in "Bret."
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Quoting Tazmanian:




if you go too the nhc it says 65mph winds all so now there no watchs up there olny going too be 11pm and 5am updats


I know, but that was from three hours ago and recon just found lower winds, so far as I can tell. Hadn't realised about no intermediate advisories, makes sense though.
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This is a Caribbean tune they used to play on the radio when I was growing up. I dedicate it to the TX bloggers out there...

WATER
(M. Keith - A. Bergman - N. Luboff)

Water, we need water today.
Let us pray, let's pray for the rain.

Water, we got to have water today.
Let us pray, let's pray for the rain.
Water will make the banana tree grow.
And the rain is good for the cane.

Bamboo. I never seen bamboo so dry.
Let us pray, let's pray for the rain.
Water, we got to have water today,
And the rain is good for the grain.

Water me while I'm on my bended knee.
I pray that I soon will see water from the sky.
Oh, let us sing together. We all can bring.
That most is a sadly thing.
Without it we all die. We'd dry.

Water, we got to have water today.
Let us pray, pray hard as we can.
Water for cooking the peas and the rice.
Water please to put in me pan.

Water me while I'm on my bended knee.
I pray that I soon will see water from the sky.
Oh, let us sing together. We all can bring.
That most is a sadly thing.
Without it we all die. We'd dry.

Water, we got to have water today.
Let us pray, let's pray for the rain.
Water will make us so happy again.
Let us pray, let's pray for the rain.

Water! We need water today.


Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Doesn't point 'D', the surface winds, say 40knots?





yes


but nhc has the storm at 65mph winds
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1005. Melagoo
Bret is really starting to spin
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Quoting Tazmanian:



65mph


Doesn't point 'D', the surface winds, say 40knots?
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:))

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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Going to be interesting to see what the NHC puts the wind speed at for 8pm, recon would suggest 45mph but I would guess they'll have it higher than that due to the structure.




if you go too the nhc it says 65mph winds all so now there no watchs up there olny going too be 11pm and 5am updats
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1000. wn1995
Quoting HarryMc:


Hi back. And lots of weather stuff to work with now and upcoming.


Yeah, definitely.
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999. txjac
Quoting rod2635:


insane dewpoint for iowa


Yea, truly feel for those not used to the heat and heat indexes that are being experienced. You all have to feel like you are melting
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Man, a 45mph storm with an eye? Weird.



65mph
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Going to be interesting to see what the NHC puts the wind speed at for 8pm, recon would suggest 45mph but I would guess they'll have it higher than that due to the structure.
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Quoting HurrikanEB:


I think the most amazing thing about that is the temperature isn't even above 100. So, when people look back in the archives at the date, unless they take they time to look at the dewpoint and calculate, they wont realize the insane heat index. Just a high of 99.


insane dewpoint for iowa
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995. txjac
Quoting MrstormX:


Take a look at the cloud-tops, it is lacking the thunderstorm activity that you would typically see with a cat 1 cane, or even a strong TS. I guess the circulation must still be strong enough to for an eye though.



Thanks, I've looked and think that I see what you are talking about
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Quoting txjac:


RAIN!!! Slow, gentle, ground soaking rain!


Ah, of course, that magical substance. Hoping you get some your way soon. Could try to ship you some over from here in Northern Ireland, been raining for the last 4 days straight.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Bret Catching up to arlene quickly in ACE, and i think he'll match her ACE tomorrow at around say 1ish Pm


Honestly, I do hope that we get some storms with a good deal of ACE this season (fish spinners of course). It's a lot more enjoyable to follow a long lived system, opposed to these pop-up, die-out systems that it seems like we've had a bunch of in recent seasons. But the short ones do keep you on your toes.
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Pray... pray for de rain...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
991. txjac
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Hoping and praying for what?


RAIN!!! Slow, gentle, ground soaking rain!
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Quoting txjac:


me and several others on the blog are hoping and praying ...


Hoping and praying for what?
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Quoting txjac:


that is so odd to me. any explanation as to why the eye is present although one wouldnt expect to see one?


Take a look at the cloud-tops, it is lacking the thunderstorm activity that you would typically see with a cat 1 cane, or even a strong TS. I guess the circulation must still be strong enough to for an eye though.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
988. txjac
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


My guess is that he got nearish hurricane status, developed a reasonable eye, and is now weakening fairly quickly, hence the eye is still about. Eye looks like it's starting to fall apart now. Never seen anything like it before though.


me and several others on the blog are hoping and praying ...
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It's raining in west-central LA!! In two days maybe we'll be counting new blade of grass! (Have to understand there isn't much grass here anymore.)
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Quoting txjac:


that is so odd to me. any explanation as to why the eye is present although one wouldnt expect to see one?


My guess is that he got nearish hurricane status, developed a reasonable eye, and is now weakening fairly quickly, hence the eye is still about. Eye looks like it's starting to fall apart now. Never seen anything like it before though.
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Quoting txjac:
I am worried that the storms coming this way from LA are going to miss Houston ...doesnt look like its going to give me any rain
Just went and took a look at the Sat. Haven't looked at WV, but it does appear that slowly, inexorably, the rain moves closer to Galveston Bay.... you may get lucky tonight.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
Bret Catching up to arlene quickly in ACE, and i think he'll match her ACE tomorrow at around say 1ish Pm
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
982. txjac
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Look at Bret, he has a very impressive eye, and recon just decided he was at 45mph.


that is so odd to me. any explanation as to why the eye is present although one wouldnt expect to see one?
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The eye seems to be displacing itself from the convection, my guess is that it is a short lived feature.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.