Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

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Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.

Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
when the next cat 5 hurricane
In 2013
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Caneswatch, the NHC is watching for CV action yet, they tend to warrant stuff more freely in the Central and Eastern Atlantic into August/September. I would expect them to mention it in about 2 days or so, if it looks good then theyll mention it, and that is if it still has model support.


I see. Thanks for telling me what's up.
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1079. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
28.35N/76.95W
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I am thinking tomorrow when the Pacific storm bombs



works for me
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Quoting Tazmanian:
when the next cat 5 hurricane


I am thinking tomorrow when the Pacific storm bombs
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When I lived in Iowa City for a summer, I noted that half of the older houses had no AC. I hope folks are checking on their neighbors and offering a cooler place to be for a while.

When you cannot escape the heat for a couple of hours, even in the dead of night, that can produce heat exhaustion and/or heat stroke.
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when the next cat 5 hurricane
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Blog is down to a crawl.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
1072. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PcolaDan:


I know it gets blazing hot there, but aren't dew points and heat indices that high unusual? Where does the moisture come from, the high rivers?


increased global water vapour levels

kinda like a hot house effect
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1071. jeebsa
LOL
Quoting FrankZapper:
Bret is headed out to sea oldtimer. Did you forget to put your Alzheimers patch on? Sit back and relax and watch some Lawrence Welk.
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18/2345 UTC 28.4N 76.8W T3.5/3.5 BRET -- Atlantic
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Quoting Gearsts:
Bret never had and eye, was just dry air from what i can see.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 22:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 22:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°21'N 76°54'W (28.35N 76.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 229 miles (368 km) to the N (7°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,414m (4,639ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (113°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 203° at 51kts (From the SSW at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (112°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:42:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE (110°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RADAR DEPICTED TWO MAIN SPIRAL BANDS HEAVIEST ONE IN THE NW TO W SID

Read this and tell if Bret had an eye or not!
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The text should you not be able to read it:

Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings
In Effect at 420 PM CDT, July 18,2011
Impacted (2005) Population: 67,696,880
Area Impacted (Square km): 2,049,856
Area Impacted (Square mi): 791,454

(That's an area larger than the country of Mexico.)

Click for larger image:
Uh-oh


(Forgive the whitespace; that's NOAA, not me.)
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Quoting P451:


It is quite unreal. Also consider the location. I see a 122 on there. That's ridiculous.



Iowa.... 126F!!!

COUNCIL BLFS * SUNNY 97 84 67 CALM 29.99F HX 126
NEWTON * SUNNY 97 84 67 SW7 29.96S HX 126


Hourly Reports MN, SD, IA, MS, KS, NE etc


I know it gets blazing hot there, but aren't dew points and heat indices that high unusual? Where does the moisture come from, the high rivers?
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Quoting P451:


It is quite unreal. Also consider the location. I see a 122 on there. That's ridiculous.



Iowa.... 126F!!!

COUNCIL BLFS * SUNNY 97 84 67 CALM 29.99F HX 126
NEWTON * SUNNY 97 84 67 SW7 29.96S HX 126


Hourly Reports MN, SD, IA, MS, KS, NE etc
To have heat indexes like that you are either flooded or have plenty of ground moisture.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
omg 2005 Bret was olny made it too 40mph 2011 Bret so far 65mph


If i remember correctly, Lee in 2005 tied some other storm for the lowest possible ACE...

Edit: 0.25 (not sure if that's the lowest possible.. thought it was lower)
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1056. jeebsa
Not again (Ignore)
Quoting NEVERKNOW:
WHATS UP WITH 99L IS IT GONNA COME ACROSS AND HIT FLORIDA?
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1055. HarryMc
Quoting P451:
Heat Index....



That chart gives me the heebie-jeebie's just looking at it. Those heat indices have to be the most uncomfortable in ages and it looks like no improvement in the near future.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Bret never had and eye, was just dry air from what i can see.


Not per recon.
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1053. Gearsts
Bret never had and eye, was just dry air from what i can see.
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this year Arlene olny made it too 65mph 2005 Arlene made it too 70mph and made land fall in the USA
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omg 2005 Bret was olny made it too 40mph 2011 Bret so far 65mph
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Yes, it's bad when people are saying they'd like a nice tropical storm for the rain it would bring.
When your lakes are 40 to 50 foot low you really need tropical rains to do any good.
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New convection attempting to sprout north of the center now. Nightfall approaching for Bret, DMIN upon him, then DMAX to support him.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Caneswatch, the NHC is watching for CV action yet, they tend to warrant stuff more freely in the Central and Eastern Atlantic into August/September. I would expect them to mention it in about 2 days or so, if it looks good then theyll mention it, and that is if it still has model support.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Bret reminds me of the late season storms from 2005. The ones like Epsilon. With the ring of weak convection. Though Epsilon is probably a bad example cause at one time it had fairly decent convection.


I agree
Delta would probably be the best example, though.
Maxed out at 70mph but had an eye also..

Epsilon
Delta
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Bret reminds me of the late season storms from 2005. The ones like Epsilon. With the ring of weak convection. Though Epsilon is probably a bad example cause at one time it had fairly decent convection.
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Still no mention of the CV wave in the 8pm TWO. Don't you think they'd mention it by now?
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Yep, I agree 100.90714582% with that.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1040. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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States In Exceptional Drought(D4):
South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona.
That is 12 States in Exceptional Drought

States in Extreme Drought(D3):
North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona.
That is 14 States(Counting others in Exceptional) in Extreme Drought
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1038. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02L/H/B/C1
MARK
28.35N/76.95W


would i be correct in saying that while his eye does seem to be filling, at the same time his outflow is becoming nicer on the south & southwest sides? Seems to be expanding and becoming more symmetrical (in that loop anyway).
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1036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1035. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
fade away

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1034. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PcolaDan:
This is not normal.

nothing will be normal everything will be abnormal sign of the times
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Hah, that was a quick turnaround Taz. 2 minutes. But yeah it does seem to be fading convection-wise. Although it never really had a lot of cold cloud tops to begin with.

Bret is a very unusual storm.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I know how you feel. I'm in central GA and under a D4 "exceptional" drought as well, and wishcasting both Bret and that blob that appeared somewhat over where you are.

Oklahoma and New Mexico are also in the same drought. They never get mentioned either, so I thought I'd just throw them out there haha.


Yes, it's bad when people are saying they'd like a nice tropical storm for the rain it would bring.
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1031. txjac
I dont want a hurricane ...just some rain or a few days here and there. It is getting old watering though. There are many of us on this blog that are desperate for rain. We dont need it in the fashion of a hurricane though

Can it get too "dry" to rain? Over the past week it seems like we had rain clouds over us ...nice big grey ones ...but no rain ...or maybe it rained and just didnt make it to the earth?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.