Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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1225. OBXgirl
3:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
I do wish Bret would slip over close enough to the OBX to give us a little rain....we are feeling like cacti here.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
1224. kshipre1
3:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Levi,

Do you see the same pattern of troughs recurving storms like last year?

I know no two seasons are exacty alike but just wondering. Also, do you see any similarities with this ENSO season compared to 2005? Thanks
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
1223. CanesfanatUT
3:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Is it the wave that is coming off africa , can u post a link please


Sure: Blame Canada model: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/GGEM.html

Fun lovin' Euro model: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
1222. wolftribe2009
3:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
One should never use a List Name before its used OFFICIALLY.

Something can and usually forms before it.

Its also confusing,,maybe use the next invest # first as that is the way its done professionally.

Say, like, I think the Nam has 99L pegged in the BOC Satuday


True but if you are like me than you don't think anything is forming before this feature; therefore, they are calling it "Cindy" because it is the area the models are bent on forecasting. That isn't just ONE model but Three now
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
1221. wolftribe2009
3:05 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
ok let me get this straight

the ECMWF is saying that "cindy" will be churning through the Eastern Gulf on July 27-29

the EURO is saying that "Cindy" will be forming around 144 Hours and will be churning off EAST Florida 240 Hours from Now while a SECOND area develops South of Panama City.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
1220. HurricaneDean07
3:03 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Cloud its heading in the direction FL, due to the AB high weakening from a strong trough exiting the east coast, so if youre thinking it's a caribbean storm then the set up basically would put it in the GOM.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1219. Patrap
3:02 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
One should never use a List Name before its used OFFICIALLY.

Something can and usually forms before it.

Its also confusing,,maybe use the next invest # first as that is the way its done professionally.

Say, like, I think the Nam has 99L pegged in the BOC Satuday
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1218. HurricaneDean07
2:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
nuetral
Euro show a cat.1 hurricane riding up the east coast(due to a frontal system)
the Cmc is just beginning to jump on the thought so they still have it weak. but do hint at it.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1217. PcolaDan
2:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1215. HurricaneDean07
2:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting P451:
nope 5 for 4...
90E: Bust
91E: Adrian
92E: Beatriz
93E: Calvin
94E: Dora
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1214. Patrap
2:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1213. mamakins
2:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting Patrap:


The Low seems to be following the Guidance WEST today


Thanks! I appreciate the info. Have a great day.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1210. IceCoast
2:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting AllStar17:
jason:

No, read that again.


NWS Taunton MA mentions the possibility of an isolated tornado. They said in an earlier discussion that the shear profiles still weren't as favorable as the June 1st event, which produced the Springfield tornado.

Regardless, shaping up to be a day of severe weather for us in the Northeast.

ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...FEELING IS THERE WILL STILL BE TWO WAVES
OF CONVECTION. /FIRST/ WITH THE MCS INTO THIS EARLY AFTN...ALONG
AND AHEAD OF WHICH CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM WITH THE
DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY LAYER. CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE SITUATED WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. /SECOND/
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT POISED SE OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY RGN...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE REBOUNDING BEHIND THE MCS OVER
THE ERN GRT LKS RGN. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO HIGHLIGHT SOME
CLEARING WHICH SHOULD ACT TO AID THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FEEL
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW OF THREATS FOR THIS LATER AFTN INTO
EVNG...WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND THE
ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES
.

AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND LEWPS...BUT WITH S/SW SFC FLOW AND FAST MID-LVL FLOW
OUT OF THE W/NW...COUPLED WITH SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SFC COLD
FRONT...SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANT BE RULED OUT PER
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
1209. wolftribe2009
2:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
The EURO is showing a storm forming in the lesser antils around 144 hours
Link

This is a look at it 192 Hours
Link

Then at 216 Hours we have the storm turning North West (Threat to the East Coast) while a Separate area is over the Pan Handle of Florida

a href="Link" target="_blank">Link

240 Hours
East Coast storm is now near the North East Bahamas. While the Low over the Pan Handle of Florida has moved Southward
Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
1208. HurricaneDean07
2:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Interesting to note every single EPAC storm this year has become a hurrricane:
Adrian: Cat. 4
Beatriz: Cat.1
Calvin: Cat.1
Dora: Cat.3?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1207. caneswatch
2:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Ola. I see the 0Z Euro brings Cindy near SEFLA and then up the Coast. 0Z CMC supports development and movement north of Hispanola.

Certainly one to watch


Interesting. Most definitely it's one to watch.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1206. BoroDad17
2:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
This front seems to be spinning off lows left and right as it leaves the area. MS/LA, E of FL, and another E of GA/SC possibly
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
1205. Seflhurricane
2:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Ola. I see the 0Z Euro brings Cindy near SEFLA and then up the Coast. 0Z CMC supports development and movement north of Hispanola.

Certainly one to watch
Is it the wave that is coming off africa , can u post a link please
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
1204. weatherh98
2:49 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting WINDSMURF:


With all due respect. I strongly believe that your brother is smoking the wrong brand of cigars


Thats one surewy to have arevolution
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1203. wolftribe2009
2:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Ola. I see the 0Z Euro brings Cindy near SEFLA and then up the Coast. 0Z CMC supports development and movement north of Hispanola.

Certainly one to watch


see my next post in a moment. I think that low might be a "separate" storm.

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
1202. BoroDad17
2:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
I have to admit, Jason is right, there is a pretty pronounced spin NE of Bret on the visible loop from NHC floater.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
1201. aspectre
2:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
1159 Levi32 "Let's not forget about Ma-on closing in on Japan...though dry air did a bigger number on this storm than even I expected. This is great news for the people of Japan, and hopefully this storm doesn't turn out to be a major damaging event."

Ma-on's probably embarrassed enough about raining on Japan's Women'sWorldCupChampionship victory parade without adding injury to faux pas.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1200. WINDSMURF
2:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?


With all due respect. I strongly believe that your brother is smoking the wrong brand of cigars
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
1198. MahFL
2:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting aspectre:
before Ma-on heads westward out into the ocean


I think you mean east.....
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3702
1197. weatherh98
2:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Louisianians are still using the rain right now texas can wait.... just kidding yall need the rain just as muchas we do.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1196. Caner
2:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1195. Patrap
2:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting mamakins:
Patrap Good Morning,

Do you have an idea as to which direction the low over LA/Miss might be traveling? I live in Houston and I'm cautiously optimistic for the rain but also a little concerned about flooding. Boy we haven't said that word in a long time:)


The Low seems to be following the Guidance WEST today
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1193. CanesfanatUT
2:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Ola. I see the 0Z Euro brings Cindy near SEFLA and then up the Coast. 0Z CMC supports development and movement north of Hispanola.

Certainly one to watch
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
1191. AllStar17
2:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
jason:

No, read that again.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1186. DookiePBC
2:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


WOW! we may have 2 storms at once! and then merge into a superstorm and affect the fish!

WOW


Someone call the SciFi network...we've got a new script for them...Category 7: Disaster in Freeport. Someone check Debbie Gibson's calendar!

On the weather side, I show up this morning and find out there's a tropical storm not to far off the Palm Beach County shore...wouldn't know it from the sun being out!!
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
1185. emcf30
2:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2011

My bad, posted old image
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1952
1184. mamakins
2:35 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Patrap Good Morning,

Do you have an idea as to which direction the low over LA/Miss might be traveling? I live in Houston and I'm cautiously optimistic for the rain but also a little concerned about flooding. Boy we haven't said that word in a long time:)
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1183. AllStar17
2:35 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
TD 4-E has formed.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1182. RitaEvac
2:32 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
getting better looking this low northeast of the tropical storm!!


WOW! we may have 2 storms at once! and then merge into a superstorm and affect the fish!

WOW
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1180. wolftribe2009
2:28 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting Jax82:
visible loop.



looks to be banding to me. The eastern side is pretty well organized. This is going to be a small hurricane if it doesn't get any bigger. That is IF it becomes a hurricanes.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
1178. Orcasystems
2:25 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1176. AtHomeInTX
2:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting Patrap:


That be da plan.


Yep. Just give it a day Txjac. :)

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE ACRS SE TX.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
1175. Vincent4989
2:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's gone from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana, it might as well come on over to TX and meander around for a few days

I think i heard the texans saying this:
(in a high pitched cute voice) YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.