Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....
might as well throw in Bermuda to the mix
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Quoting AlabamaWx85:
Bret is a fish storm. Not affecting any land other than Marine life.
Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting emcf30:
Taz, How ya doing this morning. Hows the weather out West.





doing well
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if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That may be a bit more accurate... lol

Sorry, Taz. I don't have him on ignore, and didn't realize you did. I also wanted to make sure he is posting the correct information. People won't learn and do better if we just let them keep posting the same wrong information.





thats ok the reson i have in on there be come


A he is name spaming the blogs with new names of the same name


B he all say things that storms will go out too sea wish is not all ways right and it annyoing


and C i have 13 of his names on there
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1020. emcf30
Taz, How ya doing this morning. Hows the weather out West.
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Quoting AlabamaWx85:
Bret is a fish storm. Not affecting any land other than Marine life.


Check again, it has been affecting the Bahamas for half a day.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
east coast will be sAfe for the next two weeks from any hurricanes or tropical storms
That may be a bit more accurate... lol

Quoting Tazmanian:






wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoting jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoting is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoting him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned
Sorry, Taz. I don't have him on ignore, and didn't realize you did. I also wanted to make sure he is posting the correct information. People won't learn and do better if we just let them keep posting the same wrong information.


Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
in your own mind its not a fish it will be a fish in mind dont forget walkers cay (major pit stop for boats coming in from the north)
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1013. emcf30
Hey Baha, Are there any people living on any of the Islands that Brett went over that you know of ?
Carters Cay, Old Yankee Cay, Tops Cay, Strangers Cay

I have been fishing many times on the canyon ridge just WNW of that location. The water is deep there well over 1000 ft. A;ways have a blast.
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1012. GetReal



Interesting spin near Bay St. Louis, MS. Luckily this is not 100 miles further south in GOM.
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I added a couple of local reports re: Bret to my blog, if anybody's interested. Seems Abaconians were pretty much caught off guard. Still haven't heard any word from the northern cays as yet.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
still really early I have a felling august and september going to crank it up a notch are two
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1008. HCW
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Jason. It can't be a fish storm anymore. It already hit The Bahamas.






wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoteing jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoteing is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoteing him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
its going to be a fish storm!! i think we are going to see a few fish storms this year
Jason. It can't be a fish storm anymore. It already hit The Bahamas.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
1001. emcf30

The two lows. The one over the Southern US coast is creating some havoc this morning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
556 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LONG BEACH...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 550 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE NEAR PASS CHRISTIAN...OR NEAR BAY ST.
LOUIS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
its going to be a fish storm!! i think we are going to see a few fish storms this year


I think so too, don't think it will be a year of the fish though do you? j/k
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Quoting emcf30:
Better news for Japan as Ma-On continues to weaken ( 85 kts )with a cloud filled eye and a fragmented eyewall. Ma-On has struggled since the attempt of a eyewall replacement cycle which is seamed to have failed. It is projected to maintain minimum Typhoon strength as it passes South of Tokyo.





Glad to hear the continued weakening trend in place. I hope this means coastal Japan just gets a brush with only TS force winds and low surge impacting.

Quoting emcf30:
ECMWF Next week. Continues to develop wave.

I wish ESMWF would quit... I feel like I have a bullseye painted on my back...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
ECMWF Next week. Continues to develop wave.

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Im not big on the "only if a major cane" talk.... I expect it to meander near the northern bahamas with little movement. And if anything has trended stronger this year than forecast, it is ridge strength. Im not discounting a hard left turn in 48-72 hours regardless of intensity. The best forecast seems to be out to sea, but that forecast is subject to huge errors: Sheared storms are the hardest to forecast. Despite what the shear maps show, Bret is a sheared storm in a less than Barotropic environment with a stalled frontal boundary nearby that could throw a wrench into any forecast. I'd go along with the NHC for now, but I guarantee you they are less than confident.
edit
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

^HPC chunked the frontal boundary, but I'd still wager there is still some airmass differences near Bret regardless of a defined front. Midlevel dry air is an indicator of this.
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Well looks like their is some convection forming over the COC this morning. Looks like I am cheering for a fish storm, based on the steering conversations, only chance for a CONUS landfall is if it bombs to Cat 2/3. Don't want that.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

ANOTHER BIG WAVE AGAIN!
I bet the sal will kill it.
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Better news for Japan as Ma-On continues to weaken ( 85 kts )with a cloud filled eye and a fragmented eyewall. Ma-On has struggled since the attempt of a eyewall replacement cycle which is seamed to have failed. It is projected to maintain minimum Typhoon strength as it passes South of Tokyo.





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I diagree. the shear over bret is higher than 5 knots, satellite suggests atleast 15 knots. Seems like as the storm slides east, assuming it doesnt gain much latitude, shear will relax a bit. Sustained convection will also help as high pressure builds in at the upper levels.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:

ANOTHER BIG WAVE AGAIN!
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Yeh, jasonweatherman2011, be ?ironic?sardonic? if 2 or more NamedStorms popped up within the week after the "...no tropical systems are expected to develop through 23Apr..." pronouncement from officialdom. Especially if hurricanes appear.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
THIS WAKE ME UP THIS MORNING

SHOCKINGLY HUGE!
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Was curious whether any tropical storm force winds are occurring in the Bahamas. According to Wunderground, the Elbow Cay Abaco station reported a wind speed of 48.3 mph at 12:23 am and winds have been mostly between 25-40 mph for the last several hours.
This sounds about right. I just missed the 6 a.m. radio update :o(, but seems they are expecting winds around 20 kts to affect much of the NW Bahamas today, along with some heavy showers. I'll try to catch the 7 a.m. update to see what else is being reported. We may get some live reports from Abaco then.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting Vincent4989:

You mean the shear around Bret? dude, shear is very very very very very very low, say, 5 knots.
I will take that, TYVM.... according to NHC that's enough to tilt the low and mid circulation which is disrupting Bret and retarding development somewhat...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting MississippiWx:


Think they just had to update quickly. If they find evidence of anything higher, I'm sure they'll update. The main thing is that they issued the proper tropical storm warnings. Probably a little late, though. LOL.
Not surprised by this. Once things got going again, they had to upgrade.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, I agree. Warnings should've been posted since the first advisory IMO.
They were posted. At the time, the TS watch was quite appropriate.

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:

1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH
Not surprised to see this one come together. They got a factory over there on the El Salvador side...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
ATCF (every 6hours)
06pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 156.0degrees(~SouthSouthEast)
12amGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w , 167.4degrees(~midway SSE and dueSouth)

NHC (every 3hours)
09pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 90degrees(dueEast)
12amGMTto03amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w , 90degrees(dueEast)
03pmGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w , 180degrees(dueSouth)
06amGMTto09amGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w , 69.5degrees(~EastNorthEast)

Copy&paste 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w, pbi, fpo, 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w, 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning all.

Well, the thunder woke me up about 5 minutes ago... lol

Looks like Bret's been growing, as expected, with the approach to Dmax... I be a few Bahamians out there who haven't been following the wx are going to be so SURPRISED.... :o)




Only thing I want to add for now is... thank goodness for shear and dry air!


You mean the shear around Bret? dude, shear is very very very very very very low, say, 5 knots.
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The other interesting imagery is



Most of northern Abaco is getting some TS force winds now, and we're likely to get some gusts during the course of the day here.

Whoohoo for Monday morning....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting ackee:
I know we all focusing on Bret But any thoughts on ECMWF run that show TD#3 OR possble a TS

Yup, I still doubt that would be our first hurricane.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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