Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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What the heck, I go on a vacation weekend and Bret forms? Seriously, I thought that only happens when Dr. Jeff Masters goes on vacation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:


I don't want to get into a conversation about people on here, but +1 to those who think what I think about J.
Quoting Tazmanian:




sorry too do this but am going too start poofing you guys that Quote him


your the 1st poof
Taz, don't let it stress you out. Live and let live.

I have to give Jase credit; he has improved a LOT since Taz first put him on ignore. Which is why I don't blame Taz for the way he feels. OTOH, I can't put Jase on ignore because of how bad he USED to be.

So Taz, don't let it stress you out, man. Give the guy credit for trying to get better, and be glad most of the quotes are of the stuff from NHC...

Last word on this.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Is it just me or is the East pacific on Hyper Mode?


Its just you, last year's June EPAC was hyper mode as they already had the 'D' storm in June. This year its spread out more.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I understand and I sometimes state a year will be like another but for good reason. I find this year to be close to 2005 but without the storms we had by this point in 2005. We can't forget that we have had a lot of invests

There was an area that in the eastern gulf that almost became "Arlene" in early june. Imagine that! We would have than had Bret near Mexico and Cindy now sitting off Flodia instead of Bret. Than you could point your finger at the series of waves coming off Africa which look to be the "BIG storms coming (Dennis and Emily 2005).

So yeah I still think it is odd.


I still think 97L was a TC as well.
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

yes,in Poland

of course excluding factories
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you mean the worng info he all way yells fish or this will be like last year or things like that


I understand and I sometimes state a year will be like another but for good reason. I find this year to be close to 2005 but without the storms we had by this point in 2005. We can't forget that we have had a lot of invests

There was an area that in the eastern gulf that almost became "Arlene" in early june. Imagine that! We would have than had Bret near Mexico and Cindy now sitting off Flodia instead of Bret. Than you could point your finger at the series of waves coming off Africa which look to be the "BIG storms coming (Dennis and Emily 2005).

So yeah I still think it is odd.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

yes,in Poland


Sound like the old days in the 60's and 70's when the Communist Party was rationing stuff over there if you ask me.............BTW, Good Morning Everyone.
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Quoting hcubed:


Unfortunately, there are a lot of posters who think if it isn't a Cat 5 over their house, then it's not important.


Yet another +1, and when a hurricane actually does strike the US they all claim that they didn't want that to happen.
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?



your brother can turn the power off to the whole country???

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1065. HCW
I still think that it is wrong that LIX tornado warns waterspouts when they are much weaker and almost never cause damage. MOB nws will never issue warnings accept marine warnings for waterspouts unless it's a tornado over the water :)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
PolishHurrMaster:
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?


In Poland?

yes,in Poland
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lol where is press at?

I wanted to ask him if it is the same with North and South Dekota? Do people there ask "which Dekota"
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
1062. hcubed
Quoting BahaHurican:
Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....


Unfortunately, there are a lot of posters who think if it isn't a Cat 5 over their house, then it's not important.
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1061. emcf30
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Do not rule out Bermuda.


Very true. Definitely something to watch out for.
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PolishHurrMaster:
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?


In Poland?
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i wish they re move the Quote
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
1058. ncstorm
06z GFDL is predicting a Category 2 hurricane from Bret??

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


looks to me like he is breaking away from the front finally. Sucking in the moisture from around him.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
WunderBloggers,my brother told me about his crazy plan:for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electrity off,in whole country!
What you think about it?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
You had to have been there...


I don't want to get into a conversation about people on here, but +1 to those who think what I think about J.
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Quoting emcf30:
The center of Bret is currently .92 miles off of Yankee Cay and Carter Cay after passing over those Islands and .83 miles from Big Carters Cay. Not to mention all the Islands to the North of the current location. Therefore no Fish Storm for Bret


Do not rule out Bermuda.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. maybe a tropical depression soon for the Eastern Pacific


Is it just me or is the East pacific on Hyper Mode?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting wolftribe2009:


eh I don't see your problem with Jason but I actually am fine with him. He always has good information to post.
You had to have been there...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
Tazmanian "i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm"

meh... A nickle per "fish" would give me a nice long vacation, first-class and five-star all the way.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats ok the reson i have in on there be come


A he is name spaming the blogs with new names of the same name


B he all say things that storms will go out too sea wish is not all ways right and it annyoing


and C i have 13 of his names on there


yea I guess I can agree with you on the "fish Storm" thing. Yet, I hear some others say the same. I am not ruling out the storm closer to North Carolina. In fact I am certain it will pass within 200 miles of NC.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting islander101010:
hum were you clicking palm bch blog back in the early 90s? that site was the cornerstone for all these sites developed yrs later
Nope. By "here" I meant Dr. Master's blog. Would have been cool to be blogging back then, though IIRC, this would have had to have been happening on NNTP, i.e. newsgroups. So there was a tropical wx newsgroup at the time Andrew went through????
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
Quoting Tazmanian:






wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoteing jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoteing is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoteing him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned


eh I don't see your problem with Jason but I actually am fine with him. He always has good information to post.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
21N 83W there is some rotation, too close to shore for anything legit to happen though.


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Quoting Tazmanian:
in the mean time 94E went from 60% too 90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Not surprised. This looks really good this morning. I did expect it to take a bit longer, given the monsoonal origin. Isn't this expected to impact Mexico later down in the week?

Quoting Tazmanian:
i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm
Is this what they mean by "wishcasting"? lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not quite sure what you mean by this.... I was here when the fish rule was created...

I can tell you as a Bahamian I know what a fish looks and smells like, whether raw, or cooked [preferably steamed, with peas and grits lol]. Bret is not it.
hum were you clicking palm bch blog back in the early 90s? that site was the cornerstone for all these sites developed yrs later
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
1040. hydrus
And a sign that the Cape Verde season will take off soon...
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1039. hydrus
Heat wave high and very warm water temps in the gulf...
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i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
Quoting hunkerdown:
might as well throw in Bermuda to the mix
Someone was saying they think there's a chance Bermuda might see some action from Bret. I think BWAwx was praying for 2 - 4 inches of rain... ;o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
Quoting emcf30:
The center of Bret is currently .92 miles off of Yankee Cay and Carter Cay after passing over those Islands and .83 miles from Big Carters Cay. Not to mention all the Islands to the North of the current location. Therefore no Fish Storm for Bret
Thanks for the correct details, emcf30. Certainly pple from Fox Town to Walker's Cay have been impacted, and I'm sure those at the eastern end of Grand Bahama along with people as far way as Marsh Harbour have been feeling the impacts.

I am just very glad this storm is a minimal tropical storm. Most of those small cays are relatively lowlying, and storm waves / flooding can do quite a bit of damage. But wind damage there under hurricane conditions is all likely to be formidable...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
Quoting islander101010:
sorry baha the fish rule came into effect long time ago way before taz
Not quite sure what you mean by this.... I was here when the fish rule was created...

Quoting breeezee:
if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol
I can tell you as a Bahamian I know what a fish looks and smells like, whether raw, or cooked [preferably steamed, with peas and grits lol]. Bret is not it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
1032. emcf30
The center of Bret is currently .92 miles off of Yankee Cay and Carter Cay after passing over those Islands and .83 miles from Big Carters Cay. Not to mention all the Islands to the North of the current location. Therefore no Fish Storm for Bret
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Not a fish, it's only a fish to some people because it is not hitting the USA. But the Bahamians are people too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
in the mean time 94E went from 60% too 90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
Quoting emcf30:
Hey Baha, Are there any people living on any of the Islands that Brett went over that you know of ?
Carters Cay, Old Yankee Cay, Tops Cay, Strangers Cay

I have been fishing many times on the canyon ridge just WNW of that location. The water is deep there well over 1000 ft. A;ways have a blast.
I know Walker's and Grand Cays have a few hundred people. Not sure about Strangers and Carter Cays, but I 'd be surprised if not. About 50% of the little cays on the N side of Great and Little Abaco have regular residents.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
sorry baha the fish rule came into effect long time ago way before taz
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Quoting breeezee:
if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol



sorry if this is hiting land like in the BAHAMA its nota fish
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
Quoting BahaHurican:
Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....
might as well throw in Bermuda to the mix
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.