Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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Quoting jeffs713:

linky?

2011 PHS article on Wikipedia and this is the CPC outlook for EPAC
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Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Good Morning, folks!

Looks like Rita and I were wrong and Levi and the models are right, Bret is going out to sea.

I still think Bret will make a run for Cat1, maybe even Cat2 if it can beat back the dry air.


I guess so
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Bret is very small... I wonder if we will see this jump to a cat 1-2 pretty fast because of that... Bret does have good outflow on the west side too


Not sure i see the good outflow on the West side you are seeing.........I see nearly just the opposite as dry air is hitting the west side very strong now.
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Quoting Darren23:
To people bashing Wikipedia, here's the real quote: "On May 19, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season." The CPC is very reliable, and I don't think we should toss it out.

linky?
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Ok. For which basin was this applicable?

The Eastern Pacific... sorry I didn't add that part.
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Bret is very small... I wonder if we will see this jump to a cat 1-2 pretty fast because of that... Bret does have good outflow on the west side too
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Quoting Darren23:
To people bashing Wikipedia, here's the real quote: "On May 19, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season." The CPC is very reliable, and I don't think we should toss it out.


Ok. For which basin was this applicable?
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
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Is it just me or is Jason obsessed with T-waves?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1115. BDAwx
Good morning :)
I've got about 1/3 of an inch so far from the disturbance to the northeast of Bret, and there is rain in the forecast until Friday. I see Bret has indeed strengthened a little from last night - interesting.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Taz, don't let it stress you out. Live and let live.

I have to give Jase credit; he has improved a LOT since Taz first put him on ignore. Which is why I don't blame Taz for the way he feels. OTOH, I can't put Jase on ignore because of how bad he USED to be.

So Taz, don't let it stress you out, man. Give the guy credit for trying to get better, and be glad most of the quotes are of the stuff from NHC...

Last word on this.



Taz does not have him on ignore or he would not be seeing his post......secondly Jason's post is really not that extreme. He actually does a pretty good job and his post are really not far off basis......he wasnt wrong too many times last year when he keep saying fishstorm and most of them was......LOL
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To people bashing Wikipedia, here's the real quote: "On May 19, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season." The CPC is very reliable, and I don't think we should toss it out.
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Here is the summary of the inverese relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific basin, in light of another pending storm in the E-Pac at this time, from one of Klotzbach's recent conference presentations and the link to entire paper below........A good read.

Another relationship that has been noted in previous years but has been documented more thoroughly recently is the inverse relationship between Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity (Lander and Guard 1998, Elsner and Kara 1999, Klotzbach 2006, Wang and Lee 2009, Collins 2010, Wang and Lee 2010). When Atlantic activity is heightened, eastern North Pacific activity tends to be reduced and vice versa. Wang and Lee (2009) demonstrate an out-of-phase relationship between the two basins and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell et al. 2000). They demonstrate that this relationship is likely due to the fact that same-signed upper-level wind anomalies act to increase vertical wind shear in one basin while reducing it in the other basin, due to the fact that climatological upper-level winds are westerly in the Atlantic, while they are easterly in the eastern North Pacific.

Link
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1107 Vincent4989 "I'm saying that the EPAC season can become active"

Ah, the EPAC... Most of us think of the Atlantic when "the season" is mentioned without naming the storm basin.
Still think the quotation of the odds is wrong -- I think they were a bit higher -- but not enough wrong to give Wiki a fail.
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Quoting P451:
Fish storm? Jeez give it a rest people.

We get it, if it's not a Cat 5 heading for South Florida or NOLA then it is a fish storm. It's a stupid storm. There's nothing there. There was no reason to name it. The NHC doesn't know what it's doing. Etc.

Some awfully close minded folks on here. I get the feeling this blog would be non-existent if NOLA and SFLA were to cease to exist.

Sad, really..that if something isn't threatening those two regions or the Lesser Antilles nobody cares to discuss them and when they do they downplay their significance to that of a random cloud in the middle of nowhere.

I nickname you people "The World is Flat Crew" because that's about the level of thinking you display when you make "fish storm" claims.

I shouldn't be surprised...you're probably the same folks that declared Igor and Earl of last season "Fish Storms".

:/


Don't fret folks...........just getting a rant off until the new blog entry. :)





These are the folks that preferred to wish-cast a pre-season monsoon low in the NW Caribbean (93L) over paying attention to a gorgeous annular Cat4 hurricane in the EPAC (Adrian).
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324
1109. HCW
Quoting breeezee:
this low on the La,Ms line is banding ,we just had a squall come thru gonzales with heavy rain and wind,we are in between NO and baton rouge


Highway 90 at Gulfport,MS is now closed due to that line
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Geez, dewey, u r getting more wx from Bret than I am...

Hey, it's 9 a.m. and I gotta run... will check in later as time permits.

Ya'll be good now...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21913
Quoting MrstormX:


How is it a fail, when the season is not even over yet?

I'm saying that the EPAC season can become active, not going to a 2010 EPAC season.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Good Morning, folks!

Looks like Rita and I were wrong and Levi and the models are right, Bret is going out to sea.

I still think Bret will make a run for Cat1, maybe even Cat2 if it can beat back the dry air.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324
this low on the La,Ms line is banding ,we just had a squall come thru gonzales with heavy rain and wind,we are in between NO and baton rouge
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1079 Vincent4989 "The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season."

Which scientists and for which year?
If 2011, everybody quote-worthy said it'd probably be slightly-above-normal to above-normal. And the fringers are best ignored as the type who're panicking at the "coming IceAge".
I'd say that Wiki failed to toss out a bad posting, and should permanently toss out whoever posted it.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Eastern Pacific.
So this upcoming storm is the C or D storm, right? [I'm thinking C.]

Now I am trying to figure out how the current activity constitutes epic fail on the part of forecasters. I was just thinking this morning that this may be the last major gasp for EPac for a while, if the projected forecast for the ATL verifies. The Twaves that have been sparking EPac development just won't make it to the EPac the same way.

With the EPac, four storms from May to July do not guarantee an above average season...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21913
On a weather note, with the E-Pac firing up again and Bret headed out to sea, we may see another lull on the Atlantic side until we see what happens with that wave out in the CATl in a few days (per one of the models noted below)....The ITCZ still not quite up where it needs to be (around 7N) but should be another story in about 4 weeks. I've seen it happen over and over again for the last several years. Nothwithstanting a few storms in June or July, things quiet down for a little bit around late-July/early August, then Mother Nature "throws the switch" and the "viable" wave train starts in earnest around late August as the final pieces for the heart of the season fall into place.
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1096. Aye mate, but the sad part is its usually the same people every year who do it, and is not a representation of the blog. Bret affected the Bahamas, hence forth it lost its fish status.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23908
Quoting breeezee:
come on people this is like a really bad tstorm to the bahamas I bet the tide didn,t go above normal .OK in reallity its not a fish but it not even a strong TS,and hopefully it will stay that way
All true, for which Bahamians are grateful. We've had the wonderful experience of having a strengthening TS Katrina sweep through our waters at a time when most people didn't even realize there was a TC in the area; glad not to have a repeat with Bret.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21913
Quoting BahaHurican:
So YOU are the cause of this TS formation!!! Never go on vacation in July again!

LOL
Quoting wolftribe2009:


lol do NOT go on vacation again for the next three months or you might come back to a CAT 4-5

I'll be in school in a month anyway, so OK!
lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bret is struggling with dry air this AM, shouldn't get any stronger than 60 mph over the next few days and has begun its turn out to sea, so no real threat to land in the next few days. However, the status is 2-0-0, it is possible that we might see Cindy by the last few days of the month.


(ECMWF, system off Florida going out to sea, system in the GOMEX 240 hours, very long range)

00z GGEM/CMC. Same system that the ECMWF shows off Florida in 204 hours though, stronger, and farther away from the coast.
Link


OH CRAP! "Cindy" storm headed right into my backyard in the Panhandle *Dislike*

*I am serious thinking about the possibly of having to spank Cindy*
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Quoting BahaHurican:
What season is this again?


Eastern Pacific.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23908
Quoting Vincent4989:
From Wikipedia:
The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season.
EPIC FAIL
What season is this again?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21913
Quoting aspectre:
1055 PolishHurrMaster "...my brother told me about his crazy plan: for 4 hours every day(2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electricity off,in whole country!"

Who's "he"? If you're talking about Kan, he doesn't have much choice. 2/3ds of Japan's nuclear electricity-generating power-plants have been offline for failure to fully comply with safety standards. (Behaviour that used to be indulged with a "tell us when you fix the problem" has been grounds for shutdown since the GreatTohokuEarthquake)
And only one nuclear generating station has passed muster to be restarted. (Don't remember how many power-plants it contains.)

Action:
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Member Since: sierpień 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1871




'he' is my brother,he told me that if he were for example despotic ruler,he would introduce this.
Of course in Poland.
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Sorry for my non-sequiter, PolishHurrMaster, your answer popped up while I was typing a reply.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What the heck, I go on a vacation weekend and Bret forms? Seriously, I thought that only happens when Dr. Jeff Masters goes on vacation.


lol do NOT go on vacation again for the next three months or you might come back to a CAT 4-5
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Quoting hcubed:


Unfortunately, there are a lot of posters who think if it isn't a Cat 5 over their house, then it's not important.
Yeah, the Caribbean and Bahamas archipelagos are only speed bumps on the way to FL.... lol and FL is only a speed bump on the way to the Gulf coast.... lol lol

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What the heck, I go on a vacation weekend and Bret forms? Seriously, I thought that only happens when Dr. Jeff Masters goes on vacation.
So YOU are the cause of this TS formation!!! Never go on vacation in July again!

LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21913
come on people this is like a really bad tstorm to the bahamas I bet the tide didn,t go above normal .OK in reallity its not a fish but it not even a strong TS,and hopefully it will stay that way
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Quoting Vincent4989:
From Wikipedia:
The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season.
EPIC FAIL


How is it a fail, when the season is not even over yet?
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Bret is struggling with dry air this AM, shouldn't get any stronger than 60 mph over the next few days and has begun its turn out to sea, so no real threat to land in the next few days. However, the status is 2-0-0, it is possible that we might see Cindy by the last few days of the month.


(ECMWF, system off Florida going out to sea, system in the GOMEX 240 hours, very long range)

00z GGEM/CMC. Same system that the ECMWF shows off Florida in 204 hours though, stronger, and farther away from the coast.
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23908
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its just you, last year's June EPAC was hyper mode as they already had the 'D' storm in June. This year its spread out more.


Ok I was just wondering. I haven't paid much attention to the E.Pac and so it was impressive to me to see them working on another storm already.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sound like the old days in the 60's and 70's when the Communist Party was rationing stuff over there if you ask me.............BTW, Good Morning Everyone.

Not these times,rather early to mid-80s
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From Wikipedia:
The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season.
EPIC FAIL
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1055 PolishHurrMaster "...my brother told me about his crazy plan: for 4 hours every day (2 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon) he will turn the electricity off,in whole country!"

Who's "he"? If you're talking about Kan's rolling blackouts, he doesn't have much choice.
2/3ds of Japan's nuclear electricity-generating power-plants have been offline for failure to fully comply with safety standards. (Behaviour that used to be indulged with a "tell us when you fix the problem" has been grounds for shutdown since the GreatTohokuEarthquake)
And only one nuclear generating station has passed muster to be restarted. (Don't remember how many power-plants it contains.)
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Quoting FLdewey:
Blog firing on all cylinders today?


Nope :)
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Quoting BobinTampa:



your brother can turn the power off to the whole country???


Not exactly now,but he would introduce this if he would be able to
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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