Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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IT'S.
NOT.
BAKER.
COUNTY.
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272. Ylee
Well, whichever way TD2 goes or becomes, there should be good surfing in Cocoa Beach......
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as the light fades darkness comes

T.C.F.W.
02L/TD/B/CX
MARK
27.77N/77.67W
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


thats the wave the ECMWF develops
Already looks well on the way and further north than previous waves. Don't think that one would head for the Caribbean.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Frank is clearly a troll, and has resembled that behavior. Ignore him.
Tf, having a little humor especially when the tropics are "relatively" slow is not trollish behavior. You brought up the topic and I will answer your insult. Throwing around the T word is of itself a prime sign of a troll and telling others who they should or should not ignore is just plain childish and bullying.Have a good one.
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Quoting aquak9:
Keeper, Keeper, Keeper...please help.



Aquak, I will send some of that water we have had (and we've had bunches of it) over to you, you really are desperate.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



We better keep a good eye on this one.


thats the wave the ECMWF develops
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..somewhere, ova da Rainbow..

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Okay..the 18Z GFS has TD2 off to the north but has another low going south down the east coast..pretty much a tag team..how will that work if the ridge is supposed to be sending TD2 north..wouldnt the other low feel the same effects?

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15045
Short tropical update...suggestions as to what to do to make the site better are all welcome as well. Link
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We better keep a good eye on this one.
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I do like the Godfather series,as well as the ReinFather ones on youtube..

Specially round Xmas..

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Quoting Guaricandilla2011:
Did the 18z-GFS run show anything meaningful?


Not really, the GFS is still refusing to accept the existence of TD2.
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Kiss the ring Pat. j/k
Your marine ring means more to me.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

I dont understand why I was reported just explaining someone how the recon gets a center fix and then finding it again but in a different location.
He said he was just kidding.
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Quoting Guaricandilla2011:
Guys, if anything, Bret was yet another test, run course for what's to come. I cannot wait for the cat 3s, 4s, and 5s to begin to form, ^_^. Hopefully the pumping of ridge will drive them towards us.


Hi JFV, welcome back to the blog.


SARCASM FLAG:ON
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Quoting VirgilSolozzo:
Avila's the best forecaster the NHC has, imo.
His opinion carries the most "weight" in the house.
.


I met him the day after QuickSCAT failed in Nov 2009

Don Avila, I value your gifted opinion above all others present..save for the Ghosts of Mets past..
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Quoting Guaricandilla2011:
Guys, if anything, Bret was yet another test, run course for what's to come. I cannot wait for the cat 3s, 4s, and 5s to begin to form, ^_^. Hopefully the pumping of ridge will drive them towards us.


And a good test run to update my ignore list.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you reported him for that? LMAO!!!


Frank is clearly a troll, and has resembled that behavior. Ignore him.
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Looks like maybe, the CoC is shrinking down into a newer center as the Sun is Low on da Horizon..



If itsa gonna get the ol Column Built tonights a good environ to do it.
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Avila's the best forecaster the NHC has, imo.
His opinion carries the most "weight" in the house.
.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL, so is he up for the 8 p.m.?



I afraid to answer dat un.

I'll defer to presslord, he's older..,er, I mean,wiser.



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Where o' where is TD 2?

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you reported him for that? LMAO!!!
Jk
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Quoting Guaricandilla2011:
Guys, if anything, Bret was yet another test, run course for what's to come. I cannot wait for the cat 3s, 4s, and 5s to begin to form, ^_^. Hopefully the pumping of ridge will drive them towards us.

Dr, pumping the ridge brought down another famous blogger and led to his insanity.
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brb
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
After presslord's post, I'm kinda sorry I said 232... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Be back later....
Everyone play nice, and use a lot of troll spray when needed! Also don't forget to check for an update often, and don't go nuts forecasting non likely solutions...



:o) For taco.... lol
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Quoting Parkay:
The hurricane hunters wind map almost looks like it is showing two COCs. Or am I reading it wrong?


To get things right they aren't two coc's,its just the movement of the coc between the last postion and the current one.

REPORTED


you reported him for that? LMAO!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
I like Lixion Avila,,he has moxie..
LOL, so is he up for the 8 p.m.?

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Quoting Levi32:
Possible decoupling of TD 2's surface center may be underway as it drifts SSW with the current surface flow, while the thunderstorms and the mid-level circulation drift eastward.

GOES-13 Rapid-scan visible loop of TD 2


Shows up better here.
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..somewhere in Se. La. a Cajun is sippin chicory & Coffee blushing..
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Quoting presslord:
218....dear Lord: please don't let me say what I'm thinkin'

rofl
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Quoting Patrap:
98L has a blinker on, but will it Bob, den weave ?


Hmmm, hmmmmm,..?
It could. There's a slew of posibbilities. I think the NHC solution is most likely, but hmmmmmmmmmmmm?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.