Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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Quoting RitaEvac:


It's gone from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana, it might as well come on over to TX and meander around for a few days

I think i heard the texans saying this:
(in a high pitched cute voice) YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Typhoon Ma-on is continuing its gradual curvature while heading toward the Japanese coastline

A short landfall is predicted to cross southernmost Wakayama a bit west of SHM airport
before Ma-on heads westward out into the ocean

Copy&paste 21.1n137.9e, 21.8n137.1e, 22.7n136.3e, 23.4n135.6e, 24.4n134.6e-25.2n133.8e, 25.2n133.8e-26.0n133.4e, 26.0n133.4e-27.0n133.2e, 27.0n133.2e-28.3n133.2e, koj, shm, hnd, sdj into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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1172. Patrap
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Quoting Patrap:
The Louisiana/Miss Low has more "Oomph" than Bret easily..as well as convecvtion.

WestBank here got over 6 in this am already from it.



It's gone from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana, it might as well come on over to TX and meander around for a few days
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
1170. hcubed
Quoting Vincent4989:
Is it just me or is Jason obsessed with T-waves?


From looking at all the names on my ignore list, he's more obsessed with his name, and trying to find new ways to stay off of the lists.

At least he's easy to spot...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Not sure i see the good outflow on the West side you are seeing.........I see nearly just the opposite as dry air is hitting the west side very strong now.


Looks like outflow with the dry air invading the level under the outflow. Sort of like mid level dry air working in. Didn't we have a storm last year that had dry air undercutting the outflow?
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1168. Patrap
The Louisiana/Miss Low has more "Oomph" than Bret easily..as well as convecvtion.

WestBank here got over 6 in this am already from it.

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FYI.Cloud burst 2011 is our old buddy stormtop,or am i the only one that noticed that.But anyway nice to see you Lenny and think you could be right.
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The tropics are quiet, and none of the reliable models predict development for the next 7 days.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting bwi:
Good Morning. I wonder if Bret strengthens and gets larger and sits off the coast for a while, if the circulation could help draw some cooler/cleaner air down in to the mid-atlantic states? Our forecast here in Maryland for later this week and this coming weekend literally stinks: temps near 100f, light west winds, poor air quality. Would love to get another strong cold front instead of weeks of midwestern air stagnation!


Unlikely. there isnt any cool air to the north thru the weekend. crank up the AC.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
big trough is going to be on the east coast again!!




I wouldn't put much faith in a forecast beyond 5 days, with days 4 & 5 being highly speculative. There's no reason to go out further than that except to show you what could be. There is no guarantee of a trough on the coast next Sunday.
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hot tower developing on Bret?

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1161. Patrap
Quoting txjac:


Pat, when you are done with it send it to Texas ...


That be da plan.
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1159. Levi32
Let's not forget about Ma-on closing in on Japan...though dry air did a bigger number on this storm than even I expected. This is great news for the people of Japan, and hopefully this storm doesn't turn out to be a major damaging event.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1158. txjac
Quoting Patrap:
The Low spiraling thru Se. La. and Southern Miss is a welcome sight.


Pat, when you are done with it send it to Texas ...
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1155. Patrap
The Low spiraling thru Se. La. and Southern Miss is a welcome sight.
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1154. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Bret
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Bret is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of activity. The EPAC is likely to get a storm and the tropical waves need to be watched much more closely now.
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Quoting Patrap:
thats the same radar i was trying to post but cant figure out how, I'm a newbie at that stuff, but anyways i couldn't help but notice how everything is rotating. We have been needing this sooo bad in south MS. wildfires and Running sprinklers every night gets old.
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And everything is copacetic once again
ATCF (every 6hours)
06pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 156.0degrees(~SouthSouthEast)
12amGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w , 167.4degrees(~midway SSE&dueSouth)
06amGMTto12pmGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.4n77.5w , 56.0degrees(~midwayEastNorthEast&NorthEast)

NHC (every 3hours)
09pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 90degrees(dueEast)
12amGMTto03amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w , 90degrees(dueEast)
03pmGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w , 180degrees(dueSouth)
06amGMTto09amGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w , 69.5degrees(~EastNorthEast)
09amGMTto12pmGMT : 27.2n77.7w-27.4n77.5w , 41.7degrees(~NorthEast)

Copy&paste 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.4n77.5w, pbi, fpo, 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w, 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w, 27.2n77.7w-27.4n77.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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what up TS??,got some tropical downpours big time yesterday....this yrs pattern so far looks identical to last yrs,it cannot be denied,only time will tell,our area is protected,the DOD aint gonna let it happen,lol(TPA bubble)
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1149. Levi32
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Nice update, Levi ... hope you'll continue to do these when the season is in full swing! We'd have loved to have Bret come visit as a weak TS here in SW Florida, but I for one suspect he'd have become a beast if he'd gotten loose in the Gulf. And we got some pretty hefty showers here yesterday anyway.

A question for you and/or anyone else out there: With the dominant hot High over the Central US so strong and so long, do we have a realistic shot and this thing getting out of here before mid- or late fall? I kinda shuddered when you pointed out the compressing air it is shoving down toward Georgia and Florida. Last year was already really dry for us here in the Cape, and this year's been terribly dry. I'm not hoping for a nasty hurricane season, but I for one would sure like to see this drought pattern get broken.


Well as I have told everyone that asks about this, in similar years to 2011, that ridge usually is strong down over the south through July, but lifts a bit northward during August-October, allowing the height of the hurricane season to threaten the north gulf coast. This year has followed the analogs pretty closely so far. Whether it continues to do that, I can't really say, especially since this entire ENSO cycle has been strange so far over North America. The seasonal model forecasts all support above-average precipitation near the coast, so I would say there's a decent chance that a few people get soaked by a tropical cyclone this season.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1148. Patrap
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gotta run...........everyone have a great day!
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And by Sunday the ridge stretches halfway into the GOM. Have to see how it all plays out. There is a weakness noted to the NE of Puerto Rico in the C-ATL.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The ECMWF and CMC both develop that wave in the future, 204-240 hours out.


Yep that is the one we better start watching......its my most concern now..........not Bret! Bret might have already peaked out.
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Nice update, Levi ... hope you'll continue to do these when the season is in full swing! We'd have loved to have Bret come visit as a weak TS here in SW Florida, but I for one suspect he'd have become a beast if he'd gotten loose in the Gulf. And we got some pretty hefty showers here yesterday anyway.

A question for you and/or anyone else out there: With the dominant hot High over the Central US so strong and so long, do we have a realistic shot and this thing getting out of here before mid- or late fall? I kinda shuddered when you pointed out the compressing air it is shoving down toward Georgia and Florida. Last year was already really dry for us here in the Cape, and this year's been terribly dry. I'm not hoping for a nasty hurricane season, but I for one would sure like to see this drought pattern get broken.
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CDO. Is. Collapsing.
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If that product is showing nil convergence with a tropical cyclone then it is simply incorrect. Strange that it isnt showing up though. Maybe due to the LLC's small size?
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TS Bret Update and the Rest of the Tropics
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
be next weekend on sunday big trough is going to be on the east coast again!!


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Quoting TampaSpin:


Still little to NO Convergence with Bret.........but look coming off the Africa Coast.........that looks really good........that area for sure needs to be watched.


The ECMWF and CMC both develop that wave in the future, 204-240 hours out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579


Still little to NO Convergence with Bret.........but look coming off the Africa Coast.........that looks really good........that area for sure needs to be watched.
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MDR getting moist. Should be prime for development in the coming weeks. To say this year will have storms track to mexico and cape Verde storms recurve all year is just putting crow in their mouths. Chances are the CONUS gets hit....
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Quoting stillwaiting:
this year seems familar,???,all the stroms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!


Things that make you go Hmmmmm!
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Morning All.


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Updated and reflects the shear better .... Not 5 knots of shear like some have suggested.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
this year seems familar,???,all the storms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!



You just jinxed us big time you butthead.......LOL........hey bro!
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1130. Levi32
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, July 18th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1129. bwi
Good Morning. I wonder if Bret strengthens and gets larger and sits off the coast for a while, if the circulation could help draw some cooler/cleaner air down in to the mid-atlantic states? Our forecast here in Maryland for later this week and this coming weekend literally stinks: temps near 100f, light west winds, poor air quality. Would love to get another strong cold front instead of weeks of midwestern air stagnation!
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Quoting stillwaiting:
this year seems familar,???,all the stroms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!
might be setting up for a charlie unusual looking tw way out there 22n
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this year seems familar,???,all the storms go into yucatan area the mex and the atlantic tcs all recurve off the eastcoast due to the troughs digging into the SE,just like last yr the conus is safe from landfall imo,haarp will keep'em away!
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Quoting jeffs713:

linky?

2011 PHS article on Wikipedia and this is the CPC outlook for EPAC
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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