Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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I am on a tug heading south to Ft. Lauderdale with an 80,000 barrel oil barge. I am keeping an eye on this as well. I currently have a steady 6’ swell out of the ENE and winds of 15 – 20 knots also out of the ENE. Just thought I would give you some local observations while I am here. Expect to be off Cape Canaveral at 0600 on the 18th and Ft. Lauderdale around 0700 on the 19th.

Time: 1950
Position: 29 30.08 N 81 03.08 W
4 nm East of Flagler Beach, FL.
Course: 156 True
Speed: 6.6 Knots
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zOh my gosh it's a tropical storm now!
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


ok I haven't come across that information. Last update sowed it was a TD at 5 PM. It could be a TS but it sure doesn't look like much to me. I have been jumping on the system since last week but something seems "fishy" to me.I just can't figure it out yet on what it is?


According to the nhc it is a TS now, but I know what you mean. It is not by any means "pretty", but the circulation is there.
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Quoting MrstormX:
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS...BECOMES THE SECOND TROPICAL
STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...



Where are you finding that? NOAA hurricane site is still stuck on TD
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Hi JFV, welcome back to the blog.


SARCASM FLAG:ON


Tropic,

Who let JFV back in the blog? someone asleep at the controls? LOL! J/k
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We've got Bret, just one of many surprises that will probably happen this season.
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Quoting pbeachbaby:
I have a comment, is this a forum if you will for weather forecasters only ? There seems to be some opinions and alot of talk of trolls etc. I get the feeling alot of kids are on here which is great but there is alot of rudeness I see when others such as myself ask questions and return comments are rude.I thought wrongly perhaps this was discussion group. I will find another group to learn from.

I am not a forecaster nor a weather geek. But if you can stay put for a season you will learn and understand tropical weather as I have.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Hi JFV, welcome back to the blog.


SARCASM FLAG:ON


Tropic,

Who let JFV back in the blog? someone asleep at the controls? LOL! J/k
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Quoting MrstormX:


Recon confirmed it is a TS hours ago.


ok I haven't come across that information. Last update sowed it was a TD at 5 PM. It could be a TS but it sure doesn't look like much to me. I have been jumping on the system since last week but something seems "fishy" to me.I just can't figure it out yet on what it is?
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Just upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret
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Does anyone know what effect the proximity to land has on a t.s/hurricane track? Thank you in advance. Anyone, Anyone?

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We have Tropical Storm Bret!
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS...BECOMES THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
8:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 17
Location: 27.5°N 78.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: SE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb

2-0-0
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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS...BECOMES THE SECOND TROPICAL
STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

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Quoting wolftribe2009:
I would be surprised if it were upgraded to a TS at 8 PM. The entire system seems to be dealing with a great amount of wind shear or something. I would be more leaning on TS around 5 AM.

Oh and I think most can agree that we don't need any CAT 5 hurricanes beings pushed towards the US. You think 2005 was bad than you have seen nothing yet. A landfalling CAT 5 in the US would be very very bad. I would rather say that I would like the Ridge to push those CAT 4 and CAT 5s away from us :-)

I get excited with storms too but storms like Katrina are scary and heart wrenching. I have a friend who lives in Orlando. I don't think she wants to see one of those storms.


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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How many times will we see the 8:00 p.m. TWO posted?
I'll hold-out for the THREE.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
I would be surprised if it were upgraded to a TS at 8 PM. The entire system seems to be dealing with a great amount of wind shear or something. I would be more leaning on TS around 5 AM.

Oh and I think most can agree that we don't need any CAT 5 hurricanes beings pushed towards the US. You think 2005 was bad than you have seen nothing yet. A landfalling CAT 5 in the US would be very very bad. I would rather say that I would like the Ridge to push those CAT 4 and CAT 5s away from us :-)

I get excited with storms too but storms like Katrina are scary and heart wrenching. I have a friend who lives in Orlando. I don't think she wants to see one of those storms.


Recon confirmed it is a TS hours ago.
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I would be surprised if it were upgraded to a TS at 8 PM. The entire system seems to be dealing with a great amount of wind shear or something. I would be more leaning on TS around 5 AM.

Oh and I think most can agree that we don't need any CAT 5 hurricanes beings pushed towards the US. You think 2005 was bad than you have seen nothing yet. A landfalling CAT 5 in the US would be very very bad. I would rather say that I would like the Ridge to push those CAT 4 and CAT 5s away from us :-)

I get excited with storms too but storms like Katrina are scary and heart wrenching. I have a friend who lives in Orlando. I don't think she wants to see one of those storms.
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Quoting Guaricandilla2011:
We just got one hell of a feeder-band from Bret down here, =).


Its not Bret until the NHC says it is, do not say it before it is official. That will confuse people
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Quoting lurkster:


Cape Hatteras is barely in the cone.
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Quoting FLdewey:
The t-word? LMAO!

This is your fault Water Dawg.
Yes, Nightline did a segment on it. Trolls use the word freely among themselves as a show of closeness and empowerment. When the T word is used in a public setting the user is often a troll or is in danger of getting jumped by real trolls. Bottom line, don't use that word in public.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How many times will I have to see the 8:00 p.m. TWO?


As many times as it takes to get the message across!
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Wondering if this year is gonna be the pop up out of nowhere season for storms !
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How many times will we see the 8:00 p.m. TWO posted?
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I have a comment, is this a forum if you will for weather forecasters only ? There seems to be some opinions and alot of talk of trolls etc. I get the feeling alot of kids are on here which is great but there is alot of rudeness I see when others such as myself ask questions and return comments are rude.I thought wrongly perhaps this was discussion group. I will find another group to learn from.
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Im thinking the nhc will give Bret 45 mph winds, despite recon suggesting it could have 50. Either way Bret, will be born.
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double post sorry!
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261 aquak9 "Keeper, Keeper, Keeper...please help."
No problemo. This is much more painful, which will help you to forget the frustration of...
What were you trying to forget? (I may be overusing that wall.)
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Time: 20:45:00Z
Coordinates: 27.85N 77.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 992.3 mb (~ 29.30 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 188 meters (~ 617 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.1 mb (~ 29.95 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 69° at 39 knots (From the ENE at ~ 44.8 mph)
Air Temp: 18.2°C (~ 64.8°F)
Dew Pt: 17.2°C (~ 63.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 43 mm/hr (~ 1.69 in/hr)
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waiting patiently for 8pm update......
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I agree with you 100% on that. Eyes don't lie.


They can play tricks on you. :D
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Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
i'll say this and then i'll leave you alone again. wayyyy too much model worship going on the last 3-5 years, here and with mets in general, including nhc and nws and local peeps now. they are computers. you are smarter than computers. you have eyes.
I agree with you 100% on that. Eyes don't lie.
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285. BDAwx
I hope I can get some more RAIN!!!
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i'll say this and then i'll leave you alone again. wayyyy too much model worship going on the last 3-5 years, here and with mets in general, including nhc and nws and local peeps now. they are computers. you are smarter than computers. you have eyes.
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Quoting aquak9:
IT'S.
NOT.
BAKER.
COUNTY.
even dumber than he acts, if that is possible
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as the light fades darkness comes


That sounds like a George Carlin hippy-dippy weatherman forecast.
The Doc would appreciate it.
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The question is, when will it make the turn north? Will it even turn north?
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220 SugaCane "Does anyone think it is possible for TD2/Bret to be pulled under that ridge despite model consensus being against that solution"

I gave a possible mechanism for such a momentum shift in comment211, though I can't even guess at whether TD2 will have enough energy to overcome the barrier.
But as Levi32 pointed out in comment216, any move SouthSouthWest may be decoupling TD2's surface center from its convection.
ie If what is now TD2 succeeds in getting past the ridge, it may become exTD2 in the process.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as the light fades darkness comes

T.C.F.W.
02L/TD/B/CX
MARK
27.77N/77.67W
and morning shall follow...
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Tf, having a little humor especially when the tropics are "relatively" slow is not trollish behavior. You brought up the topic and I will answer your insult. Throwing around the T word is of itself a prime sign of a troll and telling others who they should or should not ignore is just plain childish and bullying.Have a good one.


They aren't slow at all, we have a TD out there. You remind me of Dewey.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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