Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Anyone still think of a Fla. east coast crossing?


Good evening, Geoffrey. :)

I'm thinking, no.

It's very pleasant outside, tonight, but I don't see a westerly motion happening. It has been interesting, watching the wind shift and the clouds reacting to the low center spinning up.
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Again.. does anyone know the effect that the proximity to land has on the track of a T.S or Hurricane!
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Contrary to Previous waves from Africa, this one looks that has enough convection to hold together





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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i think at 11pm its will go back to a Tropical Depression


And I say it stays a TS.
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There's a freshening 10kt wind over most of SEFL.
It looks like Bret has picked up some moisture tap running in a band south of Miami that's providing extra oomph from both the Everglades warm waters and extending into the Gulf. I'd like to see Bret get away a bit further east before it gets pinched and starts doing leaup-de-leauxs.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i think at 11pm its will go back to a Tropical Depression
JasonX, I was thinking the same thing. It's not impressive at all.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Thanks to all you who are keeping your eyes on the weather. I have been at sea most of my life but I am not a weatherman. I take the info a weatherman gives me and make decisions based from there. I did suspect a disturbance from the persistent easterly swells but a suspicion was all it was. Anything I can do to help you will ultimately help me.

Thanks again.

P.S. If any of you use vessel tracking services, I am on the tug “East Coast” (not very imaginative is it?) with the barge “Penn 410”. I can also tell you, the majority of the mariners get there weather from this site. Thanks again.
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Ok. I'm confused. Pretty much all of the models show Bret moving out to sea. But when I look at the radar, it looks like it's moving almost the direct opposite direction. It really looks like it wants to cross FL and into the GOM. Can someone explain this to me?
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i think at 11pm its will go back to a Tropical Depression


It does look to be more ragged at the moment, could be shear or Dmin.
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Quoting xcool:
bad call


I cannot second guess the call from NHC, as I am sure they had data this afternoon to call a tropical storm based on wind speeds, but looking at this rapid deterioration at the moment, I am thinking we just wasted a "name" on this one...........
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Uh, you do realize that's JFV... right?
He said he's Cuban (wink) Our only? blogger from there.
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TS Bret Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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18Z


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360. xcool
bad call
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z HWRF 90 hrs





thats pretty close to NC..I find it funny that they are going with the ECWMF guidance when the HWRF and GFDL had this as a TS first?
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Dr Guari, I hope that your country is spared this year. Are you in a drought like your friends in the USA are?


Uh, you do realize that's JFV... right?
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Quoting aquak9:


Isn't it nice? about 4 years ago, maybe five, we used to have a poster who was a helo pilot, who told us when they started evac'ing the rigs in the gulf, and which ones they evac'd. He was part of the flight crew who carried the workers back to land.

It IS really nice to have real folks posting stuff like that.


I remember that Dude.....Ahh, the good old days on the Blog.... :)
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Quoting Guaricandilla2011:
Arlene, a Mexico digger, Bret, a fisher, good God, this trend cannot continue for the remainder of the season, and God willing, it shall not.
Dr Guari, I hope that your country is spared this year. Are you in a drought like your friends in the USA are?
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting NavarreMark:
The rain has finally stopped in Navarre FL. The Trash Can Rain Guage shows that 13.5 inches of rain were received in the last 48 hours.

Cooled things off nicely too. The highest tempature I've recorded today was 76. Thats rare for this time of year.

The system that caused this is slowly moving west through the N GOM. Patrap will feel the effects soon, if he hasn't already.

I'm wonderin if this system will have a cooling effect on the SSTs in the N GOM. That could make a difference later on this season, if a monster were to be unleashed in the GOM.


Any upwelling caused by that system will be transient at best. It takes a lot more than that to appreciably cool off SSTs.
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Anyone still think of a Fla. east coast crossing?
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Quoting coastaltugcaptain:
As long as it is relevant and as long as I keep internet signal, I will try and post another update at 2300 tonight and another by 0700 tomorrow off Cape Canaveral. I really hope it tracks to the ENE. I live in coastal NC. I don’t want it going there either.


Bret looks quite ragged to me at the moment and embedded, again, in the frontal boundry it separated from yesterday so I am thinking it will continue to be swept out to the NE per the current NHC track....God Speed to You and Follow NHC as the Official source as you know........ :)
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18Z HWRF 90 hrs



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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
324. coastaltugcaptain 7:57 PM EDT on July 17, 2011

First time I have ever seen such a post on this Blog. Thank You so much for sharing that info with us.


Isn't it nice? about 4 years ago, maybe five, we used to have a poster who was a helo pilot, who told us when they started evac'ing the rigs in the gulf, and which ones they evac'd. He was part of the flight crew who carried the workers back to land.

It IS really nice to have real folks posting stuff like that.
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I think we have one big season ahead of us based on what we are already seeing out there.
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As long as it is relevant and as long as I keep internet signal, I will try and post another update at 2300 tonight and another by 0700 tomorrow off Cape Canaveral. I really hope it tracks to the ENE. I live in coastal NC. I don’t want it going there either.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Decent looking tropical wave in the antillies.


Yep, what I was looking at...
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We're 5 days ahead of 2010 for our 2nd named storm and nearly a month ahead of 2009, but we're a few weeks behind 2008.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
That area proves itself again to be a breeding ground for tropical systems


and this is not even in the gulf stream..yet
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

I put nevermind post 245
I think we posted about the same time. No problem.
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That area proves itself again to be a breeding ground for tropical systems
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting tropicfreak:


Brings it a little close for comfort to the carolinas, I think all interests in NC should monitor the progress of Bret.


I agree
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INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS...ALONG WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RATHER CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Decent looking tropical wave in the antillies.
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324. coastaltugcaptain 7:57 PM EDT on July 17, 2011

First time I have ever seen such a post on this Blog. Thank You so much for sharing that info with us.
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NOAA updated the sight finally. Well 12 hours ago we had 98L and now we have TS Bret! Don't things change quick?
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Lol i just noticed that the blog pics just auto updated
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Quoting ncstorm:




Brings it a little close for comfort to the carolinas, I think all interests in NC should monitor the progress of Bret.
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TS BRET Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

check the boxes,MSLP,and SST's
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According to my iPhone the center is now 128 miles away instead of 122 miles at 5pm. Seems to be moving away from the SE Florida coast....
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No westerly component as of now.

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Safe travels on the Voyage,, thanks for the real time obs
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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