Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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Quoting neutralenso:
18z gfs shows in 384 hours a cape verder!!!


Take it with a grain of salt for two reasons.

1. It's the GFS.
2. It's 384 hours out, which is really hard to predict.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Lol... agree on the next storm... haven't gone to look @ the actual model runs, but pple keep showing the 240 hr something [ECWMF?] with a huge storm in the GOM and no info on how it got there.... something that big had to have gone through the Car or Bahamas / FL... lo

Been doing that all evening... likely going to check out a Bahama Mama and be a Bahama Breeze for a while... lol




Just got the Graphics updated on the Website for you all..........HUM! Don't really see much out there 240hrs out........1 model means little but, 240hrs is a long time out and is possible to throw a dart and hit the bullseye sometimes.
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Seeing a slight westward component last few frames.

Link
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Quoting Levi32:


You guys have been talking about the one that is just exiting Africa. That one and the one behind it look like they should be watched.


Which one exactly are you referring to?



The one around 30W, the one about to come off Africa, or the one over Nigeria?
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Quoting aspectre:
426 CybrTeddy "...Shuttle landing...Would be neat to land at Edwards, given that's where the first one landed too."

Since one of the Shuttles was destined for a California retirement, would have made more sense to schedule a landing at Edwards. If one of the earlier retirees had been forced to land on the WestCoast, then the last one could have landed on the East.
Woulda saved millions in the prep&fuel needed for a piggyback flight from Canaveral to SoCal.


Actually, Atlantis stays at Kennedy Space Center so it would be easier in a sense to have Atlantis land there. Its Endeavour that goes to California.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Everybody crashed from too much excitement earlier today... plus Bret looks pretty bad right now.... they've all given up on it until Dmax.... lol


It always looks better after a nice long sleep, which is what I'm about to do.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
517. maeko
yup floodzonenc! it's that time of year again. prepare for the worst and hope for the best...but a wee little TS would be welcomed for the rain!
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wolf, not liking the sound of that. Having a storm headed right at us is not good. Especially since some of our worst here in Nassau have been late July - early Aug major storms...
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00Z Dynamic Models..more west trend..



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Quoting BahaHurican:
Lol... agree on the next storm... haven't gone to look @ the actual model runs, but pple keep showing the 240 hr something [ECWMF?] with a huge storm in the GOM and no info on how it got there.... something that big had to have gone through the Car or Bahamas / FL... lo

Been doing that all evening... likely going to check out a Bahama Mama and be a Bahama Breeze for a while... lol



I agree since models 384 hours out from the now (240) hours out were forecasting a major storm to be just north of the Caribbean and headed for Miami. That was about a week ago but I remember it because I checked the "hour forecast" and it was showing July 27. 240 hours is July 27.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting MrstormX:
The blog is pretty much dead
Everybody crashed from too much excitement earlier today... plus Bret looks pretty bad right now.... they've all given up on it until Dmax.... lol
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BTW, I did update my blog: first post of the 2011 season... and I am having a bad feeling it won't be my last....

Nothing much interesting there yet - I just wanted to record BRET as impacting the Bahamas - but I'm hoping to put some more local information there this season. I'm talking news reports, observations, etc.

Comments are welcome, especially from fellow Bahamians / TCIslnders or others who are in our waters whenever a storm is passing through....
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The blog is pretty much dead
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting Levi32:


You guys have been talking about the one that is just exiting Africa. That one and the one behind it look like they should be watched.


Why models on the short run, doesn't even take them in consideration? (up to now)
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
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Quoting caneswatch:


It's 384 hours out, but it's getting to be the time where CV storms are coming around again.


384 hours out!!! I can't remember what I had for breakfast!
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya just got home from being away all day.....about to put the graphics up on the website......more frightened of what and where the next storm might come from!
Lol... agree on the next storm... haven't gone to look @ the actual model runs, but pple keep showing the 240 hr something [ECWMF?] with a huge storm in the GOM and no info on how it got there.... something that big had to have gone through the Car or Bahamas / FL... lo

Quoting MrstormX:
Is it me or is Bret now going almost do South, with maybe a slight East jog.
Been doing that all evening... likely going to check out a Bahama Mama and be a Bahama Breeze for a while... lol

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Quoting wolftribe2009:
Look what the Waves off West Africa have done to the SAL

Link


That inhibitor has been diminished...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting sunlinepr:


The African Wave machine looks well defined...
One out, 3 on the way...



It "looks" like it might be fairly active one.
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497. maeko
A big "Hey Y'all!" from Charleston, SC...checking-in for my seasonal lurk. always good to see the familar names and some new ones too!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


The season is getting closer.



The African Wave machine looks well defined...
One out, 3 on the way...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
LONG TRACKER COMING UP

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Look what the Waves off West Africa have done to the SAL

Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting Orcasystems:


Click to enlarge


At least the Bahamas won't get too much wind, that's good. Rainy here in Miami I assume it is indirectly in part due to Bret.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
492. beell
There's a competing circulation?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, changing topic briefly towards Eastern Atlantic / Africa, is there any wave that is well defined right now in that part of the world that may be a candidate to develop down the road, as the last days of July loom?


You guys have been talking about the one that is just exiting Africa. That one and the one behind it look like they should be watched.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Only real difference is Bret is more symmetrical... what do u think the impact of that circulation is likely to be?


It's hogging surface convergence. Such is the nature of old frontal boundaries. That's why Bret needs to get separated.
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Strong El Niño Could Bring Increased Sea Levels, Storm Surges to US East Coast


ScienceDaily (July 15, 2011) — Coastal communities along the U.S. East Coast may be at risk to higher sea levels accompanied by more destructive storm surges in future El Niño years, according to a new study by NOAA. The study was prompted by an unusual number of destructive storm surges along the East Coast during the 2009-2010 El Niño winter.

The study, led by Bill Sweet, Ph.D. from NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, examined water levels and storm surge events during the 'cool season' of October to April for the past five decades at four sites representative of much of the East Coast: Boston, Atlantic City, N.J., Norfolk, Va., and Charleston, S.C...........

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
462 PcolaDan "Ma-on outer bands hitting Japan."

Just in time for Yakushima to maintain its waterlogged reputation: 4,000to10,000millimeters(160to400inches) of precipitation per year.
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Looks like it will do a mini loop on itself and then head out to the NE.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Levi, changing topic briefly towards Eastern Atlantic / Africa, is there any wave that is well defined right now in that part of the world that may be a candidate to develop down the road, as the last days of July loom?
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How about this scenario. The mid-level circ,gets pulled away from Bret and the LLC continues west across florida triggering rain in florida. What about possible reformation of the LLC in GOM into a Tropical Cyclone?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
Quoting caneswatch:


It's 384 hours out, but it's getting to be the time where CV storms are coming around again.


The season is getting closer.

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Quoting neutralenso:
18z gfs shows in 384 hours a cape verder!!!


You have the link? I think things are going to get interesting starting in August. A series of Tropical Wave Trains!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting neutralenso:
18z gfs shows in 384 hours a cape verder!!!


It's 384 hours out, but it's getting to be the time where CV storms are coming around again.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
hello everyone!

I have a question....When we see the Low mark X......is ithat the exact point where cyclogenesis could happen... or could be somewhere near the Low center___ Is there any rule for that? PLease!!!

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Even with a Edwards landing,,all the work to process out a Orbiter for Museum Status require a 90-120 Day stay in the OPF at KSC.

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IMO Bret is alot more organized than he might appear on Satelite, wouldn't surprise me if he became the first hurricane of the 2011 season.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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