Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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Well Bret certainly isn't moving northeast yet. Brett looks to be dipping further into the Bahamas right now, appears to be more recently moving S again or maybe even SSW.

Either way, its worth keeping an eye on.

Personally I hate Bret because it ruined what was going to be another upcoming wet period for Florida but Bret will push the deep moisture over Florida southward and pull in some drier air, unless it takes a path into Florida. However that seems pretty darn unlikely right now. But it is so close that it is worth keeping an eye on for that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting firemedic308:
Hello all been a lurker for several years, and intersted in learning all about tropical weather development But worried to post a question because dont want to be considered a Troll. I live near the Charleston coast.


Welcome!!! Where are ya? I'm on Folly...
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Quoting firemedic308:
Hello all been a lurker for several years, and intersted in learning all about tropical weather development But worried to post a question because dont want to be considered a Troll. I live near the Charleston coast.
you will not be considered a troll for asking a question. People don;t need to classify the trolls, they do it themselves.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Wow that is really interesting....ty..:)

That prevention discovery is good news ;)
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
settle down people

It will not be long before any "Name" destinations for the tropical systems goes right out the window. People will know that they have to be named because they will be HURRICANES!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting Walshy:


Troll.

The season does not need padding look at where we are already how much of the season is left.
exactly.

If anything, the NHC tries to be conservative in naming storms to avoid media hype.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting firemedic308:
Hello all been a lurker for several years, and intersted in learning all about tropical weather development But worried to post a question because dont want to be considered a Troll. I live near the Charleston coast.


You've been here since 2008. By all means, ask away...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
Quoting 19N81W:
its not a buzzkill just a small low with some limited convection not sure how or who in the nhc decided to name it but i am quite sure that if they applied the same rules to all lows with associated convection we would have run out of names long ago...


Your claims have no objective reasoning at all. The NHC has and continues to remain objective and only names systems once they have sufficient data (either via Hurricane Hunter, surface observations, or satellite estimates) to support such classification. I would like to see OBJECTIVE reasoning from you as to why this does not deserve classification considering the data received from the Hurricane Hunters earlier.
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667. beell
Quoting 19N81W:
i respect the boys and girls who risk their lives flying for the hunters...trust me...but over the years i have seen marginal systems named due to their proximity to the us versus other areas.....it doesnt deserve a name..it is artificially padding the season...anyone else care to comment or to afraid?


Well, we can always drag this article out of
the bottom drawer again. To make things clear as, uh, mud.

Decisions to name storms draw concern / By ERIC BERGER Copyright 2007 Houston Chronicle
Nov. 29, 2007
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fair enough...as a side note if I really want insight on whats going on I usually come here...thanks guys..
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Hello all been a lurker for several years, and intersted in learning all about tropical weather development But worried to post a question because dont want to be considered a Troll. I live near the Charleston coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 19N81W:
i respect the boys and girls who risk their lives flying for the hunters...trust me...but over the years i have seen marginal systems named due to their proximity to the us versus other areas.....it doesnt deserve a name..it is artificially padding the season...anyone else care to comment or to afraid?


Troll.

The season does not need padding look at where we are already how much of the season is left.
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Quoting 19N81W:
Tom its not personal trust me....just confused at why some systems get named and others never even get an invest....


If it's a numbers thing, then why don't all of the systems (including the ones you said don't even get an invest) get named? Why didn't the tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche get classified earlier this week? There is no hidden agenda. This is a tropical storm whether you believe it or not.
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Quoting 19N81W:
its not a buzzkill just a small low with some limited convection not sure how or who in the nhc decided to name it but i am quite sure that if they applied the same rules to all lows with associated convection we would have run out of names long ago...


No "one" decided to name it. It met the criteria. Closed low-level circulation and winds over 39 mph. Simple as that. They do apply the same rules consistently.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 214
Quoting 19N81W:
Tom its not personal trust me....just confused at why some systems get named and others never even get an invest....
you still seem to be ignoring the fact that it has tropical storm force winds, a closed circulation, and a warm core.

That is the definition of a tropical storm. NHC was correct in classifying the storm. You are incorrect in believing this is not a tropical storm. End of story.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting 19N81W:
i respect the boys and girls who risk their lives flying for the hunters...trust me...but over the years i have seen marginal systems named due to their proximity to the us versus other areas.....it doesnt deserve a name..it is artificially padding the season...anyone else care to comment or to afraid?


When you get data from Hurricane Hunters which show established tropical storm force winds, a closed surface circulation, and lowering pressures, then you have to classify a system as a tropical storm. This is in no way "artificially padding the season"; its just what has so happened to develop and what Mother Nature has created.

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Tom its not personal trust me....just confused at why some systems get named and others never even get an invest....
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Are D min D max times the same all the time in the same place? what are the time for say Florida?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Arlene and Bret are nice little children. They formed closer to land. It ill be the children coming next that more than liking will be keeping you up all night cause they are throwing their "tantrums"
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting sunlinepr:
Tsunami Airglow Signature Could Lead to Early Detection System


Airglow waves captured by the Illinois imaging system over Hawaii. The red line represents the location of the ocean-level tsunami at the time of the image. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of Illinois College of Engineering)

ScienceDaily (July 14, 2011) — Researchers at the University of Illinois have become the first to record an airglow signature in the upper atmosphere produced by a tsunami using a camera system based in Maui, Hawaii.

The signature, caused by the March 11 earthquake that devastated Japan, was observed in an airglow layer 250 kilometers above Earth's surface. It preceded the tsunami by one hour, suggesting that the technology could be used as an early-warning system in the future. The findings were recently published in the peer-reviewed Geophysical Research Letters....

Link


Wow that is really interesting....ty..:)
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Bret is trying to make a comeback.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting 19N81W:
tom its nothing...but it is mid July..better name somthing...do i need to post a sat pic?...or any of them in its life cycle...i flew past it 3 times in 4 days and not a bump...there is more to this than u think
So a warm core system with tropical storm force winds and a closed circulation is not a tropical storm?

How much turbulance you happen to experience in your little trek over the storm, and how poor the storm looks on satellite imagery, convection-wise, has absolutely nothing to do with storm classification.

adios
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting 19N81W:
tom its nothing...but it is mid July..better name somthing...do i need to post a sat pic?...or any of them in its life cycle...i flew past it 3 times in 4 days and not a bump...there is more to this than u think
and of course, you know better...same trash, different season.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting 19N81W:
its not a buzzkill just a small low with some limited convection not sure how or who in the nhc decided to name it but i am quite sure that if they applied the same rules to all lows with associated convection we would have run out of names long ago...
Hurricane Hunter data "named it"
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Tsunami Airglow Signature Could Lead to Early Detection System


Airglow waves captured by the Illinois imaging system over Hawaii. The red line represents the location of the ocean-level tsunami at the time of the image. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of Illinois College of Engineering)

ScienceDaily (July 14, 2011) — Researchers at the University of Illinois have become the first to record an airglow signature in the upper atmosphere produced by a tsunami using a camera system based in Maui, Hawaii.

The signature, caused by the March 11 earthquake that devastated Japan, was observed in an airglow layer 250 kilometers above Earth's surface. It preceded the tsunami by one hour, suggesting that the technology could be used as an early-warning system in the future. The findings were recently published in the peer-reviewed Geophysical Research Letters....

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting Tazmanian:
too me BRET has weakin a lot from this AM
It's definitely playing in the minor leagues right now. Seems to be trying to fire up a bit in the last few frames of the WV.

Btw, Running on Nightly now and loving it. Thanks for turning me on to it!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
Quoting Chucktown:


Press, what are you still doing up - hopefully watchin the Mighty 5 !! No Bret for the Lowcountry, although another dose of rain wouldn't hurt.


yup....keep things a little cooler
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tom its nothing...but it is mid July..better name somthing...do i need to post a sat pic?...or any of them in its life cycle...i flew past it 3 times in 4 days and not a bump...there is more to this than u think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 19N81W:
its not a buzzkill just a small low with some limited convection not sure how or who in the nhc decided to name it but i am quite sure that if they applied the same rules to all lows with associated convection we would have run out of names long ago...
at the time it was named, it had convection over the center, making it warm core, winds that met the definition of a tropical storm, and a closed circulation.

How is that not a tropical storm? Please, quit down talking the NHC as if you could do the job better.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting philliesrock:
I don't see why some people think Bret will come up the coast. There's nothing allowing it to do that.


Hey phillies!! Long time no see! How have you been?
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Quoting 19N81W:
bret never looked like anything just had to keep the numbers up or else funding drops...I have seen super cells over the US dwarf bret
well it is a tropical storm, and that is why it received a name...not because naming storms increases funding.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
its not a buzzkill just a small low with some limited convection not sure how or who in the nhc decided to name it but i am quite sure that if they applied the same rules to all lows with associated convection we would have run out of names long ago...
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too me BRET has weakin a lot from this AM
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Quoting presslord:


buzzkill


Press, what are you still doing up - hopefully watchin the Mighty 5 !! No Bret for the Lowcountry, although another dose of rain wouldn't hurt.
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Quoting 19N81W:
bret never looked like anything just had to keep the numbers up or else funding drops...I have seen super cells over the US dwarf bret


buzzkill
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Quoting Chucktown:


Even if there is a shift in the track, all the moisture is going to be on the right side of Bret. There is a tremendous amount of dry air and subsidence over the SE US, so this is not going to be an issue for anyone.


buzzkill
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bret never looked like anything just had to keep the numbers up or else funding drops...I have seen super cells over the US dwarf bret
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For what it's worth. The continental high has backed off quite a bit in 3 hours.

Current



-3hrs

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats how my brain feels after 12 hours on this blog................LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Quoting druseljic:
The moisture over S Fl has reached out and touched Bret...

LOL nice one
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Good Night Folks and see everyone in the am......
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Come on NoGaps.

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I'm not trying to argue anything. I'm just trying to create a conversation.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting extreme236:
Hey everybody! I've been busy so it's been a while since I've posted. Been lurking for a while though. I see Bret's looking pretty ragged. It's gonna need a good night, thats for sure.
well hello 236
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52220
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


All due respect however, if you look at the actual path to the SE Cuba coast, Ernesto was on the extreme right side of that initial cone.
Plus I think the cone means on average a storm passes through some point in the cone 2/3 of the time. As a result, somewhere down the road you're gunna run into those 1/3 storms. I'm not positive on the figure but it's something like that.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.


oops I guess Bret didnt count
stop being a dufus rukus
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52220
wow bret looks impressive!....really?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.