Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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Quoting ElConando:


I assuming you will now show them your thesis on why they are different.


see post 721
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Quoting presslord:


South Carolina has Charleston....North Carolina has....well....South Carolina just beneath it...


LMAO!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Hurricane Hunters now descending and approaching Tropical Storm Bret. Should start getting good data in the next half hour.
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Quoting druseljic:
Quoting presslord:


Which "Carolina"?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?

....what's the difference?....

Uh, oh...


I assuming you will now show them your thesis on why they are different.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
....what's the difference?....;^)


South Carolina has Charleston....North Carolina has....well....South Carolina just beneath it...
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Quoting presslord:


Which "Carolina"?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?

....what's the difference?....

Uh, oh...
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Quoting druseljic:


Wait, what happened to the facts, here with Bret. This storm met all the criteria. Padding the facts doesn't ring true in this case. Its not "artificially padding" when the facts say otherwise.


KEEP IN MIND that NOAA has a lot more tools than we do. Their criteria for naming systems is also based on "Future" expectations. Bret is FORECAST to grow stronger to around 60 MPH. A minimal 40 MPH storm might not seem like anything but anything over 60 is a problem for anyone in it's path. That kind of wind here where I live would snap trees and knock the power out if done for a sustained amount of time.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting hunkerdown:
I don't think what you are looking at is the center. In the first couple frames, you can see a smaller, tighter center that appears to be almost drifting SE or ESE.


yeah, I see what you are looking at, idk we shall see when the HH get in there, they just finished crossing FL
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Quoting presslord:


Which "Carolina"?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?
....what's the difference?....;^)
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Over the years I have argued the same argument on this blog and sometimes attaked ruthlessly. There are DEFINITELY 1 or more systems per season that should not be named. Last year there were 2. Our Nhc and HH pilots ARE brave and work long hours, but more storms = more exposure= more funding. Now I brace for the attacks. Glad to see someone else wo doesn't want the #s artificially inflated.


There's also usually 1-2 systems that should have been classified but didn't. So everything evens out in the end...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
A couple of blowups of thunderstorms near the center have occurred in the last 15 minutes or so...Could be the start of another round of intensification:



We'll see within the next couple hours as Hurricane Hunters are currently enroute to the storm.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
248nm BR out of PBI has the circulation pretty well.




looks like are storm is froming a cold front of some kind
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heck they had 4 aircraft flying around the GOM and WATL, taking atmospheric sampling with dropsondes and such. just wonder if it gets fed real time to the computers or if there is a time delay. I think the plane was still in Bret at 17/2100 and wonder if the data was in for the 18/0000 models?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting wolftribe2009:


lol that would more than likely be North Carolina press. I was more talking about Both though. One model has it hitting along the Georgia/South Carolina coast


much better :-)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting presslord:


Which "Carolina"?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?


lol that would more than likely be North Carolina press. I was more talking about Both though. One model has it hitting along the Georgia/South Carolina coast
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting 7544:
isnt there a recon in a couple of hours ?


Hurricane Hunters are already enroute to Tropical Storm Bret.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Due south at a pretty good clip to me, yes??


Not surprising at all. I'm expecting this to continue for the next 12 hours or so and possibly put the storm right in the Northern Bahamas by morning.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Due south at a pretty good clip to me, yes??
I don't think what you are looking at is the center. In the first couple frames, you can see a smaller, tighter center that appears to be almost drifting SE or ESE.
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Quoting firemedic308:
so press what caused the rapid change from yellow with i think a 10 percent chance yesterday to orange this morning and finally a ts this afternoon, and is there any chance of rapid intensification with this storm overnight and what would cause it. the sst high and near the gulf stream.


You are WAY above my pay grade !!! But there are some brilliant minds here who can answer you...
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Over the years I have argued the same argument on this blog and sometimes attaked ruthlessly. There are DEFINITELY 1 or more systems per season that should not be named. Last year there were 2. Our Nhc and HH pilots ARE brave and work long hours, but more storms = more exposure= more funding. Now I brace for the attacks. Glad to see someone else wo doesn't want the #s artificially inflated.


Wait, what happened to the facts, here with Bret. This storm met all the criteria. Padding the facts doesn't ring true in this case. Its not "artificially padding" when the facts say otherwise.
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A couple of blowups of thunderstorms near the center have occurred in the last 15 minutes or so...Could be the start of another round of intensification:

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Due south at a pretty good clip to me, yes??


I'd agree.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
Ok time for a Poll

What will Bret's Official Track be?

A: North East and out to Sea
B: Northward and closer to the Carolinas (Possibly a Landfall there)
C: Towards Florida and into the Gulf
D: South or South East

I go with B


Which "Carolina"?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?
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so press what caused the rapid change from yellow with i think a 10 percent chance yesterday to orange this morning and finally a ts this afternoon, and is there any chance of rapid intensification with this storm overnight and what would cause it. the sst high and near the gulf stream.
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700. 7544
isnt there a recon in a couple of hours ?
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Due south at a pretty good clip to me, yes??
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Quoting Wolftribe:
Dont forgot I's are Russian, and T's are from Fiji
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Ok time for a Poll

What will Bret's Official Track be?

A: North East and out to Sea
B: Northward and closer to the Carolinas (Possibly a Landfall there)
C: Towards Florida and into the Gulf
D: South or South East

I go with B
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting 19N81W:
i respect the boys and girls who risk their lives flying for the hunters...trust me...but over the years i have seen marginal systems named due to their proximity to the us versus other areas.....it doesnt deserve a name..it is artificially padding the season...anyone else care to comment or to afraid?
Over the years I have argued the same argument on this blog and sometimes attaked ruthlessly. There are DEFINITELY 1 or more systems per season that should not be named. Last year there were 2. Our Nhc and HH pilots ARE brave and work long hours, but more storms = more exposure= more funding. Now I brace for the attacks. Glad to see someone else wo doesn't want the #s artificially inflated.
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point taken.....cheers
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In other weather related news:Link
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Quoting 19N81W:
ya they are but you would be amazed the decisions i have made based on input from this forum.....anyway i seemed to have pissed off some folks my apologies.....
no biggie, just try to avoid disagreeing with the NHC unless you really have good reason to do so.

Your personal measure of turbulence over the storm and satellite observations are irrelevant to storm classification and very subjective to personal opinion, rather than objective observations. Therefore, these are not good reasons to disagree with the NHC.

anyway, don't mean to scare you off the blog, or make enemies, just trying to keep people from thinking the NHC doesn't know how to do their job.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting sunlinepr:


east of the line, good for japan
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It would not surprise me at all to see the southward drift continue through tomorrow to below 27N latitude. Also, Tropical Storm Bret looks lopsided due to dry air in the western side of the storm, but convection continues to deepen on the eastern half as the night progresses. Will be interesting to see what this Hurricane Hunter flight finds in Tropical Storm Bret.
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Quoting firemedic308:
Press I live in goose creek and work in colleton


lottsa good Lowcountry folks are regulars on this blog...
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689. 7544
Quoting Abacosurf:
Precip looks to be wrapping around the center nicely.

Looks like it may make it to Abaco by morning.

Already just west of Walkers key now.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product= N0Z&rid=MLB&loop=yes


yeap and dmax is coming soon
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Im back everyone... do you guys need any:
Crow, Duck, Troll spray, a dose of sanity, or some much needed sleep?
did ya get that case of crow...I believe there are some hungry souls around here :)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
To help people identify the natural disaster, meteorological groups provide different sets of names for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, eastern Pacific as well as central Pacific. The Region 4 Hurricane Committee of the World Meteorological Organization is the agency assigned to give names to tropical cyclones that developed or originated in the Atlantic Basin. The names are commonly French, Spanish and English. Additionally, the organization alternates female and male names. It has chosen several sets of tropical cyclone names.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Precip looks to be wrapping around the center nicely.

Looks like it may make it to Abaco by morning.

Already just west of Walkers Cay now.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product= N0Z&rid=MLB&loop=yes
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Press I live in goose creek and work in colleton
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Im back everyone... do you guys need any:
Crow, Duck, Troll spray, a dose of sanity, or some much needed sleep?
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ya they are but you would be amazed the decisions i have made based on input from this forum.....anyway i seemed to have pissed off some folks my apologies.....
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Thanks Dr so what precentage are the models actually correct with there track of tropical, and has any tracks changed drastically in a short amount of time less then 12 hours ie.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Well Bret certainly isn't moving northeast yet. Brett looks to be dipping further into the Bahamas right now, appears to be more recently moving S again or maybe even SSW.

Either way, its worth keeping an eye on.

Personally I hate Bret because it ruined what was going to be another upcoming wet period for Florida but Bret will push the deep moisture over Florida southward and pull in some drier air, unless it takes a path into Florida. However that seems pretty darn unlikely right now. But it is so close that it is worth keeping an eye on for that.


Very much in agreement with your assessment of the current motion. I strongly believe that Florida shouldn't take its eyes off Bret.
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Quoting firemedic308:
Hello all been a lurker for several years, and intersted in learning all about tropical weather development But worried to post a question because dont want to be considered a Troll. I live near the Charleston coast.


don't be afraid to ask. More importantly, read. You will learn who knows their stuff and who is reliable. I hardly ever post but am here constantly, so I feel I know everyone but no one knows me. There's a lot of good people on here. Just ignore the ones who have nothing to contribute and just try to start arguments.
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678. 7544
if bret gets any farther south he just might miss the weakness and we will have a whole new ballgames imo
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Quoting 19N81W:
fair enough...as a side note if I really want insight on whats going on I usually come here...thanks guys..
I can't stop you, but you should go to the NHC first.

They are the professionals, we are the enthusiasts.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting TomTaylor:
exactly.

If anything, the NHC tries to be conservative in naming storms to avoid media hype.


+1

That's exactly what they do.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Well Bret certainly isn't moving northeast yet. Brett looks to be dipping further into the Bahamas right now, appears to be more recently moving S again or maybe even SSW.

Either way, its worth keeping an eye on.

Personally I hate Bret because it ruined what was going to be another upcoming wet period for Florida but Bret will push the deep moisture over Florida southward and pull in some drier air, unless it takes a path into Florida. However that seems pretty darn unlikely right now. But it is so close that it is worth keeping an eye on for that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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