Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.

Forecast for TD2

The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.

There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

Angela

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Some of the SFMR readings may be inaccurate due flying over shallow waters/land. The 51 knot flight level wind is impressive though.
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Time: 05:10:00Z
Coordinates: 27.2333N 78.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 849.6 mb (~ 25.09 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,479 meters (~ 4,852 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 43° at 41 knots (From the NE at ~ 47.1 mph)
Air Temp: 15.7°C* (~ 60.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

gotten stronger
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Low-level spiral bands are developing near the COC according to radar.
I noticed this as well. Also, convection is starting to fire directly over the center.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Yes.


Now I have a reading of 57 mph winds.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Is this the latest one you have?

Time: 05:05:00Z
Coordinates: 27.4667N 78.2333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 848.7 mb (~ 25.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,529 meters (~ 5,016 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 58° at 38 knots (From the ENE at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 16.4°C* (~ 61.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


Yes.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting AllStar17:


Oh. No, I meant they are finding TS-force winds. Sorry about that.


Is this the latest one you have?

Time: 05:05:00Z
Coordinates: 27.4667N 78.2333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 848.7 mb (~ 25.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,529 meters (~ 5,016 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 58° at 38 knots (From the ENE at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 16.4°C* (~ 61.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Low-level spiral bands are developing near the COC according to radar.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


oh yeah I know, I thought you were saying they reported a vort message.


Oh. No, I meant they are finding TS-force winds. Sorry about that.
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Make it an oyster poboy...;^)
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Quoting AllStar17:


40 mph winds already being reported, at least according to Google Earth.


oh yeah I know, I thought you were saying they reported a vort message.
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Quoting JLPR2:


O.o
That's intimidating.

Good thing it is so far off. :)

I'll buy adult diapers if it persists and shows it in 100hrs or less. XD

Tomorow I'll go and buy the front door "Tormenteras" that I'm missing... (including the pampers)
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
GFS is showing TWO lows coming off Africa. One around 300 Hours and one 384 Hours

300 Hours
Link

384 Hours
Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting FrankZapper:
I need to send you a poboy from Salvos :) Sure scientists have integrity.You and I are scientists. I just don't trust bureaucracies. NHC quietly shuffled whats his name out the door as director a couple years ago because he was not enough of an insider. BTW, I hope that radiation detector of yours is doing well..
sure questionable moves can occur but the type of conspiracy you are postulating would require everyone from the H.H. to the director of the NHC to be falsifying data.....not happening.
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761. JRRP
Quoting caneswatch:


That's something you don't see a lot LOL

yeap
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


what? not even close to being finished, still havent even reached the center.


40 mph winds already being reported, at least according to Google Earth.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting AllStar17:
Bret remains a tropical storm according to recon.


what? not even close to being finished, still havent even reached the center.
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757. JLPR2
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
two highs to the north will moving this storm west for a long time


O.o
That's intimidating.

Good thing it is so far off. :)

I'll buy adult diapers if it persists and shows it in 100hrs or less. XD
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Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
Bret remains a tropical storm according to recon.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
two highs to the north will moving this storm west for a long time

possible 1960 hurricane donna track
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
Quoting JRRP:
what the h....???




lol


Finally some models start showing the African waves...

Waves?

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


...and nobody has any integrity...and there is no accountability...and scientists are all on the take....I'm surprised the NHC hasn't had 10 named storms and 15 hurricanes by now...that would really help their funding. They could get the same guys that faked the Apollo moon landings to fake storm devastation.....sheeesh.
I need to send you a poboy from Salvos :) Sure scientists have integrity.You and I are scientists. I just don't trust bureaucracies. NHC quietly shuffled whats his name out the door as director a couple years ago because he was not enough of an insider. BTW, I hope that radiation detector of yours is doing well..
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
Quoting JRRP:
what the h....???




lol


That's something you don't see a lot LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Recon. should make a center pass within the hour I'd guess.
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Quoting JRRP:
what the h....???




lol


Where you getting this?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
745. JRRP
Quoting wolftribe2009:


ok well my question would be

is this the same system we see in the Gulf at 240 hours?

or an entirely different storm system?

i think is the same but GFS is more conservative on this wave
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744. 7544
new convection now to the sw side this could get interesting at dmax stay tuned
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Everything you said is true BUT don't forget the government is GOING belly up and nobody wants their program cut. Even the director of pothole inspections has mouths to feed.


...and nobody has any integrity...and there is no accountability...and scientists are all on the take....I'm surprised the NHC hasn't had 10 named storms and 15 hurricanes by now...that would really help their funding. They could get the same guys that faked the Apollo moon landings to fake storm devastation.....sheeesh.
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TS Bret is being sheared now, the COC is still moving south and the convection is moving NE.
Visual.
IR2
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741. JRRP
what the h....???




lol
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Quoting JRRP:

GFS


ok well my question would be

is this the same system we see in the Gulf at 240 hours?

or an entirely different storm system?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
738. JRRP
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Which model is that? This must be the second wave right behind the big cape verde one.

GFS
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Quoting JRRP:




Which model is that? This must be the second wave right behind the big cape verde one.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


looks to me like a new center has taken over?


Looks somewhat defined in Radar, but like Levi posted, it will be difficult to concentrate convection due to surrounding conditions... and any development will be slow...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting sunlinepr:


Thunderstorm act is certainly increasing according to that radar loop.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
734. JRRP
Link

Link
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Quoting presslord:


South Carolina has Charleston....North Carolina has....well....South Carolina just beneath it...


You're going to get some tar-heel fired up with that comment...Heheheh.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah exactly, cause they are Pros, not silly dreamers people trying to make something bigger or worse than it is. Well, they all have their hopes of where it might go to but they stick to doing their job and giving the best solution at the time :)
Everything you said is true BUT don't forget the government is GOING belly up and nobody wants their program cut. Even the director of pothole inspections has mouths to feed.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


looks to me like a new center has taken over?
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Quoting presslord:


see post 721


Short and to the point, I like it!
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting TomTaylor:
exactly.

If anything, the NHC tries to be conservative in naming storms to avoid media hype.


Yeah exactly, cause they are Pros, not silly dreamers people trying to make something bigger or worse than it is. Well, they all have their hopes of where it might go to but they stick to doing their job and giving the best solution at the time :)
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hurricane Hunters now descending and approaching Tropical Storm Bret. Should start getting good data in the next half hour.


they always have some surprises for us though. It is like trick or treating on halloween night as a kid. You never know what sort of candy you were going to get.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting ElConando:


I assuming you will now show them your thesis on why they are different.


see post 721
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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