98L may develop into a tropical depression near Florida; Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

Share this Blog
0
+

A tropical disturbance (Invest 98L) has formed off the east coast of Florida, along the tail end of a cold front that pushed off the coast late last week. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression that will bring heavy rains to the northern Bahamas and east coast of Florida today through Tuesday. Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become more organized this morning, with an expanding area of intense thunderstorms, the beginnings of a surface circulation, and upper-level outflow on the east and north sides of the storm. Some rotation of 98L is also evident on long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida, but the rain showers are poorly organized and there is little evidence of low-level spiral banding. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 27 - 28°C, which is plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. There is dry, continental air over North Florida, and upper level winds out of the northwest are driving this dry air into the center of 98L, retarding development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L.

Forecast for 98L
The models are shy about developing 98L; only the HWRF model shows a tropical depression developing. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, over the next five days. NHC is giving 98L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Given the recent satellite and radar presentation of the storm, I'd put those odds higher, at 50%. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and 98L can be expected to move slowly at less than 5 mph over the next two days. The HWRF and GFDL models predict 98L will execute a clockwise loop, heading towards the coast of Florida on Monday, then looping northeastwards towards South Carolina later in the week. The track of 98L will depend strongly on how intense the storm gets; a weak system is likely to stay farther to the south, while a stronger system will "feel" upper level winds with a west-to-east component, and tend to move to the northeast, parallel to the coast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat wave will remain entrenched over the center or eastern portion of the country during the coming week, so the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily continue through the remainder of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave later this week.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on at 08:26 UTC July 17, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, with the inner eyewall collapsing and a new, larger eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 3 Typhoon Ma-on is headed northwestward towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Once this process completes, Ma-on is expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 29 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range of 5 - 15 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm. The typhoon is unusually large, with winds of tropical storm force (39+ mph) extending out almost 350 miles to the north of the storm. A large portion of the south coast of Japan will receive tropical storm-force winds and large battering waves from Ma-on. Although the typhoon is currently a minimal Category 3 storm, its large size means that Ma-on has a tremendous amount of total kinetic energy, characteristic of a Category 5 storm. This means that Ma-on has the potential to bring a large and highly destructive storm to the coast on the right front side of where the eye makes landfall. If the eye remains just offshore, as some models are predicting, this storm surge will largely miss Japan, though.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 802 - 752

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

The center is about 128 miles from the coast if you travel due west on the same longitude of the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90 posts in 20 minutes...faster than in NASCAR!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:


Taz They missed the Hole Storm.....

Now they are thinking "Boy we Blew This One"....

Taco :o)



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Dr. Nabb.EAT CROW!!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOO!!! Wikapedia erased my post! darn you! darn you!!!!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Noooooooooooo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
D-min is taking its toll on the Convective bands,,


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
movement ...away from Florida.. nothing to worry about..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
791. xcool
It's all about to get very very interesting ;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


can I have the link for the navy info?
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, TD 2 sure developed quickly. Normally, these processes take a lot longer. Should become Bret since it's over very warm waters and in favorable upper level conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
788. bwi
Wow, I just turned the computer back on and see the HH plane found 1010mb with 25 kt west winds. I'm impressed. Looks like 27.567N 78.217W. My question is: Which way will it move?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think this storm has been vary poorey forcast


Taz They missed the Hole Storm.....

Now they are thinking "Boy we Blew This One"....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
INIT ADV 5 PM EST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heh, look what the NRL got TD2 confused with.

Track for TD2.. 2010.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
Ha, just update 2011 hurricane season wikapedia, now has TD 2 on there... check it out for yourself.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Neapolitan:

No, it's official; ATCF already called it...


Yeah I just caught that..one hell of a improvement in organization from 18 hours ago. Thunderstorm activty continues to become more and more concentrated around an impressive LLC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Center is about 80 miles N of Freeport (Bahamas).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I call posting Td two on wikapedia first!!!!!!!!

Yelp and I hit my Facebook as well....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Now that we have 02L the question is how strong will it get? Should see an advisory in 30 minutes tops.


It'll be a 5pm update like we usually get after afternoon recon. Prob about 30mins, like you said.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Yep,same goes with 97L in the boc which almost got classified in less than 12 hrs.


Yeah. It would be crazy if the last one got classified. That would mean this would become Cindy, and the one Euro is hinting at could have become Don.

But it didn't. And the one Euro is hinting at probably won't either. But who knows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont know..the 2:00 model plots were out before the HH finishing their flight..next model plots will be the tell tale sign into where this storm will be heading since they have correct and recent data to feed into the models..this could be a ride up the coast storm..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
center about 118 miles ENE of Port Saint Lucie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneAddict:
Well it looks like we unofficially have TD #2. The recon looks to be about done and evidence of a closed circulation is there..

No, it's official; ATCF already called it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm assuming from some of the posts I've read, this is not a threat for FL? All I know is I never like these 'quick' forming storms that are not forecast and then bring everyone in for a loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
WE now have TD#2 its on the navy site now question to the blog WHEN WAS THE LAST THE NHC GAVE A SYSTEM JUST 40 CHANCE of bcoming A TD AND THE SYSTEM GOT TO TD STATUS SO QUICK


good question, that happened in the East Pac. when TD Six-E then Lana in the central Pac
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al022011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107171958
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
TWO, AL, L, , , , , 02, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL022011
AL, 02, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 298N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 02, 2011071700, , BEST, 0, 293N, 789W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 02, 2011071706, , BEST, 0, 288N, 785W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 782W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 02, 2011071718, , BEST, 0, 277N, 783W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting ackee:
WE now have TD#2 its on the navy site now question to the blog WHEN WAS THE LAST THE NHC GAVE A SYSTEM JUST 40 CHANCE of bcoming A TD AND THE SYSTEM GOT TO TD STATUS SO QUICK


Actually, Bonnie isn't a bad example of something like this. They had Bonnie up at 70%, then dropped it all the way down to 20% the night before development, then next morning at 8am it went to 70%, and at 9am it was put a 100%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHew, the posts are flying in. Was kind of hoping for a landfall out of this, everyone in FL and GA could really use the rain from a weak TC. Looks like thats not going to happen though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well it looks like we unofficially have TD #2. The recon looks to be about done and evidence of a closed circulation is there..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BadHurricane:
We will have a special statement to upgrade to TD2 in a minutes...based on the winds that recon found!


Renumbering!!
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think this storm has been vary poorey forcast
I agree Taz.Pull some prizes on all of us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR =2011&MO=07&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=98L.INVEST&PROD=t rack_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest &SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/t c11/ATL/08W.MA-ON/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now that we have 02L the question is how strong will it get? Should see an advisory in 30 minutes tops.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
We will have a special statement to upgrade to TD2 in a minutes...based on the winds that recon found!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... too fast, too slow.

Sheesh... the NHC are always too something for people on this blog.


It's because they like to start drama, really annoying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:
gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooAL


GOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL LLLLL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
759. 7544
Quoting FSUstormnut:
Navy Link Link

Don't be surprised if parts of Florida are posted with Watches as this indicates a TS is "possible" within 36 hours.

I don't think Florida will have to worry about any warnings.


what parts do u think
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting Hurrykane:
Yeah...Navy has it as TD2



can I have the link for the navy info?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i think this storm has been vary poorey forcast
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Navy Link Link

Don't be surprised if parts of Florida are posted with Watches as this indicates a TS is "possible" within 36 hours.

I don't think Florida will have to worry about any warnings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
753. ackee
WE now have TD#2 its on the navy site now question to the blog WHEN WAS THE LAST THE NHC GAVE A SYSTEM JUST 40 CHANCE of bcoming A TD AND THE SYSTEM GOT TO TD STATUS SO QUICK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooAL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 802 - 752

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast