98L may develop into a tropical depression near Florida; Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 98L) has formed off the east coast of Florida, along the tail end of a cold front that pushed off the coast late last week. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression that will bring heavy rains to the northern Bahamas and east coast of Florida today through Tuesday. Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become more organized this morning, with an expanding area of intense thunderstorms, the beginnings of a surface circulation, and upper-level outflow on the east and north sides of the storm. Some rotation of 98L is also evident on long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida, but the rain showers are poorly organized and there is little evidence of low-level spiral banding. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 27 - 28°C, which is plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. There is dry, continental air over North Florida, and upper level winds out of the northwest are driving this dry air into the center of 98L, retarding development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L.

Forecast for 98L
The models are shy about developing 98L; only the HWRF model shows a tropical depression developing. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, over the next five days. NHC is giving 98L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Given the recent satellite and radar presentation of the storm, I'd put those odds higher, at 50%. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and 98L can be expected to move slowly at less than 5 mph over the next two days. The HWRF and GFDL models predict 98L will execute a clockwise loop, heading towards the coast of Florida on Monday, then looping northeastwards towards South Carolina later in the week. The track of 98L will depend strongly on how intense the storm gets; a weak system is likely to stay farther to the south, while a stronger system will "feel" upper level winds with a west-to-east component, and tend to move to the northeast, parallel to the coast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat wave will remain entrenched over the center or eastern portion of the country during the coming week, so the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily continue through the remainder of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave later this week.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on at 08:26 UTC July 17, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, with the inner eyewall collapsing and a new, larger eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 3 Typhoon Ma-on is headed northwestward towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Once this process completes, Ma-on is expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 29 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range of 5 - 15 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm. The typhoon is unusually large, with winds of tropical storm force (39+ mph) extending out almost 350 miles to the north of the storm. A large portion of the south coast of Japan will receive tropical storm-force winds and large battering waves from Ma-on. Although the typhoon is currently a minimal Category 3 storm, its large size means that Ma-on has a tremendous amount of total kinetic energy, characteristic of a Category 5 storm. This means that Ma-on has the potential to bring a large and highly destructive storm to the coast on the right front side of where the eye makes landfall. If the eye remains just offshore, as some models are predicting, this storm surge will largely miss Japan, though.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
here we go again with more fish storms this year!! starting to look like last year again


AGREED!!! Mexico and Fish better look out!
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951. bwi
000
WTNT42 KNHC 172042
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WERE MEASURED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD
THE PLANE...THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE. PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 44 KT WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY INDICATE A SYSTEM OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND IN THIS
CASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AS MUCH AS TYPICALLY OCCURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30
KT. THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING
WITH SOME DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND
INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NONE OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS...ALONG WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RATHER CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 27.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 27.4N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 28.2N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 30.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 34.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 36.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

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949. beell
Quoting FLdewey:
I think to celebrate a pint of Ben & Jerry's Phish Food is in order...

nom nom nom


My treat.
; - )
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That's it folks, season is a bust, see ya next year. Storms going out to sea and going to mexico rest of season, period. Another long year to wait till next year again.


Sarcasm flag: ON
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Quoting Tazmanian:



reported watch what you say


Why don't you mind your own business and stop being a tattletale. Ignore me and go away. It's that simple, really.
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I've been watching this disturbance somewhat not to far away from TD2. Its interesting because the models show this getting a low pressure center and a closed isobar around it, though not enough to be a TD but given they didn't show anything from TD2 and it still developed, and this is also coming from the trough, its worth watching.


Has a fair amount of 850mb vort to with it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
Quoting cloudburst2011:
this is a very strong high forcast to build over the carolinas causing temps to soar near the century mark...td 2 has no way to go but the way the nhc has it moving....one slim possibility if td 2 stalls for about 48 hours then it would be possible to cross southern fla and move into the the se gom....this is not likely to happen though...although the steering currents are weak now as the depression gains strength will pick up speed and move rapidly ne/ene as the trough influences it...everyone needs to look towards the african coast this is a very strong system with a large envelope that just moved off...this will become cindy in the the next 48-72 hours...the saharan dust has diminished and the wind shear is very low...this could be a very strong system for the caribbean islands in 8 days...
IMO I don't think this wave woll develope that fast.I think however it will need to be watched further down the road.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16410
Quoting Guaricandilla2011:


Really? How could you tell?


Payed attention to the run...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Hurricane Hunters found several solid tropical storm force winds in the recent data batch.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Funny that this year and last year's 'A' storms formed in the Caribbean and moved into Mexico, and the 'B' storms formed east of Florida, though moving in a different direction. I guess Cindy gonna be rolling up the middle of the Atlantic then.


Thats what I said just earlier. This year is just like last year. The year of the Fish and Campeche storm
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I suspect an upgrade to TS Bret no later 11 pm tonight.
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937. JLPR2
Quoting Guaricandilla2011:


WOW, I just laughed out loud after reading that, JP. Did he just say that Cindy will form off of Africa in 48 hours? ROFL. me meo, JP, me meo.


No need to make fun of him/her.

Maybe the person was seeing an old image, but considering how this wave energized the Monsoon trof/ ITCZ, it may have a chance further down the road. But 48hrs would surprise me.

Grow up JFV. Being a little more serious wouldn't hurt you.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Funny that this year and last year's 'A' storms formed in the Caribbean and moved into Mexico, and the 'B' storms formed east of Florida, though moving in a different direction. I guess Cindy gonna be rolling up the middle of the Atlantic then.
This pattern is soooooooooo like last year.L to the O to the L.Lol!! ha ha :D.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16410
Verb: slip away slip u'wey

Leave furtively and stealthily
- steal away, sneak away, sneak off, sneak out
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting MysteryMeat:
So how many "HOLY BUTTS LOOK AT THAT AWESOME WAVE COMING OFF OF AFRICA IT SHOULD BE AN INVEST AS SOON AS IT HITS WATER WE NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS ONE" systems have we had? And how many of them have died before they even got to the CVs? Don't worry, CV season will begin soon enough.



reported watch what you say
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Time: 20:32:00Z
Coordinates: 27.7833N 77.5333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.5 mb (~ 28.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 430 meters (~ 1,411 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1015.8 mb (~ 30.00 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 106° at 33 knots (From the ESE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 17.9°C (~ 64.2°F)
Dew Pt: 17.0°C (~ 62.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 13 mm/hr (~ 0.51 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Nothing contaminated here!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The nect chance for a storm(cindy)is shown by the EMCWF, which shows Cindy in the gulf in 10 days.



cindy cam back from the dead wow in the gulf same spot has 2005?
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Quoting Gaea:
I shall do as I please.
Huh?.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16410
Funny that this year and last year's 'A' storms formed in the Caribbean and moved into Mexico, and the 'B' storms formed east of Florida, though moving in a different direction. I guess Cindy gonna be rolling up the middle of the Atlantic then.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The wave off of Africa is the one that the ECMWF develops in 10 days.


lol


Was just about to post that :P

Probably won't happen unless the ECMWF is consistent.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
omg omg


wow evere ones thinks this year will be like last year NOT so
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923. Gaea
I shall do as I please.
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Quoting JLPR2:



What?
I mentioned that in a post earlier this afternoon.I think that the chances are low for it to develope as of now.However I will still continue to watch it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16410
921. 7544
fuuny it fformed in the bahamas and not off the est coast of fl lol
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
70% chance that bret is going to be a fish storm no trouble to anyone but the fish and ships....with that being said everyone needs to turn there interest to the blob that just moved off the african coast...very impressive and the saharan dust has really diminished...this could be upgraded to cindy in 48 hours...

uhhhh ok....
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
The nect chance for a storm(cindy)is shown by the EMCWF, which shows Cindy in the gulf in 10 days.
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Japan 1 USA 2
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The wave off of Africa is the one that the ECMWF develops in 10 days.


lol
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Looking like last year. Bay of Campeche storms and Fish storms. Pretty much as expected
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GGGGOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLL
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Save your Quarters and dont feed the trolls!
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goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooal
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
912. xcool



Surface Streamlines and Plots
by http://www.twitter.com/storm2k_org
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hello TD#2 we have been waiting a long time for you
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Today in the atlantic, 98L got:
1. A partial of a trough split
2. along with a pinch of low upper level winds
3. with a gallon of warm water
4. and a large dose of fast acting Tropical Cyclone formation dust.
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Quoting Speeky:
TD 2 HAS FORMED!!!!


Really?? I don't think anybody here had even noticed!
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Quoting Speeky:
TD 2 HAS FORMED!!!!


Lol you're a bit late
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I thought it would take at least one more day.. I also thought it would take at least one more day for Arlene it was named later that day. Seems like the NHC is a lot less conservative this year.
Ur not the only one; what did somebody last page say about 20 places of crow??? lol

Well, if this goes to ts before Wednesday or Thursday, that shoots my prediction all to smithereens....

I will definitely do a blog update on this one, since TD2 seems to still be in Bahamian waters. Pity I'm not in Abaco or Freeport this weekend...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
Quoting Guaricandilla2011:
Next indeed, Scott Guillet! Better enjoy this fish storm while you can, folks! Because this will ''NOT'' be the expected trend with storms this year, as you all have heard. Anyhow, I am pleased to say that the ECMW expects Cindy to hit Florida before month's end, now there's something to look forward to.

Hmmm somebody made there account yesterday....
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
TD 2 HAS FORMED!!!!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
jfv if i could i would spin one up right over your head and wrap you up in teh shower curtain to the top of you're head


LOL!! Too funny for sure...good ole JFV
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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