98L may develop into a tropical depression near Florida; Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 98L) has formed off the east coast of Florida, along the tail end of a cold front that pushed off the coast late last week. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression that will bring heavy rains to the northern Bahamas and east coast of Florida today through Tuesday. Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become more organized this morning, with an expanding area of intense thunderstorms, the beginnings of a surface circulation, and upper-level outflow on the east and north sides of the storm. Some rotation of 98L is also evident on long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida, but the rain showers are poorly organized and there is little evidence of low-level spiral banding. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 27 - 28°C, which is plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. There is dry, continental air over North Florida, and upper level winds out of the northwest are driving this dry air into the center of 98L, retarding development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L.

Forecast for 98L
The models are shy about developing 98L; only the HWRF model shows a tropical depression developing. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, over the next five days. NHC is giving 98L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Given the recent satellite and radar presentation of the storm, I'd put those odds higher, at 50%. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and 98L can be expected to move slowly at less than 5 mph over the next two days. The HWRF and GFDL models predict 98L will execute a clockwise loop, heading towards the coast of Florida on Monday, then looping northeastwards towards South Carolina later in the week. The track of 98L will depend strongly on how intense the storm gets; a weak system is likely to stay farther to the south, while a stronger system will "feel" upper level winds with a west-to-east component, and tend to move to the northeast, parallel to the coast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat wave will remain entrenched over the center or eastern portion of the country during the coming week, so the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily continue through the remainder of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave later this week.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on at 08:26 UTC July 17, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, with the inner eyewall collapsing and a new, larger eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 3 Typhoon Ma-on is headed northwestward towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Once this process completes, Ma-on is expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 29 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range of 5 - 15 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm. The typhoon is unusually large, with winds of tropical storm force (39+ mph) extending out almost 350 miles to the north of the storm. A large portion of the south coast of Japan will receive tropical storm-force winds and large battering waves from Ma-on. Although the typhoon is currently a minimal Category 3 storm, its large size means that Ma-on has a tremendous amount of total kinetic energy, characteristic of a Category 5 storm. This means that Ma-on has the potential to bring a large and highly destructive storm to the coast on the right front side of where the eye makes landfall. If the eye remains just offshore, as some models are predicting, this storm surge will largely miss Japan, though.

Jeff Masters

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1009.3 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Anyhow, Im off to jamar, bloggers, BBS, =).
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks Taz.



any time
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Hello TS Bret(unoffical)(found by HH)
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998. JLPR2
Pretty impressive winds for its current appearence.


We'll probably get a show tonight at D-max.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




reported right back LOL
Thanks Taz.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
Quoting Skyepony:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 20:37Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:16:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°34'N 78°11'W (27.5667N 78.1833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 130 miles (209 km) to the ENE (63°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 24kts (~ 27.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 60° at 25kts (From the ENE at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 189m (620ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 188m (617ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:25:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:25:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet




wow so we could see a upgrade here vary soon
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Pressure down to 1009mb
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 172034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND
WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
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Dean, as Drak just noted it is probable that was associated with a thunderstorm downdraft, look at the rain rates.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting RitaEvac:
That's it folks, season is a bust, see ya next year. Storms going out to sea and going to mexico rest of season, period. Another long year to wait till next year again.


Sarcasm flag: ON


And also... Breaking News! With a record of NEVER blowing a forecast, just in from SMALL (Silent Monks of Altos Libres Locales), their forecast for the remainder of the season:
" "
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991. 7544
its going northeast peeps no gom on this one
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Quoting Guaricandilla2011:


You've been reported, cerda cancerosa.




reported right back LOL
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td inside my stomach
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4862
So here are all the non conaminated surface winds found...

48.3, 66.7, 62.1, 63.2, 56.3, 65.5, 69.0, 65.5, 62.1,
So could see bret with 50 to 65 mph...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting taco2me61:


Hey Taz I have one thing to say and this is

SSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

we do not need Cindy to visit us this year....

Taco :o)




sure you do she loves you she wants too say hello
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noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Member Since: November 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
985. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 20:37Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:16:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°34'N 78°11'W (27.5667N 78.1833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 130 miles (209 km) to the ENE (63°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 24kts (~ 27.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 60° at 25kts (From the ENE at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 189m (620ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 188m (617ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:25:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:25:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Strong winds being measured could be from the thunderstorm downdrafts. Notice the high rainfall rates associated with those measurements. Those high winds are quite close to the center of the storm, but the are in the right front quadrant of the system.


Didn't think about that.

Lets see what another pass through that area shows.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't worry the more "usernames" you make the more names will be added to my list.And my ignore list does need some help....




and i sure dont need any more Jason names ugh i got 13 on there
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
02L will likely become Bret by the 11p.m EDT advisory later this evening. Anticyclonic flow aloft is slowly becoming established, and the system is currently drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf stream. The only inhibiting factor I can see is lack of mid-level moisture to the northwest of the cyclone, which nevertheless, is still a few hundred miles from the circulation.

Also won't dry air be a problem?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
Quoting thewindman:
Looking like last year. Bay of Campeche storms and Fish storms. Pretty much as expected
Ah.... season hasn't even gotten going yet... just sayin...

Quoting MysteryMeat:
So how many "HOLY BUTTS LOOK AT THAT AWESOME WAVE COMING OFF OF AFRICA IT SHOULD BE AN INVEST AS SOON AS IT HITS WATER WE NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS ONE" systems have we had? And how many of them have died before they even got to the CVs? Don't worry, CV season will begin soon enough.
Actually I think this particular wave has a fairly decent chance. But, as pple say, not for 7+ days...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting Tazmanian:



cindy cam back from the dead wow in the gulf same spot has 2005?


Hey Taz I have one thing to say and this is

SSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

we do not need Cindy to visit us this year....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gonna go against the NHC and say this is a situation where the stronger it gets the more influence the ridge is gonna have on it and steer it SW and W towards the gulf.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
+100


Good to see ya too, ''MA'AM''.
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that disturbance northeast of tropical d two need to be watch for a invest to.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
That's it folks, season is a bust, see ya next year. Storms going out to sea and going to mexico rest of season, period. Another long year to wait till next year again.


Sarcasm flag: ON

Lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A lot of uncontaminated 50 mph TS winds where just found in TD2, and one was 69 mph.

56.0 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

54.0 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
Tropical Storm

53.4 knots (~ 61.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

49.0 knots (~ 56.3 mph)
Tropical Storm

52.9 knots (~ 60.9 mph)
Tropical Storm

58.6 knots (~ 67.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

52.8 knots (~ 60.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

This is all uncontaminated and all right next to eachother, so this could be Bret right now with 50 mph winds.


If these are accurate then we have a fair chance of seeing a hurricane from this.
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02L will likely become Bret by the 11p.m EDT advisory later this evening. Anticyclonic flow aloft is slowly becoming established, and the system is currently drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf stream. The only inhibiting factor I can see is lack of mid-level moisture to the northwest of the cyclone, which nevertheless, is still a few hundred miles from the circulation.

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Strong winds being measured could be from the thunderstorm downdrafts. Notice the high rainfall rates associated with those measurements. Those high winds are quite close to the center of the storm, but the are in the right front quadrant of the system.
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2011,"YEAR of the FISH"!!
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And with that, the blog has been engulfed in flames.

Back later when white space appears.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting Guaricandilla2011:


Plz don't start, Jason! BTW, can you lend me your other screen-name, bro?
Don't worry the more "usernames" you make the more names will be added to my list.And my ignore list does need some help....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
Or here
Time: 20:46:00Z
Coordinates: 27.8N 77.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 991.4 mb (~ 29.28 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 191 meters (~ 627 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.4 mb (~ 29.93 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 62° at 38 knots (From the ENE at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 18.6°C (~ 65.5°F)
Dew Pt: 17.2°C (~ 63.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 35 mm/hr (~ 1.38 in/hr)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Guaricandilla2011:


Plz don't start, Jason! BTW, can you lend me your other screen-name, bro?
You have more than enough of your own to use. I don't think you will be so gung-ho when a strong hurricane really threatens S. Florida.
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Quoting Tazmanian:





you been reported for that too


Taz theres no need to tell people your reporting them. Just do it and leave it alone.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A lot of uncontaminated 50 mph TS winds where just found in TD2, and one was 69 mph.

56.0 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

54.0 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
Tropical Storm

53.4 knots (~ 61.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

49.0 knots (~ 56.3 mph)
Tropical Storm

52.9 knots (~ 60.9 mph)
Tropical Storm

58.6 knots (~ 67.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

52.8 knots (~ 60.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

This is all uncontaminated and all right next to eachother, so this could be Bret right now with 50 mph winds.




wow the NHC is really mass up with this storm man really
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or here
Time: 20:45:00Z
Coordinates: 27.85N 77.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 992.3 mb (~ 29.30 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 188 meters (~ 617 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.1 mb (~ 29.95 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 69° at 39 knots (From the ENE at ~ 44.8 mph)
Air Temp: 18.2°C (~ 64.8°F)
Dew Pt: 17.2°C (~ 63.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 43 mm/hr (~ 1.69 in/hr)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Time: 20:44:30Z
Coordinates: 27.8833N 77.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 991.9 mb (~ 29.29 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 194 meters (~ 636 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.6 mb (~ 29.96 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 76° at 37 knots (From the ENE at ~ 42.5 mph)
Air Temp: 18.1°C (~ 64.6°F)
Dew Pt: 17.2°C (~ 63.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 knots (~ 56.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 39 mm/hr (~ 1.54 in/hr
or here
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Time: 20:44:00Z
Coordinates: 27.9N 77.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 992.2 mb (~ 29.30 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 192 meters (~ 630 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.8 mb (~ 29.97 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 83° at 34 knots (From the E at ~ 39.1 mph)
Air Temp: 17.9°C (~ 64.2°F)
Dew Pt: 17.4°C (~ 63.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 43 mm/hr (~ 1.69 in/hr)
or here
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Repeat This year wont be like last year eventhrough it started that way IT WONT CONTINUE...if u believe it than get some raw crow ready.
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Time: 20:43:30Z
Coordinates: 27.9167N 77.7333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 991.8 mb (~ 29.29 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 199 meters (~ 653 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1015.2 mb (~ 29.98 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 89° at 31 knots (From the E at ~ 35.6 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Dew Pt: 17.5°C (~ 63.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 31 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 54 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 40 mm/hr (~ 1.57 in/hr)
or here
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
A lot of uncontaminated 50 mph TS winds where just found in TD2, and one was 69 mph.

56.0 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

54.0 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
Tropical Storm

53.4 knots (~ 61.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

49.0 knots (~ 56.3 mph)
Tropical Storm

52.9 knots (~ 60.9 mph)
Tropical Storm

58.6 knots (~ 67.4 mph)
Tropical Storm

52.8 knots (~ 60.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

This is all uncontaminated and all right next to eachother, so this could be Bret right now with 50 mph winds.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Chaser, you were right, it propagates it all throughout the Atlantic until towards the end of it's run, it takes it into the GOM and thereafter, into Florida, SWEET.
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957. Gaea
Be prepared for some surprises.
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Nothing contaminated here either.
Time: 20:43:00Z
Coordinates: 27.95N 77.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 992.4 mb (~ 29.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 196 meters (~ 643 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1015.4 mb (~ 29.98 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 92° at 28 knots (From the E at ~ 32.2 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Dew Pt: 17.7°C (~ 63.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 58 knots (~ 66.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 26 mm/hr (~ 1.02 in/hr)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Payed attention to the run...
Oh lord.Your gonna make him crap his pants with joy.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
nvere mine lol
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Quoting JLPR2:


No need to make fun of him/her.

Maybe the person was seeing an old image, but considering how this wave energized the Monsoon trof/ ITCZ, it may have a chance further down the road. But 48hrs would surprise me.

Grow up JFV. Being a little more serious wouldn't hurt you.
+100
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
here we go again with more fish storms this year!! starting to look like last year again


AGREED!!! Mexico and Fish better look out!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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