98L may develop into a tropical depression near Florida; Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on July 17, 2011

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 98L) has formed off the east coast of Florida, along the tail end of a cold front that pushed off the coast late last week. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression that will bring heavy rains to the northern Bahamas and east coast of Florida today through Tuesday. Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become more organized this morning, with an expanding area of intense thunderstorms, the beginnings of a surface circulation, and upper-level outflow on the east and north sides of the storm. Some rotation of 98L is also evident on long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida, but the rain showers are poorly organized and there is little evidence of low-level spiral banding. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 27 - 28°C, which is plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. There is dry, continental air over North Florida, and upper level winds out of the northwest are driving this dry air into the center of 98L, retarding development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L.

Forecast for 98L
The models are shy about developing 98L; only the HWRF model shows a tropical depression developing. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, over the next five days. NHC is giving 98L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Given the recent satellite and radar presentation of the storm, I'd put those odds higher, at 50%. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.

Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and 98L can be expected to move slowly at less than 5 mph over the next two days. The HWRF and GFDL models predict 98L will execute a clockwise loop, heading towards the coast of Florida on Monday, then looping northeastwards towards South Carolina later in the week. The track of 98L will depend strongly on how intense the storm gets; a weak system is likely to stay farther to the south, while a stronger system will "feel" upper level winds with a west-to-east component, and tend to move to the northeast, parallel to the coast.

None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat wave will remain entrenched over the center or eastern portion of the country during the coming week, so the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily continue through the remainder of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave later this week.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on at 08:26 UTC July 17, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, with the inner eyewall collapsing and a new, larger eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 3 Typhoon Ma-on is headed northwestward towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Once this process completes, Ma-on is expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 29 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range of 5 - 15 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm. The typhoon is unusually large, with winds of tropical storm force (39+ mph) extending out almost 350 miles to the north of the storm. A large portion of the south coast of Japan will receive tropical storm-force winds and large battering waves from Ma-on. Although the typhoon is currently a minimal Category 3 storm, its large size means that Ma-on has a tremendous amount of total kinetic energy, characteristic of a Category 5 storm. This means that Ma-on has the potential to bring a large and highly destructive storm to the coast on the right front side of where the eye makes landfall. If the eye remains just offshore, as some models are predicting, this storm surge will largely miss Japan, though.

Jeff Masters

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1102. Skyepony (Mod)
02L BRET

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Contrary to Previous waves from Africa, this one looks that has enough convection to hold together

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Brett is moving SSE right now and it seems to be pushed down by something, perhaps a ridge? Why are the models taking it north? Anyone's guess at this point.
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Quoting SugaCane:


Does anyone think it's possible for TD2/Bret to get pulled underneath the ridge, even though model consensus is not with that solution.


Anythings possible..just because the models are suppose to be more accurate then humans doesent mean they cant make mistakes too. I'd keep my eyes open if your anywhere near it..Anywhere from Florida to the upper SE coast is at risk.
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I made a quick tropical update on my website...It's been awhile. I'm also interested in any advice as far as what I could do to make my website better...all ideas welcome. Post a comment or whatever. Link
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Does anyone think it's possible for TD2/Bret to get pulled underneath the ridge, even though model consensus is not with that solution.
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It's hard to see this going out to be with the fish, what are some other thoughts as to a track at this point?
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When, and if, it's upgraded. The models will look a lot different tomorrow.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


well the good news is that we will not have to see you post until the next storm


LoL! too funny
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Google Earth tells me that the 5 p.m. position of TD2 is only 20 miles away from Grand Cay, the nearest Abaconian cay of note... and it's drifting S at 2mph. I really think the "fish" designation is moot at this point, though I do admit this is not the usual angle from which a storm normally approaches Grand Cay... lol
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Quoting SLU:
It's going to be a stretch for the NHC to call this a TS. They will most likely wait until it develops some more deep convection 1st.



It ?seems to me that 98 has backed up due east over the last couple days and is now back where it 'started'.
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1088. ackee
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Ball has been dropped once more by the NHC.





agree 100 think NHC is too conservative sometime
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1087. ncstorm
I just want to state for the record that I called this storm every since last week..toot!! yeah, I'm tooting my own horn..I said TS for tomorrow morning but it seems to want to intensify quicker which is now scary because it hasnt even had DMAX yet..However as I said this morning, I can see this becoming a hurricane and I still believe that..remember, Dr. Masters said, the stronger it gets, the more northward it will go..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
1086. SLU
It's going to be a stretch for the NHC to call this a TS. They will most likely wait until it develops some more deep convection 1st.

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Agree, but the USA should have never let it get to that point. They dominated but could not close it out.


Oh well, I wish they won it. They deserved it big time.

I see we also unoffically have TS Bret.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna go against the NHC and say this is a situation where the stronger it gets the more influence the ridge is gonna have on it and steer it SW and W towards the gulf.
I agree with you, I don't get what the models are seeing when they steer it NW. maybe I'm not looking at the models right, but the steering seems mostly non-existent or a slight westward flow.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


How would you know this? Unless of course, YOU are JFV. Which means you consistently bypass bans, which is against the rules.
I honestly don't think he is denying being JFV. Unfortunately for the human race, his brain can't catch up to his fingers.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Ball has been dropped once more by the NHC.







TBH I don't think anyone was expecting 02L this quickly.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Should see an update statement since it's only been a half hour since the 5pm.
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1079. Buhdog
NEW BLOG
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NEW BLOG ENTRY
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1077. 7544
bret is born and will just be sitting around for a while lets see if the high pulls a fast one wait watch and see
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Get your F5 key ready, Bret anytime.
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1075. Patrap
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Ball has been dropped once more by the NHC.





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Quoting Guaricandilla2011:


Uncalled for, you will be reported for this. It's unfathomably reprehensible for you to come into this ''WEATHER BLOG'' and post these types of fabricated fallacies, WOW.


How would you know this? Unless of course, YOU are JFV. Which means you consistently bypass bans, which is against the rules.
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so much for not having a July Storm..... bloggers and there predictions crack me up.

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1070. Patrap
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Vortex message indicates we have Tropical Storm Bret.
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we have Bret!!
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Thunderstorms need to re fire, starting to look a little ragged.



Just DMIN I presume.
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Thunderstorms need to re fire, starting to look a little ragged.

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow Ma-on has just fallen appart, that dry air...
more good news for Japan

I'm happy to hear that
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1063. Patrap
<
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Quoting Neapolitan:

And an even lamer way to lose. Ah, well...

At least it was Japan, and if any country "deserves" some good news, it's that one...
yep

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Agreed. Has nothing to do whatsoever with how well they play but happens all the time. Many a soccer game is won with penalty kicks.

Exactly. Has nothing to do with how the team plays together, or any of the effort put forward in the previous 2 hours of play, more just about luck than anything.


Ah well, back to the tropics now
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Right, I really must run.... but will be back to post to my blog later tonight, hopefully including some local information as welll....


L8r...
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1060. 7544
even if its ts bret would the steering stay the same off to the ne ?
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Well that was quick....Bret already? I assume this data isn't contaminated?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
000
URNT12 KNHC 172108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011
A. 17/20:54:00Z
B. 27 deg 30 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. NA
D. 45 kt
E. 041 deg 25 nm
F. 060 deg 43 kt
G. 041 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 18 C / 178 m
J. 24 C / 178 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 20:45:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
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Tropical Storm Bret
50 Mph
1009 MB
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Telling by the latest vortex it's pretty safe to say that 02L is now Tropical Storm Bret. Expect an upgrade at anytime.

D. 45 kt
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb


Now you show up Miami, expected you would be here way earlier.
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Wow Ma-on has just fallen appart, that dry air...
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 21:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:54:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°30'N 78°06'W (27.5N 78.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 133 miles (214 km) to the ENE (66°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 60° at 43kts (From the ENE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 178m (584ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 178m (584ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:45:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

I agree Taz, TS at 8pm
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Telling by the latest vortex it's pretty safe to say that 02L is now Tropical Storm Bret. Expect an upgrade at anytime.

D. 45 kt
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb




that did not take too long
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1052. ncstorm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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