June 2011: another month of exceptional extremes for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2011

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June 2011 was another month of remarkable extremes over the U.S. Overall, it was the 26th warmest and 19th driest June for the lower 48 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Extreme heat gripped much of the South, with Texas experiencing its hottest June on record, and 13 other states recording top-ten hottest Junes. Accompanying the heat was intense drought--New Mexico had its driest June on record, and four other states had top-ten driest Junes. While the southern Plains' 1950s drought of record is unsurpassed in terms of duration, the current drought in parts of Texas is more intense than the 1950s drought when measured by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The heat and drought contributed to the worst fire year in U.S. history, with 4.8 million acres burned by the end of the month, more than double the average from the previous ten years.

While the South baked and burned, California experienced its wettest June on record, and heavier than normal precipitation and prolonged snowmelt during the spring caused June flooding in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington. For the 3-month period April-May-June, the NOAA Climate Extremes Index indicated that it was the most extreme such period on record in the U.S. for precipitation, as measured by the percent area of the U.S. experiencing top 10% wettest or driest conditions. Heavy 1-day precipitation events were also at an all-time high during April-May-June 2011. Data for the Climate Extremes Index goes back to 1910.


Figure 1. Exceptional heat gripped most of the South during June 2011, with Texas experiencing its hottest June in 117 years of record keeping, and 13 other states recording a top-ten hottest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Exceptionally dry conditions accompanied the intense heat in the South during June 2011, with New Mexico experiencing its driest June in 117 years of record keeping, and four other states recording a top-ten driest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Tornado activity died down in June
According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, there were 177 preliminary tornado reports during June, which is below the national average for the month. On June 1st, a strong tornado tracked 39 miles across Massachusetts, marking the second longest tornado track on record for the state.

The Atlantic is quiet
A tropical wave near 10°N, 55°W, about 500 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rain to the southern Lesser Antilles and the northeast coast of South America on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind shear over the wave is low, 5 - 10 knots, but the wave is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin in time for development. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

The NOGAPS models is predicting that a strong tropical disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Sunday, similar to how Tropical Storm Arlene developed at the end of June. The latest runs of the other reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development of note over the next seven days, though the GFS model was showing development of a system off the coast of Africa this week, in its run from Sunday night.

Jeff Masters

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1314. hydrus
2:15 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21757
1313. belizeit
2:09 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting neutralenso:

hey can i have a link to the NAM model please. Thanks
Link
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 930
1311. Neapolitan
2:04 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13608
1310. MrstormX
2:00 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
97L is definitely a TD, radar and visible satellite images show that it is way better looking then say TD's #2 & #5 were last year, heck even Bonnie.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1308. Orcasystems
1:57 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1307. belizeit
1:57 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
NAM takes it to the NW passing close to the Honduran shore at 84 hrs.
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 930
1304. belizeit
1:53 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
GFS at 78 hrs has a TD making land fall in Nicaragua
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 930
1303. aspectre
1:50 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
1183 rod2635 "We may with to consider a genetically engineered salt water algae with high CO2 uptake, one that would only survive within a range of 200-400 ppm CO2 and within defined temperature and nutrient brackets. Deployed and allowed to thrive, these blooms might prove a short term nuisance til they self destructed as CO2 or temperature dropped below their requirements. However, I'd rather bet on this than the kindness of industrialized nations in reducing CO2."

Three problems:
1) The limiting factor on oceanic phytoplankton, algae, and cyanobacteria growth is the lack of a sufficient amount of dissolved nutrients, not carbon dioxide.
2) When blooms die, they release massive amounts of CO2.

3) Unicellular organisms are like comic book heroes/villains: What doesn't kill them, mutates them.
Stressors in the environment strong enough to cause damage causes normally asexual species to have sex, ie exchange genetic material during reproduction. Such mixing tends to lead to strain variations that can survive the stressor.
Stressors strong enough to kill causes them to lyse (ie break up to spread gene fragments) rather than undergo apoptosis (rot). Those gene fragments are in turn ingested by the (barely surviving) remainder as building blocks to create new genes. Slow enough population extinction rate often leads to mutant strains which can survive (and often thrive) in the conditions produced by the environmental stressor.

In other words, uncontrolled release of genetically altered microorganisms into the environment leads to a good chance of unleashing a plague as a unwanted side-effect.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1302. MrstormX
1:48 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1301. Minnemike
1:47 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Link
thanks Hydrus (and P.Pulse)! it's funny, when i went to your link Hydrus, the loop running chronologically starts on frame 11 of 24 :P
kinda odd, had me confused at first, but certainly no less helpful once realized :D
(edit: thanks to P451 as well!)
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1300. belizeit
1:47 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Soaked again.??
For the last couple of days it has been raining a inch or more per day yesterday saw 1.7 inches .
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 930
1299. hydrus
1:43 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting belizeit:
Sorry your wrong we are soaked already . According to GFS and Nam we should see another yellow circul near Venezuela later today .
Soaked again.??
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21757
1298. belizeit
1:42 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Central America is about to get soaked...
Sorry your wrong we are soaked already . According to GFS and Nam we should see another yellow circul near Venezuela later today .
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 930
1297. hydrus
1:42 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting neutralenso:
You guys understand that for now that Texas ridge will be blocking any tropical systems into the US but the models forecast it to weaken at the end of this week. if we get something like invest 97L that might help the drought there
Northern and western sections of Texas will probably miss out though...jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21757
1294. MrstormX
1:36 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Pressure continues to fall near 97L

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1293. hydrus
1:34 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Central America is about to get soaked...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21757
1292. RitaEvac
1:34 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Goodbye 97L, on to shore you go
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1291. CybrTeddy
1:33 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Unless the COC reforms or 97L slows down, it won't make it to the 2 pm TWO to be red.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24477
1290. ProgressivePulse
1:31 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting Minnemike:
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.



Link
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
1289. MrstormX
1:31 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wonder if this will bump up activity at all ;)

Has a very short time to develop.


Radar shows <4 hours before landfall, it is tightening up though. It's upgrade will depend on the forecaster.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1288. RitaEvac
1:28 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
That little BOC blob was fading when I went to sleep lastnight. CMC was on this..


Saw it yesterday over the southern Yucatan moving to it's location in the BOC, was racing then and racing now.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1287. CybrTeddy
1:28 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Wonder if this will bump up activity at all ;)

Has a very short time to develop.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24477
1286. Skyepony (Mod)
1:28 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38664
1285. hydrus
1:27 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting Minnemike:
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.
Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21757
1284. Skyepony (Mod)
1:27 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
That little BOC blob was fading when I went to sleep lastnight. CMC was on this..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38664
1283. MrstormX
1:25 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
97L is the most impressive invest this year, even pre-Arlene didn't look as impressive.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1282. ackee
1:24 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
I think 97L should be upgraded to a TD#2
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1376
1281. MrstormX
1:23 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
What the heck? I went to sleep at 11 last night with "There are no tropical cyclones at this time" and woke up with a 50%?

Amazing how fast these things can spin up. If this were to be named, it would be eerily similar to the last Bret we had in 2005. It actually already looks better than Bret of 2005:





Wouldn't that be something if we had two Brets exactly in the same place.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1280. HurricaneSwirl
1:21 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Reminds me a lot of an invest we saw last July that span up out of no where in the BOC, got up to 50% and didn't develop.


This one will likely end the same way too. Although the NHC has been somewhat less conservative this year..
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1279. CybrTeddy
1:20 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Reminds me a lot of an invest we saw last July that span up out of no where in the BOC, got up to 50% and didn't develop.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24477
1278. HurricaneSwirl
1:19 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
What the heck? I went to sleep at 11 last night with "There are no tropical cyclones at this time" and woke up with a 50%?

Amazing how fast these things can spin up. If this were to be named, it would be eerily similar to the last Bret we had in 2005. It actually already looks better than Bret of 2005:



Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1277. SLU
1:17 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
The highly controversial TD #2 of 2010.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Invest 97L of July 2011.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
1276. MrstormX
1:17 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1275. Minnemike
1:16 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1274. Neapolitan
1:16 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
97L is pouch 02L. This is from yesterday's synopsis:

SYNOPSIS 2011071200

P02L
15N, 83W
700hPa

ECMWF: Weakens over land, but an OW max persists until a pouch redevelops over the eastern Pacific. While the other models hint at southward motion, ECMWF continues moving west-northwestward.

GFS: Unlike yesterday, it appears to weaken more over land, which makes it more difficult to continue tracking it. Does it just continue moving westward and dissipate, or is it pulled into the developing monsoonal system farther to the southeast over Central America? Tough to say. Regardless, P02L is depicted as weak at 48 hours.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, except that UKMET depicts a large OW max that moves southward over the eastern Pacific after 48 hours. I did not track it because it never regains a distinct pouch center. UKMET also develops a strong system over Central America.

NOGAPS: Similar to UKMET in that it moves PO2L (or its remnant) southward after 48 hours. The difference is that NOGAPS has a stronger pouch with a more continuous track, so I continued to assign positions during what may, in the end, turn out to be a monsoonal development of a different system.

ECMWF -8.0 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
GFS -8.5 v700 & RH 48h
UKMET -8.2 v700 & RH 48h
NOGAPS -8.3 v700 120h
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13608
1273. MrstormX
1:14 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
50% now, nhc...good to see they care
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1272. weathermanwannabe
1:14 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting MrstormX:
Check the 97L radar mi amici

Link


Great link.............Thank You.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9329
1271. MrstormX
1:14 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131312
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1270. MrstormX
1:12 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Check the 97L radar mi amici

Link
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1269. Stormchaser2007
1:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Gotta love midget cyclone's.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1268. CybrTeddy
1:07 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
97L has about 4 hours left before landfall.

Development aint likely, especially since the NHC only has this at 10%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24477
1267. Stormchaser2007
1:06 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting MrstormX:


Any chance of a TCFA?


I doubt it...

The NHC will more than likely let this one go.

Very interesting how quickly this spun up though.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1266. SLU
1:04 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Not far from a TD but landfall might prevent the NHC from upgrading.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
1265. MrstormX
1:04 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest



Any chance of a TCFA?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1264. hydrus
1:03 PM GMT on July 13, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21757

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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