2011 now tied for 1st for the most EF-5 tornadoes in one year: 6
The National Weather Service completed damage surveys last month in Alabama on the massive April 25 - 27 tornado outbreak, and found evidence to upgrade another tornado from the outbreak to EF-5 status with winds in excess of 200 mph: the Rainsville, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011. Damage included houses that were completely removed from foundations and debris scattered for about one mile, trees that were debarked, and a few mobile homes completely destroyed with debris strewn for about a mile downwind. EF-5 damage included a pickup truck that was thrown and torn into multiple pieces, and an 800 pound steel safe anchored to a foundation that was torn away, thrown 600 feet, and had its door ripped from its hinges. Twenty-six people died in the tornado.
Figure 1. The remains of a school bus that was blown across Highway 75 in Rainsville, Alabama during the EF-5 tornado of April 27, 2011. This bus was originally sitting in the parking lot adjacent to the building in the distance to the right. Image credit: National Weather Service.
Figure 2. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1974, with 77 of these tornadoes. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes, making any link to climate change for this year's terrible tornado season difficult to support. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)
Six EF-5 tornadoes have now been confirmed by the National Weather Service in 2011. This ties the year 1974 for most top-end tornadoes in one year. Here are the 2011 EF-5 tornadoes:
1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)
2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)
3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)
4) The April 27, 2011 Rainsville, Alabama tornado (26 killed, 34 mile path length.)
5) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (157 killed, 14 mile path length.)
6) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)
Video 1. The EF-5 tornado that hit Rainsville, Alabama on April 27, 2011 was caught on video as it was re-forming. Tornado formation videos are rare, and this video shows how dangerous it can be to wait until you see a tornado to take shelter. A powerful tornado can form right on top of you with only a few seconds warning.
The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss. The only model showing potential activity over the next seven days is the NOGAPS, with predicts that a low pressure system with tropical characteristics may form on Saturday off the coast of North Carolina, in association with a cold front pushing off the coast. If such a storm does form, it would move northeastwards out to sea, and likely not be a threat to land.
I'll be back with a new post Wednesday or Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I was attempting to answer a hurricane-related question for a client a few days before Wilma hit Florida, so I Googled for some help and found what I needed in one of Dr. Masters' posts. I lurked for four years after that before finally signing up.
an area of disturbed weather located in the cental atlantic near 40 W is beginning to show signs of organisation. cloudiness has increase in the area, and the low cloud field is showing signs of convergence.Looking at the shear map from CIMMS this morning the area is within 5-20 knot shear at the moment with shear values to decrease the next 24 hrs. there is considerable convergence and divergence as the system progresses westward. the 850mb vorticity is not that strong. the only model that is showing development is the gfs.we have known the aggession of the gfs in the early part of seasons before and we have to wait to see if any of the reliable models come on board. all the same it is an interesting feature and one rhat should be monitored closely
There is indeed a low associated with it. The CMC develops this system off the US Coast, not off Florida.
Sure thing here you go.
D.R. Radar image
You can get more tropical radars towards the bottom of my TC links page.
Hope that helps. adrian
Seems to be out of date though (June)
Sorry for the late answer...
It's not a Wave apparently.
A low-level trough, that has brought the convection up from the ITCZ.
I would think WNW would be my guess for movement initially.
Looking at the pressure here this morning it was 1014. Winds were SSE.
A wave would have shown a lower pressure.
Plenty of rain so far today....
1205 GMT (8:05 a.m. EDT)
The weather outlook for Friday has worsened to just a 30 percent chance that conditions will be good enough to launch Atlantis. Thunderstorms around the Kennedy Space Center will be the concern for the 11:26 a.m. EDT launch time.
The odds improve slightly to 40 percent favorable on Saturday and jump to 60 percent on Sunday.
"High clouds are streaming into the area from the southwest associated with convection in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico caused by an upper level low. Easterly flow continues today which will cause any developing weather to remain inland. A tropical wave in the Bahamas is moving west-northwest and will impact Florida on Thursday, increasing moisture and bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon and evening," forecasters reported this morning.
"By Friday, the wave will merge over Florida with an upper level trough, causing the wave to stall over the Florida area. This will bring significant cloud cover with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms causing concerns for launch weather. Our primary concerns for launch are showers and thunderstorms within 20 nautical miles of the Shuttle Landing Facility, flight through precipitation, and cumulus clouds.
"Due to the launch time moving earlier and a slightly dryer atmosphere each day, the threat of weather decreases each day; therefore, the probability of Kennedy Space Center weather prohibiting launch decreases as well."
I'm still going to try to head out there, but in all likelihood its going to scrub Friday and more than likely on Saturday but we could get lucky, its Florida, weather in Florida in the summer is wild. My bets are on Sunday AM launch at 10:38:30 AM.
The breakdown to-date:
8,803 new record highs
4,409 record highs tied with existing records
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13,252 record daily highs
7,681 new record high minimums
4,257 record high minimums tied with existing records
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11,938 record daily high minimums
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25,190 record daily highs and high minimums set or tied
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3,601 new record lows
1,851 record lows tied with existing records
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5,461 record daily lows
7,210 new record low maximums
2,418 record low maximums tied with existing records
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9,628 record daily low maximums
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15,089 record daily lows or low maximums set or tied
Coincidentally, the "coldest" week of the year--that is, the one in which record lows of all kinds outnumbered record highs by the greatest margin--wasn't in winter, as you might expect, but rather the third week in May when an Omega block brought down massive amounts of cool air. Another "cold" week was the one following the Super Outbreak of tornadoes in late April.
The high temp/low temp ratio for the year as a whole is 1.67:1.
I see my shark conversation was carried on all night long, lol.
Cancelled our Orlando hotel reservation for tomorrow night. Will head straight to our vacation spot in Palm Bay. Depending on odds, and everything else, we may or may not go up to Titusville. :(
Yes sir! That's one that's gonna be headed our way come Friday night!
There is an abundance of Upper Divergence and Lower Convergence, something we've not seen from the get go with an AOI. Previous AOI's have hard to gradually get lower level convergence, but this one already has it.
Wind Shear at this time isn't all too bad, and it should decrease as we head through the rest of today and into tomorrow. But, as it approaches the Caribbean, it should encounter moderate Wind Shear, if it doesn't decrease any, which it hasn't been doing.
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 6th, with Video
Viewing: 451 - 475
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