Heavy rains from Arlene kill 17 in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:36 PM GMT on July 03, 2011

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Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Arlene created flash floods and mudslides that killed eleven people in Mexico over the past three days, according to media reports. Rainfall amounts as high as ten inches were estimated by satellite over the mountainous regions of Mexico where most of the fatalities occurred. The soil in the region was prone to more dangerous flash floods than usual, due to extreme drought conditions that killed much of the soil-stabilizing vegetation.


Figure 1. Satellite-based rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite for June 24 - July 1, 2011. The solid black line shows the path of Arlene with storms symbols marking the 00 and 12Z positions and intensity. Most of the heaviest rain occurs offshore and along the coast. Over land, rainfall totals exceeded 100 to 150 mm of rain (~4 to 6 inches, shown in green) over most of the central east coast of Mexico. In the vicinity of where Arlene made landfall, there are higher amounts in excess of 250 mm (~10 inches, shown in orange). In addition to the rain from Arlene, a passing tropical wave contributed to the rainfall totals over the Yucatan prior to Arlene's formation. Image credit: NASA.

The heat is on
Sizzling summer temperatures set new daily maximum temperature records over many states in the Southwest and Midwest U.S. yesterday. Most notably, Phoenix Arizona hit 118°F, their hottest day since it was 118 on 21 July 2006. If the long-range GFS model is correct, the Midwest could be in for one of its hottest heat waves in recent years next weekend, when a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to move in.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation through July 10.

Enjoy your holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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720. hydrus
2:02 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
718. HurrAndrew
2:02 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
New Blog!
Member Since: October 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
717. hydrus
1:50 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
NAM shows the low off the east coast of Florida..This could change of course..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
716. hydrus
1:48 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22294
715. AtHomeInTX
1:47 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Since it's slow here's a laugh. Do ya think he said "Watch this!" before he did it. Lol.



Truck stuck after man tries to drive across Lake Sam Rayburn

July 04, 2011 12:29 PM
Scott Lawrence

JASPER COUNTY - by Steve W. Stewart/KJAS - An unidentified Orange man drew the ire of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers over the Independence Day weekend when he tried to drive a pickup truck across Lake Sam Rayburn, but got it stuck on an exposed mud flat. The incident happened at about 3:00 Sunday afternoon, near the eastern edge of the spillway.

According to Jasper County deputies, the man successfully drove the truck from the Twin Dikes boat ramp to Rattlesnake Island, which is a popular spot for swimming and sun bathing on its white sand beaches. However, when the people on the island complained and began calling 911, the man tried to drive the late model Ford F-250 with large mud tires back to the mainland, and that's when it bogged down on the exposed mud flat.

The lake is currently very shallow due to an ongoing drought. Normal pool level for the lake is 164 feet above sea level, but the water is currently at 155 feet.

Leon Clark and his crew from Jasper Towing & Recovery worked for six hours before they were finally able to pull the truck out of the lake at about 9:00 Saturday night. Clark said he used every truck in his fleet, and broke most of his chains and cables in the process.

Officials said the man was tested for alcohol, but there were no signs that he had been drinking.

The man was issued three citations by the Corps of Engineers which will bring hefty fines for the stunt, and he'll also have a big bill from Jasper Towing & Recovery.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
714. ncstorm
1:46 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
NAM..

A lot of rain coming at the SE coast..

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
713. kwgirl
1:46 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Good morning all. Hope everyone had a good July 4th. We finally got some good rain this weekend in the keys. Not enough to ruin the holiday, but enough to soak the ground and houses so when the Bubba's lit off their illegal fireworks, we didn't have a fire anywhere. Kept the temps down as well. As far as I am concerned, it can stay this way all summer:)
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
711. Orcasystems
1:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
710. Chicklit
1:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
709. Chicklit
1:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2011


Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
708. caribbeantracker01
12:53 PM GMT on July 05, 2011


this morning we are noticing that the cmc may try to pan out however i am not too sure if this will last however there are somethings pointing to the second name storm so either later today or tomorrow we will see if it persist.
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
707. weaverwxman
12:53 PM GMT on July 05, 2011

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 051137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





I think they could have even said 96 hours IMO
Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
706. RitaEvac
12:51 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Area north of DR gulf bound with the ridge setting up north of it. Reminds me of the setup when Rita was steered westward in the Gulf

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
705. Tazmanian
12:43 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
real quiet blog this am its like no one on here or what



they have there own life keepr a lot of of this dont have time too blog some time and vary busy in the AMs geting ready for work and that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
704. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:41 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
703. HurricaneDean07
12:32 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Morning everyone, so the little system north of Hispaniola was looking somewhat better this morning. Waning now, but still and area to watch in the coming days.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
702. LightningCharmer
12:26 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Mornin' All

Was watching the Bahamas earlier. ULL east of Florida appears to be strengthening; blob to its southwest, 'hard to tell.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
701. weathermanwannabe
12:26 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
real quiet blog this am its like no one on here or what


Just lurking for now but here is a good recent article on current sea level rise: Fastest Sea-Level Rise in Two Millennia Linked to Increasing Temperatures

Link:



Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9376
700. GeoffreyWPB
12:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Miami NWS Discussion

A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE S BAHAMAS/E CUBA MOVES TOWARD S FLA AND OVER THE S FLA
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AND INTO THE GULF BY EARLY FRI. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET ALL AGREE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME DIFFERENCE WITH SHORTER
RUNS MODELS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE FORMER MODELS. THE
BOTTOM LINE...PASSAGE OF THE WAVE INCREASES DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING INTO THE 2-2.4 INCH RANGE WHICH MEANS
BETTER CHANCES OR RAIN THU AND FRI BEFORE A DECREASING TREND IS
NOTED AS THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS BRINGING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR.

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11517
699. splash3392
12:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
I'm in and out doing emails. But yeah it's real quiet. We anchored out all weekend and got caught in a microburst satuday night. That opened my eyes for several hours after!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 646
698. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
real quiet blog this am its like no one on here or what
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55634
697. splash3392
12:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
Good morning all, hope everyone had a great holiday! Tropics Re quiet and that's ok. I know Aqua needs rain and most of Texas, i'll keep my fingers crossed for ya.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 646
696. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2011
2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
90B.INVEST

Southern Hemisphere
99S.INVEST
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55634
695. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:57 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55634
694. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:54 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
Good morning dayshift- looks like I'm a little early this morning.

Read thru the discussion from my local mets- they got pretty heavy hopeful wording on lotsa rain for the NE Fla region this weekend. Reading discussion from a little further down the eastern coast, not so aggressive.

Maybe it's justa tease to get me thru the week. Carrot-n-Donkey, rain-n-Aqua, even if it's just a tease, it'll work.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55634
693. weathermanwannabe
11:53 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Good Morning All......Looks like many of the am regulars still recovering from the 4th. Hope all had a safe holiday. Tropics quiet this morning and nothing expected in the short-term so expect discussions regarding, a) the models, b) random predictions for the month of July, c) random predictions for the entire season, d) random "doom" and landfall predictions for the Caribbean and the Gulf with the current A-B high set-up, e) discussions of how the season will be a bust, f) several postings of the "peak of the season" graphic, and g) random discussions from everything from GW to Politics. Just the usual at this time of the Year............ :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9376
692. stoormfury
11:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Morning, the the eatl, catl, and the gomex are very quiet this morning. The reliabable models are showing no development for the next 10 days. This should be time for residents to start preparing for what looks to be an active season.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
691. Cotillion
11:12 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Morning folks.

Looks pretty benign out there.

Couple of earthquakes just south of Osaka, Japan, almost right on top of each other within about 15 minutes - a 4.7 and a 5.5. Moderate size, but so close to each other is peculiar.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
689. Tropicsweatherpr
10:46 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Good morning to all.

It was a good evening for fireworks at the Condado lagoon with clear skies.

Finnally,we will have two dry days in a row as yesterday was spectacular with sunny and warm weather and today will be the same.

TSR released their July forecast and still they are forecasting an active season (14/8/4)

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14764
688. BahaHurican
10:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2011


Based on NHC/TAFB analysis, it seems the wave axis is closer to the isolated cluster of clouds over Exuma.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
687. BahaHurican
10:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Hmmm.... looking nowhere as exciting as a few hours ago... but still should bring some rain.



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
686. BahaHurican
10:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Hey.... looks like the rest of the early morning crew is still asleep.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
685. BahaHurican
10:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Morning all.

aqua, how u doing this am? Just woke up, but not getting up b4 7 if I can help it. Nice to stay in bed 4 once.... lol

I'm hoping that rain gets to us by this evening... there have been some hopeful signs. Wonder what kind of rain CRS got from this; they had spectacular light show down there in Provo last night, according to him. Looks like SE and Central Bahamas should feel the effects today....

Coming ur way, hopefully.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
684. aquak9
9:42 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Good morning dayshift- looks like I'm a little early this morning.

Read thru the discussion from my local mets- they got pretty heavy hopeful wording on lotsa rain for the NE Fla region this weekend. Reading discussion from a little further down the eastern coast, not so aggressive.

Maybe it's justa tease to get me thru the week. Carrot-n-Donkey, rain-n-Aqua, even if it's just a tease, it'll work.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
683. bigwes6844
9:18 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting druseljic:


Cindy Wiki
Yeah it was a horrible storm. and i rmember it was hot as hell when all da lights went out. that storm wouldnt speed up for nothing.
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
682. druseljic
8:46 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting bigwes6844:
cindy anniversary here in new orleans


Cindy Wiki
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
681. bigwes6844
8:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
cindy anniversary here in new orleans
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
680. islander101010
8:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
where is our semi permanent tutt? too much stuff going on in the basin does not look favorable
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4992
679. druseljic
8:17 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:




Yeah, it lost quite a bit of its punch.


It doesn't seem to be receiving any benefit from DMAX which should be occurring over its area now.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
678. JLPR2
8:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting druseljic:
Convection seems to be waning a bit in our "area of interest". Diurnal max should be in that area in a few hours, if I'm thinking right. Does anyone (if there's anyone left on) think it will have an effect?




Yeah, it lost quite a bit of its punch.
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677. druseljic
8:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Thanks, Tom that was a big help.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
676. TomTaylor
8:10 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting druseljic:
I always seem to get confused on this one. Can someone explain the convergence and divergence maps and how they relate to potential tropical development?
well I'm assuming you are referring to the CIMSS maps (if that's not the case then let me know)

Anyway, the convergence map is for the lower levels of the atmosphere, while the divergence map is for the upper levels of be atmosphere. On the low level convergence map, positive values indicate low level convergence, while negative values indicate low level divergence. On the upper level divergence map, positive values indicate upper level divergence, while negative values indicate upper level convergence.

Now, on to what this all means...

Convergence and divergence can basically be viewed as opposites. Convergence is basically the pilling up of air, while divergence is the opposite..the spreading out of air. With regards to tropical cyclone development, you want to have upper level divergence and low level convergence. The reason being is upper level divergence draws air away from the top of thunderstorms forcing air to surge up from the surface to fill in the place of the air which is being spread out in the upper atmosphere. This action enhances thunderstorms and lowers surface pressures promoting low level convergence (as air piles up to fill in the low pressure). The reason you want low level convergence, or the pulling up of air, is because when you have air pilling up at the surface, it is forced to go somewhere. With no other direction to go, this air is forced upward, where it again promotes thunderstorms and lowers surface pressures.

To recap, you want low level convergence and upper level divergence if you want development or intensification to occur. Low level divergence and upper level convergence inhibit development or intensification. Hope this helps! Night and happy 4th!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
675. druseljic
7:59 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
So is it basically akin to a lower level low and an upper level higher pressure such as with an anticylone producing favorable outflow?
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674. TomTaylor
7:56 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Cloud top temps in the thunderstorms appear to be warming, which would indicate a slowing down in the convection. Dmax is still to come, however, so convection should continue to some degree for the next several hours. Upper level conditions remain marginal...shear is still pretty strong, but divergence is good. saw someone mention earlier "so much for shear slowing this system down" (something along these lines), and I'd just like to say moderate shear like this does not necessarily prevent convection or thunderstorms. Especially when it is associated with divergence aloft. Instead, shear usually inhibits organization, preventing blobs of thunderstorms from progressing into t storms or preventing t storms from further intensifying.

Anyway, shear should lessen somewhat, and divergence should remain aloft. However, shear will still be present and should prevent this broad area of vorticity associated with this low level trough from becoming anything...at least for the next 3 days. Additionally, this system should continue NW and head toward Florida, so it doesn't have much time.

Looking at the models, the CMC is no longer developing this system. GFS and ECMWF still do not develop this system. At the moment, only the NOGAPS develops this system.

with model confidence dropping, shear forecasted to lower but remain an issue, and land interaction coming up soon, I doubt this will develop. Anything could happen though, so we will have to keep an eye on it. also wouldn't be surprised if this gets an invest status at some point.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
673. SouthALWX
7:54 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Convergence is generally mapped at the lower levels. High convergence implies both lowered pressures/heights there and the tendency for lift.

Divergence is generally mapped at the upper levels. High Divergence implies both raised pressures/heights and again the tendency for lift.


Convergence is critical for development at the lower levels while divergence is associated with venting or exhausting. In general, Circular patterns in these two measurements are indicative of potential or occuring cyclogenesis. Other patterns can indicate other processes and are not always cyclone indicators. (ULL interaction etc)

edit to note: circular patterns aren't themselves always indicators of TC genesis, but are the most common patterns for it. Those maps aren't entirely useful by themselves, but are great tools to add to our toolbox.
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672. druseljic
7:50 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
I always seem to get confused on this one. Can someone explain the convergence and divergence maps and how they relate to potential tropical development?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
671. druseljic
7:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
No, I'm just the average run of the wash American. The nick came from one of my characters in an RPG. Sort of became my internet ID.

This one really has my eye. If nothing else the visual as it appears on the infrared is interesting. Cyclogenesis is a fascinating process...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
670. PolishHurrMaster
7:22 AM GMT on July 05, 2011
Quoting druseljic:
Hey, someone is still up with me tonight!



Will be up to watch it. My three day weekend started tonight, no work til Friday. Looks interesting enough to warrant attention, will see if the Dmax has any effect. Develop or not, I just love watching the process. It fascinates me!

Are you Croatian?
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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